$11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

A while back I posted some questions about betting impetus. Well this hand came up, and immediately made me think of it.



***** Hand History for Game 2742443346 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:15896912 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Tuesday, September 20, 00:14:06 EDT 2005
Table Table 35064 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: PotStuck ( $1010 )
Seat 3: mikeb1953 ( $820 )
Seat 5: SBchampsx4 ( $2222 )
Seat 7: mjcasale69 ( $1370 )
Seat 8: pattywack85 ( $775 )
Seat 9: mettrack ( $780 )
Seat 10: SutedAcez ( $1023 )
Trny:15896912 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to pattywack85 [ 8d 8h ]
PotStuck folds.
mikeb1953 folds.
SBchampsx4 folds.
mjcasale69 folds.
pattywack85 calls [30].
mettrack calls [15].
SutedAcez folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, Ad, Js ]
mettrack checks.
pattywack85 bets [65].


Some of you guys may look at this and tell me to raise. The reason I didn't is because a few days ago, I read this thread by Strassa where he said he'd be more inclined to limp because if he gets a set he might get some action, rather than raise and pick up the relatively worthless blinds.

Of course the flop came out like what I expected...nothing great, but it probably missed them. It checked to me, and I made the obligatory bet.

Before I made it, I thought to myself that I had betting impetus by virtue of being the last person to VP$IP. Then I wondered if there are different degrees of impetus, like strong or weak I guess. Had I raised preflop, I'd have more impetus than when I just limp. There's no real reason for anyone to fold a jack there, but they might if I raised.

Hopefully this makes some sense. I realize it's a rather unremarkable hand, but I drew upon two ideas that I read recently, and wanted to examine how they relate.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

Sheesh, am I reading it right--you limped, SB completed, and the BB folded anyway. Guess the BB really isn't cooperating with our whole Flop a Set, Stack a Donk plan.

Maybe I'm too tight here, but from the button in level two I will often limp 88 here as well, and even if I don't flop that set I'm confident our position will let us still play the hand well. And that's what happened here: if villain played back at you after your flop bet it's easy to let this one go.

I think I'm using the term too narrowly, but when I think of seizing the "betting impetus," or whatever, I'm doing it because I think it will give me the advantage of momentum on streets that are very likely still to come. For instance a small raise that doesn't rate to win the pot right there, but is more just to put the villan on his heels for the next street.

But if you raise preflop here, I think it's pretty much to avoid seeing the next street. You're raising to take down the blinds with what is likely the best hand preflop. True: A raise here will give you more momentum than a limp, and a standard c-bet following a raise will likely get them to lay down more hands than they would have following a limp. But for my style, blinds on level two with these stacks usually aren't worth that extra edge. I'd rather just make faces at the screen and say snowman snowman snowman right before the flop comes out. And then if I miss the set--like I will 7 in 8 times--I'll still scoop the blinds a decent amount of the time anyway, like when the flop comes ace high and they fold to my bet because my pf limp looked at least as much like Ax as it did 88.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

Mr. Sir,

While I read your post and respond, could you please change your avater? I am dreadfully afraid of African American rappers

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

#A. what is a c-bet. And please dont tell me to search for it, i like men.
#B. I feel you are over analysing this common situation, but I dont know why nor am I able to explain my thoughts on this situation because frankly I have no idea what you two just said.
#B. You may or may not be trying to get conversation on a new part of SNG's but you should truely be trying to work on the more meaningful parts of the SNG structure, not the part that will double you up once every 157 SNG's.
#C. Move the [censored] up.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

Well I definitely raise preflop.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

Also the blinds are always worth stealing. If you begin a tournament with 45 extra chips, your ROI when compared to starting with just 1000 goes up signifigantly. If you look at it this way you will see that stealing the blinds does matter.

I actually brought this up a long time ago when I posted a theoretical question asking if everyone in the event started with 5 fewer chips and gave them all to you, what would your ROI be assuming you were all of equal skill level. I can't remember what the number was, but it was enough to make me dismiss the argument that stealing the blinds means nothing. I think it was something like 4 - 5% ROI, an obviously signifigant amount.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

That's interesting, and I believe you. But would you raise from the cutoff (or from the hijack [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]) with 88 here in level 1? Is the chance of winning those 25 chips worth more than the implied odds of hitting a flop hard? I guess they might be. And then I guess you can also still hit a flop hard even if you raised. Hm, I might be playing this situation too weakly.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

I would definitely raise with 88 here. Im sure limping isn't terrible, but I still prefer to raise by quite a large margin. Also I have had one of the players call and then still hit a set. In this case the pot is larger and it's quite a bit more likely to get all or more of your money in the pot.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]
#B. You may or may not be trying to get conversation on a new part of SNG's but you should truely be trying to work on the more meaningful parts of the SNG structure, not the part that will double you up once every 157 SNG's.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so worried about this particular situation (limping with a mid pair on the button), but rather it prompted some questions in me about betting impetus. Which, from what I've read, is a very important concept that I'd like to understand better. I'm just trying to take to heart what eastbay said:

[ QUOTE ]
this game isn't a disconnected infinite grab bag of "what do I do here" questions, but rather just a few principles, once mastered, that answer most questions one could reasonably ask

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

OK, I'm convinced, I'll experiment with not open-limping my midpairs so habitually in lvls 1 and 2. Thank you.

