BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

Okay, so I usually rely heavily on Sagarin predictor to evaluate college football lines. Predictor is great. Usually the line is right around what predictor says it should be, and when it's not, there's some good reason like an injury.

However, for three of the four major bowls, the Pinnacle lines are NOWHERE NEAR what predictor says. Any explanation for these?

USC-Texas
Pinnacle: USC -6.5
Sagarin: PK 0
Hypothesis: Sagarin breaks down somewhat with incredibly dominant teams? Home-field edge to USC? Public loves USC?

Penn State-Florida State
Pinnacle: PSU -7.5
Sagarin: PSU -13
Guess: No idea. PSU is so much better.

West Virginia-georgia
Pinnacle: uga -8.5
Sagarin: WVU -1.5
Guess: What the hell? There is no way uga is that overrated and WVU that underrated by the public, is there?

Notre Dame-Ohio State
Pinnacle: OSU -4.5
Sagarin: OSU -5
Guess: Finally, one makes sense. This opened at 5.5, I think.

I am so confused.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, so I usually rely heavily on Sagarin predictor to evaluate college football lines. Predictor is great. Usually the line is right around what predictor says it should be, and when it's not, there's some good reason like an injury.

However, for three of the four major bowls, the Pinnacle lines are NOWHERE NEAR what predictor says. Any explanation for these?

USC-Texas
Pinnacle: USC -6.5
Sagarin: PK 0
Hypothesis: Sagarin breaks down somewhat with incredibly dominant teams? Home-field edge to USC? Public loves USC?

Penn State-Florida State
Pinnacle: PSU -7.5
Sagarin: PSU -13
Guess: No idea. PSU is so much better.

West Virginia-georgia
Pinnacle: uga -8.5
Sagarin: WVU -1.5
Guess: What the hell? There is no way uga is that overrated and WVU that underrated by the public, is there?

Notre Dame-Ohio State
Pinnacle: OSU -4.5
Sagarin: OSU -5
Guess: Finally, one makes sense. This opened at 5.5, I think.

I am so confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sagarin doesn't account for Shockley being injured.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, so I usually rely heavily on Sagarin predictor to evaluate college football lines. Predictor is great. Usually the line is right around what predictor says it should be, and when it's not, there's some good reason like an injury.

However, for three of the four major bowls, the Pinnacle lines are NOWHERE NEAR what predictor says. Any explanation for these?

USC-Texas
Pinnacle: USC -6.5
Sagarin: PK 0
Hypothesis: Sagarin breaks down somewhat with incredibly dominant teams? Home-field edge to USC? Public loves USC?

Penn State-Florida State
Pinnacle: PSU -7.5
Sagarin: PSU -13
Guess: No idea. PSU is so much better.

West Virginia-georgia
Pinnacle: uga -8.5
Sagarin: WVU -1.5
Guess: What the hell? There is no way uga is that overrated and WVU that underrated by the public, is there?

Notre Dame-Ohio State
Pinnacle: OSU -4.5
Sagarin: OSU -5
Guess: Finally, one makes sense. This opened at 5.5, I think.

I am so confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sagarin doesn't account for Shockley being injured.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you think one player is worth 10 points?

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, so I usually rely heavily on Sagarin predictor to evaluate college football lines. Predictor is great. Usually the line is right around what predictor says it should be, and when it's not, there's some good reason like an injury.

However, for three of the four major bowls, the Pinnacle lines are NOWHERE NEAR what predictor says. Any explanation for these?

USC-Texas
Pinnacle: USC -6.5
Sagarin: PK 0
Hypothesis: Sagarin breaks down somewhat with incredibly dominant teams? Home-field edge to USC? Public loves USC?

Penn State-Florida State
Pinnacle: PSU -7.5
Sagarin: PSU -13
Guess: No idea. PSU is so much better.

West Virginia-georgia
Pinnacle: uga -8.5
Sagarin: WVU -1.5
Guess: What the hell? There is no way uga is that overrated and WVU that underrated by the public, is there?

