Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

Yuck. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. Gotta fold here. You're dealing with an UTG limp and UTG+1; best case says UTG is a donk limping w/a middle pair, and UTG+1 is isolating w/AK/AQ. That's your rosiest picture, there's plenty worse. Get out.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

Alright apparantly I can't read. So let's just play pretend and say there were something like 140 or 150 left and 130 pay.

Everett

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't fault folding here maybe 20-25% of the time, but I think it's a push the other 75-80%.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying act randomly, where 1/4 times you fold and 3/4 you call? That seems silly since you're not worried about disguising your play.

I agree that most of the times you see this action you need to push (though it's somewhat marginal). However given this specific situation, I think a push not right.

Is there any merit in calling?

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

Well in any setting where you respect your players I really do think you can justify a fold here. I mean if MLG limps under the gun here and then TJ Cloutier makes that 4xbb raise I can lay it down.

But on the other hand this is PP and you have JJ and 15bb where all the money is top heavy and a coinflip with overlay is not at all something to be fearful of.

-Jason

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

I shove and I hate it. If you had better reads, I could see folding here though.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't fault folding here maybe 20-25% of the time, but I think it's a push the other 75-80%.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're saying act randomly, where 1/4 times you fold and 3/4 you call? That seems silly since you're not worried about disguising your play.

I agree that most of the times you see this action you need to push (though it's somewhat marginal). However given this specific situation, I think a push not right.

Is there any merit in calling?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm saying that it will depend on your read of the other players, your particular play-style, etc. There are a number of factors that must be taken into consideration in these spots.

The UTG limper doesn't have to have a monster (as we saw in this case, he folded). He's short-stacked relative to the blinds and he's limping UTG. That, to me, usually indicates a donk who's squeeked into the money.

The raise from the larger stack is 4x the BB from early position. I'd put him on a hand like A/Q here, and I don't mind pushing, since our stack is large enough that he'll consider folding A/Q, and if he does call, we're slightly ahead and could become a much stronger stack ourselves.

With blinds at the 250/500 level, we don't have a lot of room to manuever and make plays with 7500 in chips. While we certainly aren't in the "red zone" at this point, it won't take long for us to be. And just moving a few places up in the money at this point isn't going to net us much extra. I'd be playing to accumulate chips, and thus taking risks (calculated risks) to achieve those stacks.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
The UTG limper doesn't have to have a monster (as we saw in this case, he folded). He's short-stacked relative to the blinds and he's limping UTG. That, to me, usually indicates a donk who's squeeked into the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

What percentage of times do you think UTG is limping short stacked with something mediocre hes willing to fold to a push - and what percentage is it a short stack trying to get action with AA-KK?

Re: JJ, Super Tuesday, just into the money
 

I think given your descriptions I fold here. Sounds like a real tight table where you can steal when you need to, I wait until my hand is a little better to put in the 3rd raise.

I went out about 20 players before this with a set of aces against a set of 5's, all in on the turn, and the case 5 hit [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Only time I cna remember getting knocked out by a 1 outer.

Re: Results/Thoughts
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The UTG limper doesn't have to have a monster (as we saw in this case, he folded). He's short-stacked relative to the blinds and he's limping UTG. That, to me, usually indicates a donk who's squeeked into the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

What percentage of times do you think UTG is limping short stacked with something mediocre hes willing to fold to a push - and what percentage is it a short stack trying to get action with AA-KK?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know that I could apply a percentage here, since my read would be based on that specific player and what I've seen. I typically regard limping UTG short-stacked as a pretty poor move, since if you do have A/A or K/K you're allowing drawing hands in cheaply to the flop.

With UTG+1 raising, he figures to have some of the cards we might be worried that our limper has (provided our limper has a monster). If our limper does have a monster, and we push and he pushes and the original raiser can't ignore the great pot odds, then the original raiser is likely drawing to very few outs, allowing us to win the side pot and at least break even on the hand.

But again, I don't always give credit to the limping UTG short-stacked player. usually these donks will min-raise with A/A or K/K, giving the BB great odds to outdraw them.

Tournament results cycle
 

Interesting to hear you talk about your good Augustfalling off in September. For me it was June that was so good, when I was reading well and winning all my coin flips. Then it tailed off in July, when I felt I was still playing well but not winning as many flips, and getting unlucky a lot more. That led to a dreadful AUgust where bad luck turned into just bad play, as I busted out in the first hour again and again.

In my personal experience the cycle continues with my play improving but still running bad, (I think I'm there now) followed by a good run when the cards turn. I guess my challenge is to remove that part where I start playing bad in reaction to the lack of results.