And if you have time, could you also please teach me how to do this...

[ QUOTE ]
to get all or more of your money in the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ty

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also the blinds are always worth stealing. If you begin a tournament with 45 extra chips, your ROI when compared to starting with just 1000 goes up signifigantly. If you look at it this way you will see that stealing the blinds does matter.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah I remember that thread, couldn't find it after doing some searching.

Let me first say I agree that getting those extra chips definitely matters, I'm not arguing that point. Is it worth trying to pick them up at the 11s? I haven't checked this out a lot, but it feels like the vast majority of my early round steal attempts get action, so I don't have a high success rate of picking them up uncontested. Do the times when I win because I use my position postflop, and when I make a hand that I'm happy to play hard, make up for all the times I get called and have to give up?

Just so you know I'm not challenging what you said. It feels like raises get called a lot more than they should, so I'm wondering if it's worth it to try to pick up blinds with weaker hands.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

I dunno man, everyone folded to you on the button for only 15 chips, dont you think its possible that two more will fold for about 30 chips? Even if they call, you are still in a pretty decent +EV scenario. If you had something like 22-55 calling seems a lot more reasonable.

88 is just too likely to be the best hand against one opponent even without hitting a set, and also can be easy to play depending on the flop.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

Just seems that a lot of the 11ers will call a lot because they feel like you're denying them their right to a free flop or something. But the fact that I have position and a solid starting hand should more than make up for the times I lose chips when they outflop me.

Okay now for the main point of my post. Had I raised preflop, then betting would be a no-brainer. But since I just limped, should I be less likely to lead into it, because I didn't show any strength? I mean in this situation I'm definitely betting when it's checked to me, but I guess in general if I limp ont the button should I be less willing to lead?

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

You should still lead the flop, your opponent likely has nothing, and the % of times he will fold make your bet clearly +EV IMO.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]
I actually brought this up a long time ago when I posted a theoretical question asking if everyone in the event started with 5 fewer chips and gave them all to you, what would your ROI be assuming you were all of equal skill level. I can't remember what the number was, but it was enough to make me dismiss the argument that stealing the blinds means nothing. I think it was something like 4 - 5% ROI, an obviously signifigant amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

Intuitively this seems like a rediculous statement.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I actually brought this up a long time ago when I posted a theoretical question asking if everyone in the event started with 5 fewer chips and gave them all to you, what would your ROI be assuming you were all of equal skill level. I can't remember what the number was, but it was enough to make me dismiss the argument that stealing the blinds means nothing. I think it was something like 4 - 5% ROI, an obviously signifigant amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

Intuitively this seems like a rediculous statement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Boy, I concur. So, Curtains, you're arguing that if I am a 10% ROI'er at the $109's, I'd improve to be a 14%-15% ROI'er at the $109's if I started with T1045 and all my opponents started with T995???? I can't prove or disprove this, of course, but it makes zero sense to me that my ROI could improve by 40%-50% just because I start with 70 big blinds and all my opponents start with 67 big blinds. My best guess is that this advantage (T1045 to T995 of all your opponents) may improve your ROI ever so slightly, but the inherent variance built into the SNG is always going to swallow that improvement up, such that it's unnoticeable.

--Z

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

with 1k chip stacks of 995 for everyone and 1045 for yourself, your ev goes from .10 to .1041, or .41%
not 4%

in lower sngs with 800 starting chips, it jumps to .51%

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

The numbers were antiintuitive to me also, and was surprised they were that high.

Ask Daliman, hes the one who came up with the numbers, although after really thinking about it, I suspect the numbers are correct or at least close to correct for a table of breakeven players with no rake.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

i used ICM Calculator and it goes from .10 to .1041 w/1000 chip stacks and to .1051 with 800 chip stacks...so only .4 or .5%, not 4 or 5%

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

I'm talking about the effect it would have on your ROI, not the effect it has on your EV. The extra chips are theoretically worth about $10 in a $215 sit and go. Winning $10 more per sit and go would be worth about 4-5 percentage points of ROI. I don't profess these numbers are exact but I suspect they are relatively close. I don't see any reason why these $10 of chips should be worth only $3-4 to my ROI.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]
#A. what is a c-bet. And please dont tell me to search for it, i like men.

[/ QUOTE ]

Continuation bet.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]

Ask Daliman...