Notre Dame-Ohio State
Pinnacle: OSU -4.5
Sagarin: OSU -5
Guess: Finally, one makes sense. This opened at 5.5, I think.

I am so confused.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the USC line is largely driven by the public, not to mention no one really knows what'll happen with their defense.

The PSU line I think is low, but I'm biased and staying out of this one.

The UGA/WVU line: I haven't watched WVU enough to comment.

ND/OSU: It did open at -5.5. I'm hoping public $ brings it down further so I can grab OSU.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sagarin doesn't account for Shockley being injured.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought about that, but he only missed one game, right? Even if he's worth 21 points by himself, that still would be only 21 points in one game, which I doubt would have a 10-point impact in the end.

How much did his injury affect him in the other games?

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

right now I'm on Texas, FSU, Georgia, and Ohio State...guess I don't believe in sagarin

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
right now I'm on Texas, FSU, Georgia, and Ohio State...guess I don't believe in sagarin

[/ QUOTE ]

Can I ask why you're on FSU? I'm trying to get an unbiased opinion here. What do you think would be an appropriate spread for you to consider taking PSU?

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

Have you had much success betting on lines that are far off from the predictor?

Just curious.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

Well...I've been fading PSU all year and it's bit me hard

FSU defense is monstrous. Michael Robinson will not have time to throw and be back to his turnover prone ways. I liken the PSU offense to a slightly worse version of Virginia Tech. Sure, PSU will stop FSU, but everyone does. I see a 16-12 type game.

The match-ups favor FSU. While PSU's florida recruits were quicker than nearly all big10 recruits, these were the guys passed over by FSU, Florida, and the U. With the speed edge gone from the Nittany Lion offense, I'm skeptical they will adjust well. Of course, I do like Galen Hall and he might be able to pull some good stuff with a month of preparation.

I also think the Big10 is seriously overrated. I think tOSU is awesome, but highly question the rest of the league. IMO, FSU played a much more difficult schedule.

Also, it's a long ways to the bowl season. Often, it appears as though a different team takes the field. FSU does have national champ calibur talent. Perhaps, they'll find it with an additional amount of practice.

Of course, I've been underestimating the Nittany Lions all year. I've had trouble forgetting the past 5 seasons. I could very well be wrong.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well...I've been fading PSU all year and it's bit me hard

FSU defense is monstrous. Michael Robinson will not have time to throw and be back to his turnover prone ways. I liken the PSU offense to a slightly worse version of Virginia Tech. Sure, PSU will stop FSU, but everyone does. I see a 16-12 type game.

The match-ups favor FSU. While PSU's florida recruits were quicker than nearly all big10 recruits, these were the guys passed over by FSU, Florida, and the U. With the speed edge gone from the Nittany Lion offense, I'm skeptical they will adjust well. Of course, I do like Galen Hall and he might be able to pull some good stuff with a month of preparation.

I also think the Big10 is seriously overrated. I think tOSU is awesome, but highly question the rest of the league. IMO, FSU played a much more difficult schedule.

Also, it's a long ways to the bowl season. Often, it appears as though a different team takes the field. FSU does have national champ calibur talent. Perhaps, they'll find it with an additional amount of practice.

Of course, I've been underestimating the Nittany Lions all year. I've had trouble forgetting the past 5 seasons. I could very well be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your reply. I also worry about the long layoff. One thing I've been hearing that's good for PSU is about how weak the FSU O-line is. This should really help Tamba Hali and the front 4 provide good pressure.

Hopefully I can make it down there.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

Yep...the Penn St D will look great as usual

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
Have you had much success betting on lines that are far off from the predictor?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I haven't even been studying sports betting for more than a year or so. But I have been watching predictor for a while, especially in college basketball, where I use it for NCAA pools and contests and such.

I also used it to predict football games for contests, and impress my friends when I picked an "upset" that really wasn't an upset at all according to Sagarin.

Then when I actually discovered betting lines, I was shocked at how well they generally matched up. Three of these games are off by 5.5 or more, and that's extremely unusual.

