10/20 37s
 

The pfr here is 16/10/.7 with wtsd = 28%. He seemed extremely weak/tight and that's why I took this line. I haven't done any math yet but my intuition is now telling me this might not be correct.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, I call, UTG calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button folds.

Turn: (8.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, CO folds, I call, UTG folds.

River: (13.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>

Re: 10/20 73s
 

I'm definately 3-betting the turn and not waiting. I think you will get called by any pair, any [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and you don't want to make it cheap for him to river a better flush.. he is not gonna fold.

Re: 10/20 73s
 

I agree with wackjob. I'm 3betting the turn. What was the reason for the call/donk line on the turn and river? You hoping for the overcall by utg? You obviously do not think you are behind if you are donking the river?

Are you calling a river raise?

I'd 3 bet the turn and not start to worry unless the turn is capped.

Looks like his QQ hit or he is raising KK or AA with his possible fd. Or JJ and 1010 are still possible. And AQ or KQ are also playing this way.

There is way too much out there not to 3 bet this turn.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

Think you are better off 3betting the turn though your line rocks when he has AK, but probably not enough to make up for missed bets vs AQ/KQ.

I like the flop bet, you can´t expect this guy to bet it for you and even when he raise, it will probably not limit the field too much considering the flop is pretty actionish.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

3bet the turn. K:clubs:or A:clubs: have to call that. I assume you didn't 3bet for fear of scarring out UTG+1? Well, 3bet for above reason.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

Check-call the flop. On a board like this, why are you betting out asking to pay more to try to hit your hand?

On the turn, jam it.

- Jim

Re: 10/20 37s
 

I agree, the flop is actionish. I would prefer to not be raised with only my flush outs being good.

- Jim

Re: 10/20 37s
 

Check/call this flop, you are risking paying through the nose on such a flop by betting out. Flop-texture, flop-texture, flop-texture people!

3-bet the turn, pound on dem morans!

Re: 10/20 37s
 

[ QUOTE ]
Check/call this flop, you are risking paying through the nose on such a flop by betting out.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a raised pot, Hero is the BB with 5 players to act. If he checks this board Joe, won't it almost surely come back to him bet/raised? And since he's not folding, doesn't calling 2 cold usually say "I have clubs"? If I'm not folding when it's likely to be raised, I'd much rather bet out and call 1 than 2 cold.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

There's no reason for deception in this hand. Either you make the flush and drag the pot or you don't. You'll be getting the right odds. Trying to conceal that you have a flush draw on the off chance of maybe (very dubious) making another BB or two on the end is just getting greedy imo.

- Jim

Re: 10/20 37s
 

Trix pretty much answered why I bet the flop. Assuming I get a few callers, I want money going in this pot on the flop. I couldn't count on the pfr to bet it for me since he's so passive. On that flop, even if the pfr raises, a lot of hands will call.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

[ QUOTE ]
There's no reason for deception in this hand. Either you make the flush and drag the pot or you don't. You'll be getting the right odds. Trying to conceal that you have a flush draw on the off chance of maybe (very dubious) making another BB or two on the end is just getting greedy imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure how you got that out of what I said. Deception for another BB on the end? I mentioned giving your hand away but it had little to do with my point. And getting greedy? Come on. My point is that if you're going to coldcall a raise back to you, and with 5 people behind you it's likely to be bet/raised, you're better off betting out.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

Ok, I guess I insinuated too much. One last bit though.

Why is this?

"My point is that if you're going to coldcall a raise back to you, and with 5 people behind you it's likely to be bet/raised, you're better off betting out."

What's the effective difference?

- Jim

Re: 10/20 37s
 

[ QUOTE ]
Check/call this flop, you are risking paying through the nose on such a flop by betting out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't that depend on how many people come along? I want to see one or 2 bets go in on this round with 5 people seeing hte turn. I'm not offended by that. I'm not going to get crazy with it, after all it's only a 7 high flush, if we can't depend on the continuation bet, why not bet it?