[/ QUOTE ]

You need say no more. This all but assures that these figures are worthless.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

lol. Don't worry I didn't just blindly take his advice, the numbers just seem to make sense from a theoretical standpoint, but seem absurd intuitively.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also the blinds are always worth stealing. If you begin a tournament with 45 extra chips, your ROI when compared to starting with just 1000 goes up signifigantly. If you look at it this way you will see that stealing the blinds does matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, but it's not like the blinds fold every time when you raise your 88 on the button in level 2. And while auto-betting the flop may be +EV on the flop, I'm not sure that the parlay of raising preflop & autobetting flop is +EV against loose low-stakes players who like to call lots preflop & on thef flop. But perhaps it is....I should, like, do the math.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

I'm pretty sure it is +EV [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure it is +EV [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, yeah, but you know how if you have a situation that's +0.5x CEV twice and -1x CEV twice, it's -$EV on average? anyway i'll shut up until i do some math.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

I don't think that doing math on something like this is going to be effective, and might be misleading. There are just way too many factors involved.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]
i used ICM Calculator and it goes from .10 to .1041 w/1000 chip stacks and to .1051 with 800 chip stacks...so only .4 or .5%, not 4 or 5%

[/ QUOTE ]

Going from .10 to .1041 is a 4.1% increase.

As to validity, given solid math on one hand, and incredulous disbelief on the other.... I believe the math.

Psparky

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

ok, yes, it's a 4% increase


but it doesn't add 4% to your roi number (ie doesn't take you from 15-19% roi)...it adds 51 cents in a 10/1 tourney...although that becomes $4.10 in a 109 tourney, so is useful

i was reading it as adding 4% to your roi, tho, which is why i stated it doesn't...

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]

Also I have had one of the players call and then still hit a set. In this case the pot is larger and it's quite a bit more likely to get all or more of your money in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my feeling on it.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]
ok, yes, it's a 4% increase


but it doesn't add 4% to your roi number (ie doesn't take you from 15-19% roi)...it adds 51 cents in a 10/1 tourney...although that becomes $4.10 in a 109 tourney, so is useful

i was reading it as adding 4% to your roi, tho, which is why i stated it doesn't...

[/ QUOTE ]

Well (with a few minor adjustments because of the vigorish and because the effect will be slightly reduced the better your ROI) that is exactly what it means.

Psparky

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

No it doesnt, cmon sparky are you crazy! Stop practicing your voodoo math in which the chips you win, however small, actually have a monetary value.

I admit I don't know if the chips are worth quite as much as the math indicates, but they are obviously worth something close to it, and I'm really shocked at how many people act like I'm way off base by even suggesting this and that these people can actually attempt to use my argument to portray me as insane!

It's like I'm trying to argue that the Earth is round.

extra chips and EV and the OBVIOUS ANSWER
 

You are give $8.20 in $EVicm.

If your ROI is, say 10%, you win $21.5 per and now you win $29.7 per and your ROI is 13.8%.

That wasn't the obvious answer. The obvious answer is: ASK EASTBAY!

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i used ICM Calculator and it goes from .10 to .1041 w/1000 chip stacks and to .1051 with 800 chip stacks...so only .4 or .5%, not 4 or 5%

[/ QUOTE ]

Going from .10 to .1041 is a 4.1% increase.

As to validity, given solid math on one hand, and incredulous disbelief on the other.... I believe the math.

Psparky

[/ QUOTE ]

Would somebody be so kind as to show me the solid math that demonstrates how this chip increase will add 4-5% to your ROI?

Maybe it's just a misunderstanding in semantics. It seemed as though Curtains' statement was suggesting that starting with 45 extra chips would add 4-5% to your ROI... meaning that a 10%er would become a 14-15%er.

Perhaps he just meant that it would increase your ROI by 4-5%... meaning that a 10%er would become a 10.4%er. I wouldn't argue with that.

But if you want to suggest that there is some "solid math" in this thread that proves the former, I would really like to take a closer look.

Irieguy

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

Wow you finally reply to this thread and I can't get you to cover betting impetus at all? You're killin me man.

edit: Forget my explanation of what curtains said. I'm just confused now.

Re: extra chips and EV and the OBVIOUS ANSWER
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are give (sic) $8.20 in $EVicm.

If your ROI is, say 10%, you win $21.5 per and now you win $29.7 per and your ROI is 13.8%.

That wasn't the obvious answer. The obvious answer is: ASK EASTBAY!

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, since Eastbay hasn't answered yet, I'll add some thoughts on the solution.

For the 10% ROI player who is given the extra 45 chips, their new ROI would be less than 13.8%. If you gave them all the chips, you would see that they would not get ALL the equity + whatever equity they normally would have. Also, if they ALWAYS came in first, the extra chips would be worthless. So, it would make sense that the higher their ROI is the less the extra chips would add.

In general though, if you are given something like $8.20 in equity, I don't see why it shouldn't be worth something in the ball park of $8.20. If it isn't then maybe we need to convert to block theory.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]
As for your question, curtains is talking about the second statement. 10% becomes 10.4%

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so.

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

Yeah, I edited it right after I read your initial response.

Someone tell curtains to stop hijacking my thread. I'm afraid he'll yell at me.

(just kidding. This stuff is kinda cool)

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

that's what i was thinking

Re: $11 - 88 on button, makes me wonder about betting impetus
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wow you finally reply to this thread and I can't get you to cover betting impetus at all? You're killin me man.



[/ QUOTE ]

Raise preflop. There are degrees of impetus, as you suggest, and you would like to have as much as possible under the circumstances of this hand.

Besides whatever value lies in the potential to pick up the blinds (a value which is quantitatively quite controversial, apparently), the hand plays better with the proverbial ball in your court.

Irieguy