In fact, I don't remember ever seeing ANY lines as far off as 6.5, except for in cases where injuries were obviously a major factor. That's what freaks me out so much here.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

The Predictor can't be a TD off, right? Some of those lines look really, really good.

Even if Georgia is at LSU's level, it's still -1.5 in favor of WVU.

I think WVU is incredibly underrated, and I'd bet them very, very hard.

Same with Texas. And I believe FSU is overrated, because of how they dominated Va Tech.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]

In fact, I don't remember ever seeing ANY lines as far off as 6.5, except for in cases where injuries were obviously a major factor. That's what freaks me out so much here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I went through a stretch where I compared all lines to the predictor, and it was not uncommon on a weekend with a full slate of games for 5 or more games to be 10+ points off the predictor line. Some of these skews are injury-related as you said. Most others occur with big numbers, where it is unclear to me how well predictor accounts for the marginal decrease in the value of points as a line increases. But, that having been said, there are generally a couple games a week where, for example, predictor says Team A -1 and the line is Team A +10.5.

At a quick glance, here's one of that nature from bowl season:

NC State vs. S. Florida

Predictor: S. Fla -3
Line: NCSU -6.5

Some of that difference is probably "home field" for NCSU since the game is in Charlotte. But, it is still around a TD off...

Also, for whatever it's worth, from my informal research, it didn't appear that blindly playing picks that had value according to predictor was a solid strategy. Didn't really look at it in-depth or have a good sample size, however...

Just food for thought...

ML4L

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

Hmmm. Interesting. I don't have a big enough sample size either. I used it largely for ESPN.com games where you have to pick winners and assign confidence levels, and it did very well there. However, I suppose it's possible that it was off on like one game a week, but that I would never have known because that's just not a lot of data.

I always paid more attention to college basketball than college football. I suspect there is less variance in basketball scores; it's a lot more common to have misleading score margins in football. Also, there may be more data in basketball or the teams may be more connected.

It's interesting that you found so many games that were off. I'll have to start looking at more games. Because I really haven't seen what you have, but I assume that you looked at many more.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

W Virginia this year

Sun, Sep 4 at Syracuse W 15-7 --
Sat, Sep 10 Wofford W 35-7 --
Sat, Sep 17 at Maryland W 31-19 --
Sat, Sep 24 East Carolina W 20-15 --
Sat, Oct 1 (12) Virginia Tech L 17-34 --
Sat, Oct 8 at Rutgers W 27-14 --
Sat, Oct 15 (15) Louisville W 46-44 --
Sat, Oct 22 at South Florida Ppd. --
Wed, Nov 2 Connecticut W 45-13 --
Wed, Nov 9 at Cincinnati W 38-0 --
Thu, Nov 24 Pittsburgh W 45-13 --
Sat, Dec 3 at South Florida W 28-13 --


I still have absolutely no clue as to how they stack up against the top 15 in the land, but my guess is not good.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
With the speed edge gone from the Nittany Lion offense, I'm skeptical they will adjust well.[ QUOTE ]


What do you mean? Have you seen how fast the "other" receivers are? And the "speed edge" (if you mean Williams) has been gone since the Michigan game, didn't seem to hurt them in the games that followed.

[ QUOTE ]
I think tOSU is awesome, but highly question the rest of the league.[ QUOTE ]


Did you see the PSU tOSU game?

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, FSU played a much more difficult schedule.[ QUOTE ]


Maybe close, but certainly not "much more" difficult. And come on, they lost FOUR of those games.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

My point is that Penn St only faced two decent defenses all year--scored 17 against Ohio St and 25 against Michigan. PSU had 78 yards passing and 126 rushing against tOSU. PSU had 239 yard passing and 184 rushing verse Michigan. Only 1 turnover in those two games combined by the Nittany Lions.

Since the Michigan game, the Nittany Lions played Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan State who are not exactly the fearsome foursome, especially on defense. PSU had a decided speed edge across all positions in the big10 for every game but the two mentioned above. That will disappear against the Noles. Will PSU adjust?

