Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

Only relevant opponent is a pretty tight, solid player. He has around $450 and I have him covered.
2/4 No Limit
Hero is SB w/4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4 limpers, Hero completes, BB checks.
Flop: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks, BB bets $10, 3 folds, Villain raises to 30, Hero raises to 135, BB folds. Villain thinks for a good 20 seconds and calls.
Turn: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I check, he bets $100.
So my thinking is on the flop he either had a set or a flush draw...it seems like a pretty routine fold here...does anybody call here? If so, what do you do on the river depending on if a diamond comes? Also, should I block bet the turn to give him a chance to define his hand?

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

Your still way ahead.

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

Stack sizes?

Chances are there is no way i'm folding this turn but i guess it depends on the player (for whom we have no description). why did you have him on a set or flush draw?

There is no doubt in my mind that block betting is better than check folding

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

I think you should throw out a blocking bet on the turn and if he flat calls and bets a river diamond i would fold. If he raises your turn bet you got a decision to make, but i suspect he has something like A4 or 66, 77, etc.

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

Stack sizes are in the original post-he has 450, I have him covered. I think he has a set or draw because I've never seen him get out of line for a big pot and he took enough time that it seemed like he was facing a genuinely tough decision (obviously making a set more likely than a draw, but it's hard to predict when people overvalue draws so he might have been talking himself into a call with diamonds)

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

a) Why do you think I'm still good here?
b) If so, what's your action on the river if it's a non-diamond or if it's a diamond?

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

Say the pot is at about $300... If you are making a block bet on the turn, what is a good sized bet?

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

Is a middle pocket pair out of the question? I think that is just as likely as a set. When you checked you showed weakness, so he may be trying to steal the pot (or think he is good with a lesser hand than you). I think you made a mistake by giving up control of the hand, I would have bet the turn for around $100, and see what he does. If he pushes you have a tough decision, but I still may call.
What is your table image? Maybe he put you on a draw.
In my opinion he has a range of hands of:
PP 22 through 10/10, excluding 4/4, Flush draw, or A5s.

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

a genuinely tough decision? do you think its a tough decision for him to call on a 2-3-5 flop with a set? would he really be thinking about folding a set here? he has to put you squarely on way too narrow a range of hands.

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

sry, missed the stack size...After the flop, there is 300 in the pot and villian has 300 left. If villian flopped a set, he likely would have reraised the flop for fear of all the draws....Bet 175 on the turn with the intention of getting it all in. I think you are ahead here more often than not. Villian could have: str8 draw, flush draw, overpair, etc. He reall has not done anything to indicate a set.

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

I don't really like the way that you played the hand on any street.

This is a flop that I want to make sure doesn't check around. I have some fear of the flush draw but the real reason I want to lead out is to make sure that we are playing for a big pot. In addition, hands like any pp, flush draw, and a tricky AK might raise you here (in which case I would either 3-bet or open push the turn.) In addition a checkraise shows a ton of stregnth on the flop and could end your action.

The turn card isn't good but getting 2:1 on your hand here I would still want to get all in. I wouldnt want to give a flushdraw a free card so I would probably bet 1/2 pot here and all in on the river

Given the action to you I would go all in and expect to lose 1/3 of the time but I think the passive way that you played the hand is long run -EV.

-Steve

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

It seems to me that you are far ahead in this hand. The hand I would put him on is Ace 5, possible with the draw as well. He figures you for two pair or the straight, so it is a question of whether he wants to try and draw against you. When the 5 comes out and you check, it gives him the green light to bet his top set and try to take the pot.

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

I think I would've led for $100 and folded to a raise. I think if if he flat calls you can feel pretty confident that he has diamonds (or 55).

Either way, I think giving up control of the hand is a big mistake.

