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-   -   Calculating the odds of hitting a hand on the flop (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=407029)

12-29-2005 09:45 AM

Calculating the odds of hitting a hand on the flop
 
I'm would be grateful if someone could point me in the right direction on how to make calculations on the probability a hand will hit on the flop.
For example suppose a player in early position raises to 3BB pre-flop. Two other players call that bet. It comes to me on the button and I have a hand like 56s or even 56o or J3s. I'm not looking for the probability these hans will win because I would fold them on the flop if they do not hit and would not play it to the turn or river. I would like to know how to calculate the probability of hitting a straight or a flush with these hands or even a draw to a straight or a flush on the flop so I know what implied odds I would need pre-flop to play these hands. Any help is appreciated.

BruceZ 12-29-2005 09:53 AM

Re: Calculating the odds of hitting a hand on the flop
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'm would be grateful if someone could point me in the right direction on how to make calculations on the probability a hand will hit on the flop.
For example suppose a player in early position raises to 3BB pre-flop. Two other players call that bet. It comes to me on the button and I have a hand like 56s or even 56o or J3s. I'm not looking for the probability these hans will win because I would fold them on the flop if they do not hit and would not play it to the turn or river. I would like to know how to calculate the probability of hitting a straight or a flush with these hands or even a draw to a straight or a flush on the flop so I know what implied odds I would need pre-flop to play these hands. Any help is appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

This post and related links has the info for suited connectors, and you can apply some of this to the other hands as well.

12-29-2005 10:00 AM

Re: Calculating the odds of hitting a hand on the flop
 
The only stat I know off the top of my head is that you will only flop a pair or better 35% of the time. I think what you should try to do more with those hands (5/6o) is play them in late position and as cheaply as possible (unless you think you can steal the blinds). From the what the board reads, you'll have a better idea of how to play it from there (i.e. if you are open ended after the flop you have about a 32% chance of making your straight, so if you are getting at least 3 to 1 on your money you should call to see the turn etc.). If you want actual odds charts and such, almost any poker book has one, or just google it.

Good Luck.

Gregg777 12-30-2005 03:07 PM

Re: Calculating the odds of hitting a hand on the flop
 
The probability forum would help you out better.

Here is a link to some helpful stats

Vuron00 12-30-2005 03:36 PM

Re: Calculating the odds of hitting a hand on the flop
 
Smokepoker.com has screen backgrounds that have this data listed. I think it might be what you want (and they have some nice pics).

BruceZ 12-30-2005 05:56 PM

Re: Calculating the odds of hitting a hand on the flop
 
[ QUOTE ]
The probability forum would help you out better.

Here is a link to some helpful stats

[/ QUOTE ]

That website is no good.


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