JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

Hello All,

Super Tuesday, ~130 left, 140 get paid.

BB= 500

UTG (4800) open limps

UTG+1 (12000) rasies to 2000

Folded to me in LP w/ 7500 and JJ.

Got moved to this table just as it went hand for hand.

UTG hasn't played a hand since I sat down.

UTG+1 open raised 3xBB then stacked a guys in LP who pushed JJ, UTG+1 called with KK, that's the only hand I've seen him play in about 3 orbits.

I have stolen 3 times since I sat down, that is all.

What is your move here?

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

Wood, I fold this. You have a very good hand and position. If UTG didn't limp, this would be an easy call or push IMO; however, UTG will be acting behind you and given his stack, has a high probablily to shove it in. UTG+1 is not going away. While you may have the best hand now (perhaps), I think seeing 5 cards is something you don't want to do. I find a better spot, and move on. Curious to hear what others think.

J

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

I'd push in this spot. You're already in the money, but the real money is in the final spots. You need to accumulate chips, and there's enough chips out there for you to attempt a "steal".

If you get called, you're likely coin-flipping.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

EDIT: I totally misread the post.

You can probably wait for a better spot. I hate folding JJ, but you are probably 90% of the time dominated here, if not more. You have 13 bb's. Wait it out.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

nothing like getting it in on a 3-way coin flip.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

I think I push. I put UTG on 99/TT and UTG+1 could easily be on a steal but I'd expect more of an AQs/AK type hand here from UTG+1. Given the potodds, its tough for him not to call, but its also tough for him to think he's not dominated.

Tough spot, but I like the push and look to accumulate.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

I think you are winning at this point in the hand, and would cold call. You should take advantage of your position and decide what to do after the flop. I like calling.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

i think calling is the worst decision. what hands limp utg when blinds are where they are and roughly $4k left? UTG is getting his money in regardless. why is UTG+1 stealing? not exactly in good position to do so...

i am folding here, and it's not even close.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

Does anyone else not think UTG has at least JJ? UTG limp this late in the tournament, it would really surprise me if he didn't have some sort of monster. Combined with an early raiser with it, OP would probably need to make his set to stand a chance, and if UTG does have a hand he's probably pushing back at that raise.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think I push. I put UTG on 99/TT and UTG+1 could easily be on a steal but I'd expect more of an AQs/AK type hand here from UTG+1. Given the potodds, its tough for him not to call, but its also tough for him to think he's not dominated.

Tough spot, but I like the push and look to accumulate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Decided to come back to this post. I think pushing is gonna get you busted way too often. Easy fold, you're fine sticking around and looking to pickoff the blinds to build up. You aren't even invested in the hand and my initial analysis may have been correct as far as reads go, but this is an easy fold.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

So you'll lose to the limper and double up in the side pot against the raiser, sounds like a win-win situation to me? w00t! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Just because the UTG player has made the money, does not mean this player is skilled and playing optimally. He probably hasn't played a hand because he's been trying to make the money.

He could be limping with a monster, or he could be limping with a speculative hand (high suited connectors, small pocket pair, etc)

Regardless, I still like a push here, it gives you more opportunities to win the pot (by your opponents folding or by your hand holding up in a showdown)

Calling is the worst option, and I can understand why some might be scared of the early action and fold, fearing that they are AT BEST coin-flipping in this situation. Without further information on the limper, it's tough to say. I put the raiser on A/K or A/Q or maybe even A/J suited. But without more info on these two players, the other stacks at the table, etc. it's hard to say.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

I push, but im not thrilled about it.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

Is this a good place for a squeeze play Harington talked about? After UTG limps, UTG+1 makes it 2000 togo and you make it 3500, UTG is going away unless he is slowplaying AA or KK, With his odds and at least a very good hand UTG+1 is at least calling and maybe pushing. If you push, UTG is still going away without AA or KK(wouldn't think he's limping with QQ or AK-AQ), if he feels like coming in with anything less let him come. UTG+1 raises 4x BB here with his big stack of chips, does not want anybody in this hand but you pushed anyways. He calls you with AA-QQ and AK prob AQ. His raise could be isolation on the limper who he may know better than you. At this point I'm pushing or folding, I lean toward's pushing.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is this a good place for a squeeze play Harington talked about? After UTG limps, UTG+1 makes it 2000 togo and you make it 3500, UTG is going away unless he is slowplaying AA or KK, With his odds and at least a very good hand UTG+1 is at least calling and maybe pushing. If you push, UTG is still going away without AA or KK(wouldn't think he's limping with QQ or AK-AQ), if he feels like coming in with anything less let him come. UTG+1 raises 4x BB here with his big stack of chips, does not want anybody in this hand but you pushed anyways. He calls you with AA-QQ and AK prob AQ. His raise could be isolation on the limper who he may know better than you. At this point I'm pushing or folding, I lean toward's pushing.