Re: 10/20 37s
 

BigE, with a flush draw, you want to cap the flop so long as you get 2 players to come along with you. True, discount this on a paired board, and it is better if you also have an overcard, but 4-flushes flops will flush out 35% of the time.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

Leading out for 2 reasons. It puts immediate pressure on the other EP guys, not letting them get a sense of what the action is before they have to act. The flop is multi-way, likely to get action and I know I'm playing it, so I'd rather act than react. I just think check/coldcalling is weak and would rather bet/call instead.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

[ QUOTE ]
BigE, with a flush draw, you want to cap the flop so long as you get 2 players to come along with you. True, discount this on a paired board, and it is better if you also have an overcard, but 4-flushes flops will flush out 35% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, i think this is horrible advice. There are re-draws to higher flushes a decent percent of the time, a higher flush draw a small percent of the time, and a set with a huge redraw a small percent of the time. You can't blindly say that u have 35% equity here so you should cap. You don't.

I am definitely in the c/c this flop camp. And i'm also three betting the turn. You don't want an overcall here. If u have the nut flush draw with an overcard, i would bet out.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

I don't agree with this. You are 2-1 to improve by the river, but in limit poker you have to pay to get there virtually all of the time.

To be for pure value, you need the number of players involved in the street to exceed the odds of getting there on the next street. And there are also reverse implied odds you inflict on yourself in other situations (flush draw and overs if you hit your over on the end and have to make a thin call in a 10BB pot).

If you're constantly jamming draws on flops with only two opponents for pure value, I think you're misguided.

- Jim

Re: 10/20 37s
 

[ QUOTE ]
Leading out for 2 reasons. It puts immediate pressure on the other EP guys, not letting them get a sense of what the action is before they have to act. The flop is multi-way, likely to get action and I know I'm playing it, so I'd rather act than react. I just think check/coldcalling is weak and would rather bet/call instead.

[/ QUOTE ]

What types of hands do you want to "put the pressure on"? It will make it tougher for Ac/ Kc/ Qc ( to call if u lead as long as they don't hit another part of the flop). But then again, if UTG is calling with Ac3h or some other random crap, do u really think he's the type to fold this b/c he anticipates it getting raised behind him? Do u think that the cold-callers that have one of these hands are going to fold even if it's raised in front of them. They would have to be cold-calling with one of these hands, which makes me think that they aren't the type to fold.

Any pair hand, i want to stay in the hand b/c it increases my overlay. Most gutshots/ OESDs will stick around anyhow (which u should want), and the only real coup would be to get a hand like Qc8h to fold, but again, if they're here with that hand, they're sticking around.

As for the value part, i would estimate u have 28-30 % equity (a completely random estimate and if someone can think of a way to do the math, i would appreciate it), so i can see it being for value, but u also may blow off the LP players if there's a bet and a raise before them, which decreases ur overlay. If u start getting funky with a c/r , then MP may 3-bet and get this HU, so i don't like that so much either.

As for the second reason, i don't really get this. Is this just part of "me have equity me raise me not weak" 2+2 mantra?

Re: 10/20 37s
 

im quite surprised at how many ppl like to pump their 7 high flush draws.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

[ QUOTE ]
im quite surprised at how many ppl like to pump their 7 high flush draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would not pump here meaning I would not bet/3-bet.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is this just part of "me have equity me raise me not weak" 2+2 mantra?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice one.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

Treat each street as a prop bet. On the money that gets in on the flop, Jason_T takes 30-37% (maybe he gets running 3s). Thus, juice the pot when there are 3 others certainly and often when there are only 2. Fine, it is a 7-hi flush draw, but the odds that someone else both has the same draw AND the draw gets there are rather low. Fine, there is a redraw, but that doesn't change the fact that if a redraw is possible, your turn equity is huge. There are other poker theories that, at times, override this principle, but if you treat limit poker as street by street prop bets with the taking of poor odds being the cost of admission to the entire pot, you'll do well (or at least slightly better than if you didn't do this).

