Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
 

Villian is relatively tight, seems solid enough. He's definitely not the player I'm focusing on at this table.

I figured him for a set the majority of the time. Top two is possible, NFD is possible. One pair is not.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) converter

SB ($111.95)
BB ($51.05)
UTG ($52.90)
MP ($117.75)
Hero ($94.60)
Button ($142.90)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $2</font>, MP calls $2, Hero calls $2, Button calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1.

Flop: ($10.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $140.9 All-In</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP folds, <font color="red"> Hero ???????? </font>

Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
 

easy call. You are a favorite over anything but a set. expect to see two pair more often than anything else. I think nut flush draw is highly unlikely. I'd call this.

Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
 

Look at it this way. He has...

A set - you lose 60% of the time

A Nut flush draw - you lose 63% of the time

Two pair - You win 51% of the time

The bet is huge, given the range you put him on this is a fold and its not even close.

Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
 

15 outs for str8 or flush, 47 cards remaining (about 2:1 odds against), and you are getting roughly 1:1 odds on your money, right? If you insist on putting all your money into the pot, shouldn't you do it on a semibluff?

Or are you adding 6 more outs because you are thinking a pair would win?

Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
 

I do not consider pairs to be outs.

I'm getting 1.365:1 on my money.

Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
 

If he's solid, would he really play a set like this? Doing this with two-pair would seem more likely from a solid player.

Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he's solid, would he really play a set like this? Doing this with two-pair would seem more likely from a solid player.

[/ QUOTE ]

With two Broadway cards and a flush on the board, I play two pair and a set the same way: FAST. I am going to make someone overpay to hit their draw.

Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
A set - you lose 60% of the time

A Nut flush draw - you lose 63% of the time

Two pair - You win 51% of the time

The bet is huge, given the range you put him on this is a fold and its not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I only have $82 left. I'm getting 1.35:1 on my money, which is only a marginally bad call against a set. Folding when he holds two pair would be terrible.

I'm not sure which move is correct, but it's very close.

Edit: I think I just answered my own question about what to do....

Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
 

don't forget the ever dreaded AT clubs.

I think in these situations, I just think about my metagame purposes and the value of knowing what he pushes here with as next time you might face a similar decision only holding JT.

Re: Gamboooool?? Big draw vs all-in overbet.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
A set - you lose 60% of the time

A Nut flush draw - you lose 63% of the time

Two pair - You win 51% of the time

The bet is huge, given the range you put him on this is a fold and its not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I only have $82 left. I'm getting 1.35:1 on my money, which is only a marginally bad call against a set. Folding when he holds two pair would be terrible.

I'm not sure which move is correct, but it's very close.

Edit: I think I just answered my own question about what to do....

[/ QUOTE ]

don't forget the possibility of 89 clubs.

that would be awesome if you call and win with K high.