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Re-raising like that commits half of your remaining chips into the pot, making it extremely difficult for you to fold if you're played back at. I'd rather push and give myself the best chance to push out an A/Q or lower, and possibly an A/K might fold if he feels that he's at best coin-flipping and possibly dominated.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is this a good place for a squeeze play Harington talked about? After UTG limps, UTG+1 makes it 2000 togo and you make it 3500, UTG is going away unless he is slowplaying AA or KK, With his odds and at least a very good hand UTG+1 is at least calling and maybe pushing. If you push, UTG is still going away without AA or KK(wouldn't think he's limping with QQ or AK-AQ), if he feels like coming in with anything less let him come. UTG+1 raises 4x BB here with his big stack of chips, does not want anybody in this hand but you pushed anyways. He calls you with AA-QQ and AK prob AQ. His raise could be isolation on the limper who he may know better than you. At this point I'm pushing or folding, I lean toward's pushing.

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Re-raising like that commits half of your remaining chips into the pot, making it extremely difficult for you to fold if you're played back at. I'd rather push and give myself the best chance to push out an A/Q or lower, and possibly an A/K might fold if he feels that he's at best coin-flipping and possibly dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]

The short story out of my rambling was to push or fold, I like push. Ya I would not reraise to 3500.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

I have to push at this point, and yea, I'm not too thrilled about it either, however I can't pass up on this spot to double/triple up with what is very likely to be the best hand.

Results/Thoughts
 

I burned almost my entire time bank and folded.

UTG folded and UTG+1 won uncontested.

I'm not a big fan of folding thin edges in order to find the mythical "better spot", but I really didn't think I had an edge here.

UTG's open limp was disconcerting, being so short and limping UTG, but my bigger concern was UTG+1.

He had only played one hand since I sat down, and it was KK on the bubble. He had a few opportunitites to steal and didn't take them.

Now he's raising in EP over a suspcious limp.

At best (best for me that is) I put him on AA-TT, AK,AQ, and I'm a slight dog to that range with only 500 overlay in the pot, which might not be an overlay. I think given his tightness that range is fairly broad. You could put in 99, but I think adding AQ evens it out some.

Add to him the UTG limp and I didn't figure to be in great shape, so seeing no edge I folded.

I have no problem with those who say push, and I push this over someone I have seen splash around even once in a heartbeat, UTG be dammed.

I had a very good August, and I attribute some of that to have some patience and not putting my $$$ in a bad spot due to stack size pressure (i.e. calling)

I have started September poorly, bubbling and going out a few time by calling in spots where I really didn't have to, and want to reverse that trend.

Is this one of those places I should take the slight worst of it?

FWIW I lost 1/3 of my stack a few hands later coming over top of a shorty all in with AQ, he had 77 and hit a set.

I lost the rest with TT after hitting a set on the flop, only to lose to KK, who hit his set on the turn.

After the tourney I was thinking about my hands, and if I win the JJ hand, I can withstand the TT v. KK beat....hmmmmm

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

I agree with your fold for pretty much the exact reasons you outlined. If UTG+1 really hadn't used all of those chips to steal or limp or anything in all the 30 hands you've seen, he's way too tight for me to love this spot. If he at least made a few position raises or called a raise now and then, I shove my chips in here with only a slight twitch. But here I just want to throw up when I shove into two people who could easily have the exact hands I'm fearing. Blech.

On a side note, does the bubble situation make you more or less inclined to mess with close spots here? If you doubled up or won this pot you'd have over 10k and could steal a lot of important blinds. But then again you can steal decently with your current stack and don't have to risk going home empty. Hmm

Everett

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]

On a side note, does the bubble situation make you more or less inclined to mess with close spots here? If you doubled up or won this pot you'd have over 10k and could steal a lot of important blinds. But then again you can steal decently with your current stack and don't have to risk going home empty. Hmm



[/ QUOTE ]

The bubble had burst.

130ish left, 140 pay.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with your fold for pretty much the exact reasons you outlined. If UTG+1 really hadn't used all of those chips to steal or limp or anything in all the 30 hands you've seen, he's way too tight for me to love this spot. If he at least made a few position raises or called a raise now and then, I shove my chips in here with only a slight twitch. But here I just want to throw up when I shove into two people who could easily have the exact hands I'm fearing. Blech.

On a side note, does the bubble situation make you more or less inclined to mess with close spots here? If you doubled up or won this pot you'd have over 10k and could steal a lot of important blinds. But then again you can steal decently with your current stack and don't have to risk going home empty. Hmm

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]

He's no longer on the bubble, the bubble burst at 140 and they're down to 130. Payouts at this stage are usually mediocre and you need to really hit the final table to see worthwhile payouts.

As such, you should be playing to accumulate chips, not allow yourself to be whittled away to the point where you can't push people out of a pot.

I don't fault folding here maybe 20-25% of the time, but I think it's a push the other 75-80%.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

Yuck. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. Gotta fold here. You're dealing with an UTG limp and UTG+1; best case says UTG is a donk limping w/a middle pair, and UTG+1 is isolating w/AK/AQ. That's your rosiest picture, there's plenty worse. Get out.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

Alright apparantly I can't read. So let's just play pretend and say there were something like 140 or 150 left and 130 pay.