Re: 10/20 37s
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is this just part of "me have equity me raise me not weak" 2+2 mantra?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice one.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry if i was an [censored], i tend to be that way.

Also check ur pm.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

Your prop bet is not taking into account the money you have to put in on the turn if you miss but assuming you still have 2-1 equity.

- Jim

Re: 10/20 37s
 

The turn is a new street. I don't plan to juice the street. On the flop, I want to juice it, because I have 35% eq. On the turn, my eq is down to 18%, so it is a rare pot indeed that I'd want to juice. On the red turn, I become the one how has to take a bad prop bet for access to a huge pot.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

hi cardsharp,

your equity is somewhat less than 35% on the flop.

Re: 10/20 73s
 

When he doesn't raise the flop, I pretty much ruled out an overpair hand like QQ or a monster like JJ. When he pops the turn, I think his most likely hands are KQ, AQ and AK with a very very very small chance of TT/JJ/QQ. Without a flush draw, I'm worried that he'll dump KQ and AQ to a 3-bet cause of his low wtsd number. So I called planning to check/raise the river but then the river was a bad card for that plan as I was afraid he'd be weak again and check behind.

Re: 10/20 73s
 

[ QUOTE ]
When he doesn't raise the flop, I pretty much ruled out an overpair hand like QQ or a monster like JJ. When he pops the turn, I think his most likely hands are KQ, AQ and AK with a very very very small chance of TT/JJ/QQ. Without a flush draw, I'm worried that he'll dump KQ and AQ to a 3-bet cause of his low wtsd number. So I called planning to check/raise the river but then the river was a bad card for that plan as I was afraid he'd be weak again and check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your logic, but I'm not sure if I agree with the play in this instance. Even with his tight play I think he is hard pressed to give up tptk especially given his likely hands of KQ or AQ where he still has an oesd or gs draw and he may also have 4 to the flush now. Also, I don't see him folding his made straight if he has AK.

Get your money in now. And really if you take it down, you take it down. The pot is damn big and I don't want to see the other dude overcall with his solo club and redraw you out of the hand.

Re: 10/20 73s
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When he doesn't raise the flop, I pretty much ruled out an overpair hand like QQ or a monster like JJ. When he pops the turn, I think his most likely hands are KQ, AQ and AK with a very very very small chance of TT/JJ/QQ. Without a flush draw, I'm worried that he'll dump KQ and AQ to a 3-bet cause of his low wtsd number. So I called planning to check/raise the river but then the river was a bad card for that plan as I was afraid he'd be weak again and check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your logic, but I'm not sure if I agree with the play in this instance. Even with his tight play I think he is hard pressed to give up tptk especially given his likely hands of KQ or AQ where he still has an oesd or gs draw and he may also have 4 to the flush now. Also, I don't see him folding his made straight if he has AK.

Get your money in now. And really if you take it down, you take it down. The pot is damn big and I don't want to see the other dude overcall with his solo club and redraw you out of the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah it's the third guy that complicates the thinking and the math. It's probably best to just remember the Win Large Pots Immediately section from TOP, 3-bet and get on with it.

Re: 10/20 37s
 

[ QUOTE ]
im quite surprised at how many ppl like to pump their 7 high flush draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

I resemble this remark on 6 handed flops!

-DeathDonkey

Re: 10/20 37s
 

i don't have a preference either way on the flop though i have to admit i am a flop pumper. lots of hands are calling you and i do not mind at all paying 2 bets on this flop with multiple enemies. i would not however bet-3-bet.

i would bet-3-bet the turn though. you are too worried about him folding hands and not worried enough about not getting enough value out of hands he WILL call with (not to mention the guy in the middle who may be tagging along with something).

Re: 10/20 37s
 

I would tend to check the flop and tend to 3-bet the turn. I don't think betting because you're afraid of a JT6 flop being checked through is necessarily great.

Rob

Re: 10/20 37s
 

[ QUOTE ]
im quite surprised at how many ppl like to pump their 7 high flush draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would make more sense if the flop was 426 w/2 clubs but it's not. I'm amazed too.