Lead or CR this river?
 

Live 5-5 NL Game in Pittsburgh

Game is remarkably passive, 10 handed, often with 5-7 players seeing the flop for $5. Preflop raises below 10x BB often do little more than eliminate 1 or 2 limpers. I have ~1000 behind and Villain has ~550 at the start of hand.

UTG+1 limps, MP1 limps, Villain limps in CO, button limps, SB checks, Hero looks down at the 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and checks. 6 to the flop of:

6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, <font color="red"> </font> Hero bets $25, <font color="black"> </font> two folds, Villain calls $25, button and SB fold.

TURN ($80): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks, Villain checks.

At this point I am 90% sure that the villain has clubs, and probably not nut clubs or he would have made a stab at the turn. Anyone like a bet on the turn rather than a check?

RIVER ($80): J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="red"> </font> Hero bets $200...

<font color="black"> </font> Obviously I made the overbet b/c of my relative assuredness of what he held. But I also know that he would have bet, probably about 50, had I checked it to him (if he does indeed have the flush). He is the kind of player that has a tough time laying down a made hand but I think there is a decent chance that a river CR could strike some fear into him. Does anyone like a CR all-in here rather than leading out with the overbet?

Re: Lead or CR this river?
 

bet that turn and your river bet will not look like an overbet. I dont see the merit for a C/R on the river given that the game is being played passive.

Re: Lead or CR this river?
 

bet at least 60 on turn and 150 on river. maybe he raises his flush. Cant expect loose passives to bet your hand for you.

Re: Lead or CR this river?
 

Villain in this hand is actually one the of better players in the game (though that doesn't meant he's any good in the grand scope). He'd been trying to play a big pot with me for a few hours ever since I bluffed him out of a big pot early in the night and showed it. He'd been trying to make moves on me (cold-calling behind me with his big hands) with no success. I changed seats to get position on him and another player of similar attitude a few orbits before this hand.

I think I definitely should have bet the turn in order to increase the likelihood of getting his stack. He might be good enough to fold a lousy club draw on the turn though, which was my thought frame during the hand. For this reason I checked and hoped desperately that he got there on the river. I think a CR of the river might have been warranted as he would have been pot stuck had I bet the turn, but I did not so the overbet seemed the better play.

Re: Lead or CR this river?
 

I think not betting the turn is poor.

Re: Lead or CR this river?
 

Leading 3/4 of the pot on turn seems awful to me. Villian's fishing for [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s, so we want to give him "correct" pot odds to fish for them.

I bet 1/3 of the pot on the turn.

Now the river club hits, and you're out of position, and pretty sure he has the flush. Your turn bet looks a lot like a flush draw, and an overbet on the river should certainly signal a flush to him; if he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]orK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] flush at this point, then prepare to stack him off. Depending on how competent he is, an overbet might fold a small flush-- this would suck.

I say weak lead turn for 25-30$, and bet about 250 on the river.

Re: Lead or CR this river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Leading 3/4 of the pot on turn seems awful to me. Villian's fishing for [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]'s, so we want to give him "correct" pot odds to fish for them.

I bet 1/3 of the pot on the turn.

I say weak lead turn for 25-30$.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed - bet the same $25 on the turn that you bet on the flop. You want to give him about 4:1 (ie bet 1/3 of pot) on his 4:1 flush draw or 3:1 flush draw + gutshot etc.