Making a player read based on things the player has done this hand
 

Pacific Poker 10/20 6max. Somewhat loose game but most players are reasonable and not stupid.

The button is almost totally unknown, but I do have some information about him. I have only seen him play one hand out of several, and in that hand he called a raise from the BB and check/folded a flop with an A on it.

Folded to me in the CO and I raise K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], button who is unknown coldcalls, blinds fold

2 to the flop
Flop: (5.3 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I bet, button calls

Turn: (3.65 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I check, button bets, I call.

River: (5.65BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I bet, button raises, I fold.

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

Re: Making a player read based on things the player has done this hand
 

I hate your turn call. Rest seems OK.

Re: Making a player read based on things the player has done this hand
 

i'd prefer bet/folding the turn over check/calling and then bet/folding the river when you hit a pair.

aseem

Re: Making a player read based on things the player has done this hand
 

I like bet/folding this turn, it seems that you have alot of fold equity and alot of improve equity here, and he's probably only raising a Q here.

Re: Making a player read based on things the player has done this hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pacific Poker 10/20 6max. Somewhat loose game but most players are reasonable and not stupid.

The button is almost totally unknown, but I do have some information about him. I have only seen him play one hand out of several, and in that hand he called a raise from the BB and check/folded a flop with an A on it.

Folded to me in the CO and I raise K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], button who is unknown coldcalls, blinds fold

2 to the flop
Flop: (5.3 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I bet, button calls

Turn: (3.65 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I check, button bets, I call.

River: (5.65BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I bet, button raises, I fold.

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your only read seems to indicate he might be a little weak tight. Just calling the turn raise is pretty bad. I'd either C/F or bet out. I'd probably bet out given the board. If he raises be done with it. The river bet is bad I think, since he'll probably bet a nine, and has a queen here often. I'd just C/C

Re: Making a player read based on things the player has done this hand
 

[ QUOTE ]

Your only read seems to indicate he might be a little weak tight. Just calling the turn raise is pretty bad. I'd either C/F or bet out. I'd probably bet out given the board. If he raises be done with it. The river bet is bad I think, since he'll probably bet a nine, and has a queen here often. I'd just C/C

[/ QUOTE ]

We've got a ton of outs on the turn, something like 22% equity.


[ QUOTE ]
The river bet is bad I think, since he'll probably bet a nine, and has a queen here often. I'd just C/C

[/ QUOTE ]

Alot of hands that we're beating check behind here that would have called. That's alot of value to give up.

Re: Making a player read based on things the player has done this hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
The river bet is bad I think, since he'll probably bet a nine, and has a queen here often. I'd just C/C

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't you think it's quite likely this player will check behind some sort of pocket pair that he would also call a bet with but not raise on the end?

I also think it's fairly likely that he will check behind a 9, although I agree he is often betting it. But why give him a chance to check behind with it if it's very unlikely he'll raise me with it?

Re: Making a player read based on things the player has done this hand
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The river bet is bad I think, since he'll probably bet a nine, and has a queen here often. I'd just C/C

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't you think it's quite likely this player will check behind some sort of pocket pair that he would also call a bet with but not raise on the end?

I also think it's fairly likely that he will check behind a 9, although I agree he is often betting it. But why give him a chance to check behind with it if it's very unlikely he'll raise me with it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, yes. I'm tired and drunk, and that makes me think weak tight. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: Making a player read based on things the player has done this hand
 

Go to bed donk. I just bet the river and called a raise with eight high. I wish Elix Powers was here.

Re: Making a player read based on things the player has done this hand
 

For those of you wanting to fold the turn, I'm curious as to what range of hands you put villian on. Due to the way he has played this hand,

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,084 games 0.005 secs 1,416,800 games/sec

Board: Qc Qd 9h 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 24.8024 % [ 00.21 00.03 ] { KsTc }
Hand 2: 75.1976 % [ 00.72 00.03 ] { TT-22, AQs-A9s, KQs-K9s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, T9s, AQo-A9o, KQo-K9o, QJo-QTo, JTo }


Based on my range we have 24.8% equity. Based on the pot odds our breakeven equity is 1/5.65 = 17.7%.

callEV = (-1BB)+(.248 * 5.65BB) +ImpliedOdds
0 = -1BB + 1.40BB + ImpliedOdds
ImpliedOdds = -0.4 BB

So if our reverse implied odds add up to -0.4 BB or more, this is a fold. ALthough they are probably negative, I do not think they are nearly that negative.