Everett

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't fault folding here maybe 20-25% of the time, but I think it's a push the other 75-80%.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying act randomly, where 1/4 times you fold and 3/4 you call? That seems silly since you're not worried about disguising your play.

I agree that most of the times you see this action you need to push (though it's somewhat marginal). However given this specific situation, I think a push not right.

Is there any merit in calling?

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

Well in any setting where you respect your players I really do think you can justify a fold here. I mean if MLG limps under the gun here and then TJ Cloutier makes that 4xbb raise I can lay it down.

But on the other hand this is PP and you have JJ and 15bb where all the money is top heavy and a coinflip with overlay is not at all something to be fearful of.

-Jason

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

I shove and I hate it. If you had better reads, I could see folding here though.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't fault folding here maybe 20-25% of the time, but I think it's a push the other 75-80%.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying act randomly, where 1/4 times you fold and 3/4 you call? That seems silly since you're not worried about disguising your play.

I agree that most of the times you see this action you need to push (though it's somewhat marginal). However given this specific situation, I think a push not right.

Is there any merit in calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm saying that it will depend on your read of the other players, your particular play-style, etc. There are a number of factors that must be taken into consideration in these spots.

The UTG limper doesn't have to have a monster (as we saw in this case, he folded). He's short-stacked relative to the blinds and he's limping UTG. That, to me, usually indicates a donk who's squeeked into the money.

The raise from the larger stack is 4x the BB from early position. I'd put him on a hand like A/Q here, and I don't mind pushing, since our stack is large enough that he'll consider folding A/Q, and if he does call, we're slightly ahead and could become a much stronger stack ourselves.

With blinds at the 250/500 level, we don't have a lot of room to manuever and make plays with 7500 in chips. While we certainly aren't in the "red zone" at this point, it won't take long for us to be. And just moving a few places up in the money at this point isn't going to net us much extra. I'd be playing to accumulate chips, and thus taking risks (calculated risks) to achieve those stacks.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
The UTG limper doesn't have to have a monster (as we saw in this case, he folded). He's short-stacked relative to the blinds and he's limping UTG. That, to me, usually indicates a donk who's squeeked into the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

What percentage of times do you think UTG is limping short stacked with something mediocre hes willing to fold to a push - and what percentage is it a short stack trying to get action with AA-KK?

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

I think given your descriptions I fold here. Sounds like a real tight table where you can steal when you need to, I wait until my hand is a little better to put in the 3rd raise.

I went out about 20 players before this with a set of aces against a set of 5's, all in on the turn, and the case 5 hit [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Only time I cna remember getting knocked out by a 1 outer.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The UTG limper doesn't have to have a monster (as we saw in this case, he folded). He's short-stacked relative to the blinds and he's limping UTG. That, to me, usually indicates a donk who's squeeked into the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

What percentage of times do you think UTG is limping short stacked with something mediocre hes willing to fold to a push - and what percentage is it a short stack trying to get action with AA-KK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know that I could apply a percentage here, since my read would be based on that specific player and what I've seen. I typically regard limping UTG short-stacked as a pretty poor move, since if you do have A/A or K/K you're allowing drawing hands in cheaply to the flop.

With UTG+1 raising, he figures to have some of the cards we might be worried that our limper has (provided our limper has a monster). If our limper does have a monster, and we push and he pushes and the original raiser can't ignore the great pot odds, then the original raiser is likely drawing to very few outs, allowing us to win the side pot and at least break even on the hand.

But again, I don't always give credit to the limping UTG short-stacked player. usually these donks will min-raise with A/A or K/K, giving the BB great odds to outdraw them.

Tournament results cycle
 

Interesting to hear you talk about your good Augustfalling off in September. For me it was June that was so good, when I was reading well and winning all my coin flips. Then it tailed off in July, when I felt I was still playing well but not winning as many flips, and getting unlucky a lot more. That led to a dreadful AUgust where bad luck turned into just bad play, as I busted out in the first hour again and again.

In my personal experience the cycle continues with my play improving but still running bad, (I think I'm there now) followed by a good run when the cards turn. I guess my challenge is to remove that part where I start playing bad in reaction to the lack of results.

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think given your descriptions I fold here. Sounds like a real tight table where you can steal when you need to, I wait until my hand is a little better to put in the 3rd raise.


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Second raise, but how do you know what the blinds are like when hes in LP? Stealing costs a good % of his stack, if he runs into a hand or two he could be crippled really fast, this is a good spot to double up with good overlay, and if he wins, he can now dominate this "tight" table.

Re: Tournament results cycle
 

[ QUOTE ]
In my personal experience the cycle continues with my play improving but still running bad, (I think I'm there now) followed by a good run when the cards turn. I guess my challenge is to remove that part where I start playing bad in reaction to the lack of results.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think my poor start in Sept. is due mostly to poor decisions on my part. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Regards,
Woodguy