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

I think I would have put him on ace, five or no better than a set. When it took him that long to call what could he have? I'd say you have to call so you might as well put him all in

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

Dude, not to be rude, but if you are going to check-fold in that situation, then please join my table, and the same for anyone who block bets the turn (although that's a lot better than a check fold, anyway). Hero has to push in on the turn and pray the other guy puts him on mid-sized diamonds, because the best hand the guy now has is ace-five (maybe with the dry ace of diamonds), and he probably has way less than that (because I don't think ace-five calls that big re-raise on the flop, it just folds and doesn't try to hit a five-outer against a likely mid-sized overpair for a big piece of his stack). Why do you think he doesn't have big diamonds himself? Seems like the most likely holding he would have to me, and in any event, with a made hand against at most a set, I'm going to find out for all the chips...

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, not to be rude, but if you are going to check-fold in that situation, then please join my table,

[/ QUOTE ]

While I agree with you that FF played this hand horribly, I highly doubt you want him at your table. He plays extremely solid and can be quite creative at times. Unless you play super high (above 10-20nl) i would guess that FF is a favorite at any table you would be at.

Anyway, don't be so quick to judge somebody based on one hand.

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

Sometimes I play bigger than that, depends on the table...but you make a good point, I shouldn't assume too much from one hand. On the other hand, it was obviously hyperbole, was making the same point you did (but without saying that he played the hand "horribly", which might actually be ruder...)

If it helps, I was pretty trashed when I posted it [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Results
 

No hard feelings.
So, I folded-he flipped over 22. I was posting this hand to see if anybody would think it's reasonable to check-fold here. I think the big question is-what would somebody call a pretty big check-raise with on this board? A diamond draw seems unlikely because unless he thinks he can stack me when an obvious scare card comes, he's probably incorrect to call this check re-raise. For anybody out there who thinks that a "solid player" would call a check RE-raise with TPTK on a 5-high board, I would honestly question what you think solid poker play is. And for anybody who says I should just push all in, the philosophy of "well, you've charged the draw plenty so when it's possible the guy hits on you you might as well finish the deal" is a good way to lose a lot of money. I think the only pertinent question is, given that this guy was clearly on a draw of some sort, would a diamond draw put in a half-sized, pot-comitting bet with position on the turn? I thought that was unlikely enough that I could fold. Again, if you think a better line is called for, please explain it but I'm skeptical that getting all my chips in is the right answer here.

[ QUOTE ]
Sometimes I play bigger than that, depends on the table...but you make a good point, I shouldn't assume too much from one hand. On the other hand, it was obviously hyperbole, was making the same point you did (but without saying that he played the hand "horribly", which might actually be ruder...)

If it helps, I was pretty trashed when I posted it [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Results
 

Obviously hard to argue the laydown after you say he flipped over 22, but that being said, you also left out that he was tricky enough to think for 20 seconds before calling on the flop. Oh well, nice laydown [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
It seems to me that you are far ahead in this hand. The hand I would put him on is Ace 5, possible with the draw as well. He figures you for two pair or the straight, so it is a question of whether he wants to try and draw against you. When the 5 comes out and you check, it gives him the green light to bet his top set and try to take the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

With $450 and change villain doesn't really have a monster stack relative to the $4 big blind (for example, 100 times the blind is the Party Poker restricted buy in). Because of the small stack sizes, I would expect he would have some gamble even if he is very tight and/or solid. So IMHO villain flopping a set is at most a small favorite.

I'm not sure that A5 is the exact hand but Hero has to realize he is ahead (and can stay ahead) of quite a few hands. Hero just has to estimate how possible and look at the size of the pot. In this case Hero is close to potstuck. There is about $290 already in and villain only has about $300 more. So Hero is at least break even if he wins one time in three. I think he is close to even money so the money should go in.

~ Rick

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
So, I folded-he flipped over 22. I was posting this hand to see if anybody would think it's reasonable to check-fold here. I think the big question is-what would somebody call a pretty big check-raise with on this board?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't villian push all in on the flop with a set? Should he really be that scared of a flopped straight or a bigger set? I can understand fear of monsters if the stacks are a lot deeper, but in Los Angeles even tight players gamble with moderate stack sizes relative to the blinds.