While tOSU defense is better than FSU IMO, they are not as fast nor as capable of making good teams turn the ball over. If PSU holds their turnovers down, they'll win. 2 or more turnovers and I see big problems covering.

The Big10 is very, very overrated. Look at the non-conference games played by each team. There is only one impressive win; Michigan State at Notre Dame. No other team had an impressive non-conference performance (unless you count Wisky @ North Carolina and Illinois v Rutgers) and some were downright unimpressive.

The fallacy is that when tOSU and Michigan are near the top of the conference, it's considered good. IMO, the big ten is the 4th best major conference this year. I came into the year with high hopes for the conference, but they just didn't materialize. The SEC, ACC, and Pac-10 were better, some by a wide margin.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

So how did Sagarin predict the USC/Oklahoma game from last year?

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

Turn I think your reading waaaaaaaaaaay too much into that Virginia Tech game. You watched the Clemson and Forida games right?

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

yep...and I bet against FSU in both those games due to the injuries to their defensive ends and pathetic offense. IIRC, Florida -4 verse FSU was a pick of the week by me.

FSU will have their defense back in full shape for this one and I really do think that little of every team in the Big10 except tOSU.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

What I am often guilty of, and others may have noticed this, is a confirmation bias. If I come into a game with ideas, I'll weight the evidence that supports my theory more than those that disconfirm it.

For example, last week I did not weigh in the fact that UGA pummeled LSU last year and that the two teams had not changed much with this years rosters and playing styles. I saw it in researching the game, but pushed this information aside while blowing 300 on LSU. oh well....no one is perfect.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
So how did Sagarin predict the USC/Oklahoma game from last year?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't remember. I think it favored USC by like 1. Why?

Surely you are not planning to argue against Sagarin by pointing out a game where Sagarin's prediction and the actual final margin were a lot different.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who won that Miami - FSU game?

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who won that Miami - FSU game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. 10-7. Tom I promise I wasn't downing tOSU by comparison. They are a hell of a team and I look forward to them pounding ND in the Fiesta.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

[/ QUOTE ]

I watched the game. IMO, The better team lost. It happens, especially on the road. The turnover edge played huge. I still think tOSU is better.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you think tOSU is "awesome" and PSU handled them mid season, has a better record and better ranking, how does PSU not measure up? How can you think so highly of tOSU and not PSU, I'm guessing you didn't see that game and don't want to compare their seasons. I think you are discounting what PSU has done defensively as well. FSU has not faced a better defense with the possible exception of Miami. You make some valid points but are ignoring way too many others.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who won that Miami - FSU game?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup. 10-7. Tom I promise I wasn't downing tOSU by comparison. They are a hell of a team and I look forward to them pounding ND in the Fiesta.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am a little nervous about the PSU game. Just because FSU is such an enigma. They get pumped up for good games and play reasonably well. Then other games, they just plain suck. PSU and OSU aren't significantly different in terms of talent IMHO, but something about FSU makes it so I wouldn't be surprised if they came out and played a great game.

As for Notre Dame, I don't expect a blowout, but I wouldn't mind being surprised. I think a lot of that game comes down to how well Troy Smith plays. Notre Dame's defense is a bit suspect, but not awful by any means.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]


I watched the game. IMO, The better team lost. It happens, especially on the road. The turnover edge played huge. I still think tOSU is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Geez man you are pretty set on this, I'm having trouble understanding some of your points. Please don't get me wrong tOSU is an damn good team easily one of the best in the country. But PSU was very dominant defensively in that game with the exception of one drive. Of course turnovers played a role, they normally do. They are a big part of the game. Winning teams typically turn the ball over less. I don't understand how that makes PSU a lesser team because they won when they got more turnovers. Penn State was favored, they won, and they are really about one illegit second away from being undefeated. Clear your head man, I think you are remembering the last few years for PSU. Different season. Big turnaround.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

oh yeah...I've been underestimating Penn St and fading them all year. This is nothing new. The team has made me eat crow a few times this year, the most memorable was before tOSU game where I said something like "Penn St is just like Ohio State. Their systems, schemes, and personnel are mirror images, except that Penn St is the JV version."

