Super Thin River Value Bet ?
 

6-Max Table at Party

Uknown who just sat down limps UTG, MP (90.63/8.33/1.55 over 100 hands, that guy from my other hand) limps, folded to me in the SB and I call with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], BB checks. Four to the flop for 4.4 small bets.

The flop is 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Its checked to MP who bets, I checkraise, BB folds, UTG calls two cold, MP calls. 3 to the turn for 5 big bets.

The turn is 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I bet they both call.

The river is the 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]...

So is this a value bet or what?

Re: Super Thin River Value Bet ?
 

yuck. I think I want to check. I feel like if it checks to MP he's going to bet a lot more hands than he'd call with. UTG in the middle sure screws everything up but I think he's got us in trouble anyways. if I was in position, or against saner opponents (ones that would never bet a worse hand) I think i'd bet/fold here.

Re: Super Thin River Value Bet ?
 

I'd only bet if the following critea were met IMO:
1, They won't bluff raise you.
2, They go to showdown with less than TP.
3, They will call more than they will bet.


If thats the case(You've given me PT stats over 100 hands but no read? I assume datamined ? or lazyness [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] ?)

If you have no other read for us, i think its a Check/call. I dont see us winning much but i do seeit getting raised.

HU Vs MP sure i'll bet as he's loose and bet even more if he wont bluff raise.

Vs two guys i see this bet being raised way to much meaning we're losing our investment.

C/C is best as we'll see a showdown, wont lose a bet if it is raised and won't fold anything we lose to anyhow. Also it may induce one of them to bluff it.

Re: Super Thin River Value Bet ?
 

What is the level?
what worse hands do you expect to call you? Pocket sevens? Jack high straight draw?

Re: Super Thin River Value Bet ?
 

I raise preflop. I also normally bet the flop, but considered you have a semi-maniac with the button, I like the check raise. River is tough, but I would rather bet/fold to UTGs raise. You are going to have to call a single bet anyway, and I doubt you are getting bluffed out here. I think you get value from some hands that will check behind.

Re: Super Thin River Value Bet ?
 

Tough spot. I'm checking and calling 1 bet, but not overcalling. It's hard to believe that the BB is coldcalling 2 without a flushdraw/Ten/OESD. All of those beat you on the river. If BB was passive then I would check-fold to his bet. If he checks then I'm calling an MP bet.

Re: Super Thin River Value Bet ?
 

Well MP is certainly capable of making a bluff raise here. I've seen him made a lot of weird bluffs and plays before. UTG is an unknown.

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C/C is best as we'll see a showdown, wont lose a bet if it is raised and won't fold anything we lose to anyhow. Also it may induce one of them to bluff it.

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I think you've convinced me that checking is best.

Re: Super Thin River Value Bet ?
 

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Tough spot. I'm checking and calling 1 bet, but not overcalling. It's hard to believe that the BB is coldcalling 2 without a flushdraw/Ten/OESD. All of those beat you on the river. If BB was passive then I would check-fold to his bet. If he checks then I'm calling an MP bet.

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this is good..

i'm wondering if we might get UTG to fold a T to a check raise. if he just sat he has no idea MP is a maniac...

Re: Super Thin River Value Bet ?
 

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i'm wondering if we might get UTG to fold a T to a check raise. if he just sat he has no idea MP is a maniac...

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This was one of the reasons I didn't want ot check the river. I thought it would be harder to play if I checked. If I checked and it was checked to MP I would have to consider investing two big bets on the end to get UTG to fold a better hand. I don't really like my chances of this though. UTG will look at the pot, look at his top pair, say "[censored] it" and throw 20 more bucks in.