[ QUOTE ]
A diamond draw seems unlikely because unless he thinks he can stack me when an obvious scare card comes, he's probably incorrect to call this check re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

A diamond draw, especially one with a pair should believe it is worth $100 more to call on the flop. He has a clear shot at about $300 strange.

[ QUOTE ]
For anybody out there who thinks that a "solid player" would call a check RE-raise with TPTK on a 5-high board, I would honestly question what you think solid poker play is.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the stacks are huge, and he puts you on a hand, he can't call with less than a set (if he knows you are solid) because he risks a huge loss. But the stacks aren't huge, so you can have weaker hands than a set or straight (e.g, two pair).

[ QUOTE ]
And for anybody who says I should just push all in, the philosophy of "well, you've charged the draw plenty so when it's possible the guy hits on you you might as well finish the deal" is a good way to lose a lot of money. I think the only pertinent question is, given that this guy was clearly on a draw of some sort, would a diamond draw put in a half-sized, pot-comitting bet with position on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't a good draw or a lessor made hand (or combo) often bet the turn after you (a player who obviously is capable of laying down) checked?

[ QUOTE ]
I thought that was unlikely enough that I could fold. Again, if you think a better line is called for, please explain it but I'm skeptical that getting all my chips in is the right answer here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Before the no limit poker explosion, folding is the default play. Post WPT, getting the money in is the default play [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Regards,

Rick

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So, I folded-he flipped over 22. I was posting this hand to see if anybody would think it's reasonable to check-fold here. I think the big question is-what would somebody call a pretty big check-raise with on this board?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't villian push all in on the flop with a set? Should he really be that scared of a flopped straight or a bigger set? I can understand fear of monsters if the stacks are a lot deeper, but in Los Angeles even tight players gamble with moderate stack sizes relative to the blinds.

[ QUOTE ]
A diamond draw seems unlikely because unless he thinks he can stack me when an obvious scare card comes, he's probably incorrect to call this check re-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

A diamond draw, especially one with a pair should believe it is worth $100 more to call on the flop. He has a clear shot at about $300 strange.

[ QUOTE ]
For anybody out there who thinks that a "solid player" would call a check RE-raise with TPTK on a 5-high board, I would honestly question what you think solid poker play is.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the stacks are huge, and he puts you on a hand, he can't call with less than a set (if he knows you are solid) because he risks a huge loss. But the stacks aren't huge, so you can have weaker hands than a set or straight (e.g, two pair).

[ QUOTE ]
And for anybody who says I should just push all in, the philosophy of "well, you've charged the draw plenty so when it's possible the guy hits on you you might as well finish the deal" is a good way to lose a lot of money. I think the only pertinent question is, given that this guy was clearly on a draw of some sort, would a diamond draw put in a half-sized, pot-comitting bet with position on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't a good draw or a lessor made hand (or combo) often bet the turn after you (a player who obviously is capable of laying down) checked?

[ QUOTE ]
I thought that was unlikely enough that I could fold. Again, if you think a better line is called for, please explain it but I'm skeptical that getting all my chips in is the right answer here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Before the no limit poker explosion, folding is the default play. Post WPT, getting the money in is the default play [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Regards,

Rick

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the posts. I agree with a lot of what you said actually, and I admit the reason I posted this is because despite what he had that hand I have my doubts if I took a proper line. With that said, don't you think you're overestimating the "only 100xbigblind=gamboool!" factor? Do you think that holding 22 on that board with that action it's an auto-push? Maybe the move isn't terrible but you seem to be saying I can rule out a set as opposed to a flush draw because it would be so odd for somebody to play a set so conservatively. At this point, it just becomes player-dependent (both whether he really respects my checkraises and whether I think he's afraid to push with a set on that flop). Your first post seems to ring true more than this one. Do you think that 100x the big blind is really a small enough stack that people are in auto-push mode anytime they get alot of action and a good piece of the flop?