OK so I was very wrong. Stands to reason that I might be wrong again. I just am convinced that Penn St, and the great majority of Big10 teams, are no good this year. The one exception is tOSU, whose defense I absolutely love. If the coaches had discovered the Pittman running attack earlier and did some better play calling with Troy Smith, well...who knows?

I've said earlier, while I love the PSU D, I just cannot erase the last 5 years of PSU offense out of my brain. I just don't see national title type offense. I'm exhibiting an anchoring and adjustment error in my judgment and decision making. I know this, yet stand firmly behind it.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
oh yeah...I've been underestimating Penn St and fading them all year. This is nothing new. The team has made me eat crow a few times this year, the most memorable was before tOSU game where I said something like "Penn St is just like Ohio State. Their systems, schemes, and personnel are mirror images, except that Penn St is the JV version."

OK so I was very wrong. Stands to reason that I might be wrong again. I just am convinced that Penn St, and the great majority of Big10 teams, are no good this year. The one exception is tOSU, whose defense I absolutely love. If the coaches had discovered the Pittman running attack earlier and did some better play calling with Troy Smith, well...who knows?

I've said earlier, while I love the PSU D, I just cannot erase the last 5 years of PSU offense out of my brain. I just don't see national title type offense. I'm exhibiting an anchoring and adjustment error in my judgment and decision making. I know this, yet stand firmly behind it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Eh, fair enough....you're admitting your judgment is off and you're sticking with it, not really anywhere to go from there. Keep fading them.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I watched the game. IMO, The better team lost. It happens, especially on the road. The turnover edge played huge. I still think tOSU is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Geez man you are pretty set on this, I'm having trouble understanding some of your points. Please don't get me wrong tOSU is an damn good team easily one of the best in the country. But PSU was very dominant defensively in that game with the exception of one drive. Of course turnovers played a role, they normally do. They are a big part of the game. Winning teams typically turn the ball over less. I don't understand how that makes PSU a lesser team because they won when they got more turnovers. Penn State was favored, they won, and they are really about one illegit second away from being undefeated. Clear your head man, I think you are remembering the last few years for PSU. Different season. Big turnaround.

[/ QUOTE ]

For what its worth, Penn State was definitely not favored (+3), and likely would not be favored on a neutral field even if there is a rematch.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I watched the game. IMO, The better team lost. It happens, especially on the road. The turnover edge played huge. I still think tOSU is better.

[/ QUOTE ]

Geez man you are pretty set on this, I'm having trouble understanding some of your points. Please don't get me wrong tOSU is an damn good team easily one of the best in the country. But PSU was very dominant defensively in that game with the exception of one drive. Of course turnovers played a role, they normally do. They are a big part of the game. Winning teams typically turn the ball over less. I don't understand how that makes PSU a lesser team because they won when they got more turnovers. Penn State was favored, they won, and they are really about one illegit second away from being undefeated. Clear your head man, I think you are remembering the last few years for PSU. Different season. Big turnaround.

[/ QUOTE ]

For what its worth, Penn State was definitely not favored (+3), and likely would not be favored on a neutral field even if there is a rematch.

[/ QUOTE ]

Close to being a nit but my bad about them being favored. You're right. It all speculation but I don't see why tOSU would be favored at a neutral site. Pick em at best I'd say. This is somewhat pointless, it was settled on the field. Remember when Tamba Hali crushed Smith and made him fumble squelching that last futile effort? [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] I do.

Re: BCS bowl lines are crazy
 

I like ND + 4.5...going to play this game on the moneyline.
Georgia bulldogs -8.5
Penn State..JOE PA in bowl games? EASY MONEY!
PSU...florida state hasnt been the same ever since they lost Mark Richt to georgia...