Re: 15/30 AJ
 

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The river is a very good time for a value bluff if you're called on the turn.

Rob

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UTG is 40/14/1.2

no its not.

Re: 15/30 AJ
 

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The river is a very good time for a value bluff if you're called on the turn.

Rob

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UTG is 40/14/1.2

no its not.

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Are you even trying to put this guy on a range of hands?

Rob

Re: 15/30 AJ
 

id rather 3-bet preflop than check/raise the flop(but might just fold), hopefully that would give me some better idea of both villains hand ranges(if BB calls) and the inititive on the flop

im checking the river, i dont know if im calling or folding against this guy though, i really doubt hes folding a better ace if you bet

Re: 15/30 AJ
 

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The river is a very good time for a value bluff if you're called on the turn.

Rob

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UTG is 40/14/1.2

no its not.

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Are you even trying to put this guy on a range of hands?

Rob

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77, 88, 99, TT are not folding if they call the turn. a worse ace will fold. So he folds AQ and AJ, and doesn't call with anything we can beat. "value bluff" in this hand is bs.

Re: 15/30 AJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]


The river is a very good time for a value bluff if you're called on the turn.

Rob

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UTG is 40/14/1.2

no its not.

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Are you even trying to put this guy on a range of hands?

Rob

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what exactly could he be folding that beats you or calling with that you beat?

i think he folds AQ or better never, AT or maybe A9s are the only possibilities that i see him calling with that we are ahead of, i dont see how this can be a bet

also after trying to put him on some kind of range, i think we can fold if he bets

Re: 15/30 AJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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The river is a very good time for a value bluff if you're called on the turn.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG is 40/14/1.2

no its not.

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Are you even trying to put this guy on a range of hands?

Rob

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77, 88, 99, TT are not folding if they call the turn. a worse ace will fold. So he folds AQ and AJ, and doesn't call with anything we can beat. "value bluff" in this hand is bs.

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The question is whether or not you realistically think he can have 77-TT here and whether or not they outweigh the potential of a hand like AQ or AJ folding or a hand like AT or A9 calling.

A 40/14/1.2 is not a passive player. While they might slow down with 77 (which is not a super likely candidate for a raise UTG from them), they will usually push harder with 99 or TT. Sometimes they are calling intending to raise the turn and they get scared -- I understand that. But when I've played in this game, I've been 3-bet by various overpairs much more often than I've been called down by them after the flop.

If you tell me you're 100% positive he calls with AJ and AQ, folds A9 and AT, and (obviously) calls with 77-TT, then yes, this is a simple check-fold. But it isn't that simple. When you weight combinations and hands and the potential value of bluffing out better hands and chops given the size of the pot, then include the possibility (again, slim but not nonexistent) of worse hands calling, you can come up with some sort of basic idea. I've done this once before in a situation where you should be betting AK UI on the river against a PFR on a raggy board, and while the situation is certainly different now, it's still something that you need to approach from all angles.

Rob

Re: 15/30 AJ
 

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The question is whether or not you realistically think he can have 77-TT here and whether or not they outweigh the potential of a hand like AQ or AJ folding or a hand like AT or A9 calling.


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i know that, that was the nature of my very first post of this thread, i just kept it short and to the point.

your argument has merit for sure, but IMO your range of hands is too small, as well as the chances you put on villian calling the river with a worse ace. Finally, it doesn't make sense to say he will call often with A9 or AT, but will also often fold AQ or AJ.

Re: 15/30 AJ
 

Everyone seems hung up on the value bluff. No one thinks we should bet to keep from being pushed off the best hand?

- Jim

Re: 15/30 AJ
 

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Everyone seems hung up on the value bluff. No one thinks we should bet to keep from being pushed off the best hand?

- Jim

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that is certainly a factor, but very unlikely given the villians range of hands (at least my range). and even if this is the case a check/raise would be better than a bet IMO.