Re: Results
 

Icky icky icky. You should have bet and you know it.

Re: Flopped nut straight, then saw a scary turn
 

[ QUOTE ]
There is about $290 already in and villain only has about $300 more. So Hero is at least break even if he wins one time in three. I think he is close to even money so the money should go in.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yea...this is probably the most key point in the entire thread....It's why i don't like FF getting away from this hand.

Re: Results
 

Yeah, I felt like I backed my way into the right play, but I still don't know how much I should have bet. Pete, you think I just push the turn and commit myself to losing my stack if he has a set here?

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Pete, you think I just push the turn and commit myself to losing my stack if he has a set here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like a stack commiting bet like $150 better....If he has a mid pocket pair you don't want to run him off his hand. And even with implied odds, it would be incorrect for villian to call with a flush draw....If he pushes all in, at this point, you have to call...

Re: Results
 

Yeah, this is probably the right call. Even though he had 22 I was uncomfortable with my line and this seems like a better way to go.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I felt like I backed my way into the right play, but I still don't know how much I should have bet. Pete, you think I just push the turn and commit myself to losing my stack if he has a set here?

[/ QUOTE ]

So there's around $290 in the pot and you have about $310 left? is that right? If you had $1000 behind, I'd say bet the pot (maybe a bit less) and then fold to a raise, so how can a pot-sized bet all-in be so bad? This is a frequently-made logical error - when one would be (rightfully) willing to lose a pot sized bet, but not willing to "lose my whole stack" - even though it is only pot sized.*

If you're pretty sure the person has a set, maybe you can finesse the pot by betting $100 and folding to a raise or something silly like that.

* Note: I understand that the analogy here isn't perfect. There are definitely situations where I would be willing to bet a fraction of a big stack where I wouldn't be willing to bet an equal sized all-in (e.g. if I'm bluffing and want to leverage the threat).

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
With that said, don't you think you're overestimating the "only 100xbigblind=gamboool!" factor?

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps a bit. In a restricted buy game (where the max buy is usually about 33 to 60 times the big blind here in LA) you get a lot more gamble when people are able to reload back or close to their original stack (often you can reload to 1.5 times the original buy-in). In an unrestricted buy-in game, having a stack of only 100 times the big blind is a little on the small side. If the player is on short money, he may be conservative, otherwise he may tend to go with a decent hand here.

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think that holding 22 on that board with that action it's an auto-push? Maybe the move isn't terrible but you seem to be saying I can rule out a set as opposed to a flush draw because it would be so odd for somebody to play a set so conservatively. At this point, it just becomes player-dependent (both whether he really respects my checkraises and whether I think he's afraid to push with a set on that flop). Your first post seems to ring true more than this one. Do you think that 100x the big blind is really a small enough stack that people are in auto-push mode anytime they get alot of action and a good piece of the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, not an auto-push, put pushing is a possibility. Try to get into his head. With a set he believes is good, pushing is probably his play if he thinks he is up against a draw or pair/draw combo.

But what he did is call another $105. He could do this as a slowplay if he believes you are weaker. If he thinks you have the straight he can call with a set and get away from an all in bet on the turn (if the board doesn't pair). But he can't be so sure you flopped a straight - there are enough other possibilities. So his call could mean draw or set or weak draw/pair combo (example is the aforementioned A5). Also note that these days some calls can be very scary - he might believe a lot of turn cards will slow you down. In this case it did, giving let's say a flush draw two chances to hit.

He only folds on the flop if he believes he is behind a bigger set and IMO most opponents won't and shouldn't play that scared with this stack size.

In any event, because of stack sizes with any sort of made hand he really is deciding if he is committing all his chips on the flop. That doesn't mean he puts them all in on the flop though.

Regards,

Rick