Re: I get fancy...
 

In my opinion this debate over the turn check is heavily predicated on button not checking behind you. If there is much chance at all of him checking behind you (and without a read I would say there is), then checking looks like a mistake to me. Not only do you miss value from hands that would have called, but you miss the chance at a bunch of value from hands that would have raised. The additional value you gain when they bluff with hands that wouldn't have called is not enough additional reward to compensate for the risk of the turn checking through. Of course and as always I may be dead wrong.

Cartman

Re: I get fancy...
 

You probably should have bet the turn, but since you didn't, the coldcall is the only play. A 3-bet is just too obvious, they can't possibly call you down. I'd donk the river for sure though, expecting to get at least one and maybe two confusion calls.

-Eric

Re: I get fancy...
 

Oh man. When your opponents are this bad, does it even matter? :P

Re: I get fancy...
 

You don't get raised very often when you hold the nut flush on a 4-flush board, so this argument doesn't hold much water with me (even after seeing this hand). On the other hand, with the doofus calling station MP in there, missing out on his potential calls is a crime. I bet the turn as well.

good luck.
eric

Re: I get fancy...
 

its a very bad play not to bet this turn!

Re: I get fancy...
 

I love it, often a turn check here is a green light for button to steal and by doing this you totally change things up.

Re: I get fancy...
 

[ QUOTE ]
You probably should have bet the turn, but since you didn't, the coldcall is the only play. A 3-bet is just too obvious, they can't possibly call you down. I'd donk the river for sure though, expecting to get at least one and maybe two confusion calls.

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the response Eric.

I'd like to analyse this in more detail. First off my read on Button (extrapolated from stats) is that he is a little laggy. Postflop agression isn't abnormally high. Just a little loose and a little agressive preflop. I expect this player type to bet a ton of hands when I check to him.

First off he called the flop on a monotone flop. That means he either has a piece or a draw. When the 4th flush card hits, he will either fold his crappy made hands or call when I bet with his weaker flushes. If I check though, he will bet JQK flushes. I think if I bet he is even calling with the king high flush since I was a preflop 3-bettor and am a favorite to have an ace.

Now I admit, all this analysis doesn't include MP. And I agree that there are some hands he'll have that he'll call with if I bet (especially if I lose Button). So I do lose some value from him. But I'd like to argue not a ton.

If the turn checks around, that opens up Villians estimation of my range. They might call the river with hands what would have folded the turn. They might value bet or bluff-stab at the pot with nothing. And if a 5th spade comes they might call to split. These are secondary points though. The primary reason I think a check is good is because Button will bet lots of hands he wouldn't raise with.

Krishan

Re: I get fancy...
 

Hi Krishan,

I don't remember all these reads about the button in the OP. If it was there, ok, I read it at like 2am. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I play very aggressively but if I was the button, I wouldn't bet any of the hands you mentioned, all the way up to the k-high flush (this is straight out of HPFAP if you want my logic).

If you know the button well and think he might take a final stab with a made hand that doesn't contain a flush etc then I like the check. I certainly like your thought process as it's solid and has you thinking about what they have and what they think you have etc etc... whatever you decide this hand is almost irrelevent, the important thing is your logic is great.

Having seen the results and what MP is willing to do with garbage (he did show one pair no spade, right?) missing a bet against this guy is a bigger mistake then normal, since he'll raise light and payoff with hands that can't possibly be good...

-Eric