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-   -   Stud Winrate, possible move up? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=402617)

 lstream 12-21-2005 09:16 PM

Re: Stud Winrate, possible move up?

Update to my last post. I have played less hands than I thought - it looks like approximately 39,000 5/10 hands. I play about 54 hands per hour, not 60. Looking at my actual spreadsheet shows an implied BB/100 of 2.67. I also think this number is likely to head down, because I went on huge heater when I first started at 5/10. 39,000 is not likely a big enough sample.

 12-21-2005 10:52 PM

Re: Stud Winrate, possible move up?

Some more comments on Win Rate and other stats.

I agree with most here that a sample of 7500 will mot necessarily encompass all the swings that a player's bankroll will undergo so there is some error. But I would guess that when you do have such a sample the accuracy is somewhere around +/-10% at least 90% of the time or better.

But here's another point, if an adequate sample is only around 100,000 hands, Win rate becomes meaningless except maybe for those who play 1000 hands per day.
Otherwise, (and I would suspect this is the case for most players who are learning) Win Rate measured over long periods becomes meaningless because it fails to account for many other elements such as change in play, stakes, etc.

And the question of sample size applies to all systematic analysis of players. In another note, wish lists of player stats for software to display were requested. I think people requested fold, raise rates, etc. How many hands do you need to sample before you get a predictable 3rd st call rate? 4th st? 5th?

 Alex/Mugaaz 12-22-2005 09:02 AM

Re: Stud Winrate, possible move up?

[ QUOTE ]
As an interesting sidenote:

Just so you know the difference in difficulty between the 5-10 and the 10-20/20-40's, there is no player at the latter levels that makes 2BB/100 or more. Of course this is over a fair number of hands.

Mike Emery

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a guess or do is there some stud tracking software I don't know about?

 12-22-2005 06:19 PM

Re: Stud Winrate, possible move up?

The swings in 10/20 are much greater than 5/10. There is more aggresive betting and semi-bluffing going on. Less limping on 3rd. More completions on third. A tougher game in general, although there are times when it is riper to play. If you become familliar with your opponents, you will know when that riper time is.

But beware, that the swings can be great at time and you might be comfortable with a \$1,000-\$1500 swing downward. It can be a profitable game, but if you're not comfortable with wider swings, it might not be for you. But if you are looking for a more interesting and exciting game, then you will enjoy it, especially if you can win at it.

Good luck.

 highlife 12-29-2005 04:32 PM

Re: Stud Winrate, possible move up?

[ QUOTE ]
But here's another point, if an adequate sample is only around 100,000 hands, Win rate becomes meaningless except maybe for those who play 1000 hands per day.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a ridiculous statement. you should say something like "winrate becomes somewhat less meaningful" and maybe we could agree.

you are basically saying it doesn't matter at all what your prior success in the game is because current conditions are not the same as those shown in the past results.

 12-29-2005 05:20 PM

Re: Stud Winrate, possible move up?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But here's another point, if an adequate sample is only around 100,000 hands, Win rate becomes meaningless except maybe for those who play 1000 hands per day.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is a ridiculous statement. you should say something like "winrate becomes somewhat less meaningful" and maybe we could agree.

you are basically saying it doesn't matter at all what your prior success in the game is because current conditions are not the same as those shown in the past results.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, how's about: it becomes way less less meaningful. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

My point was that most players, after 100,000 hands, will be playing a different game. 100,000 hands could take several years.

 highlife 12-29-2005 06:26 PM

Re: Stud Winrate, possible move up?

ok, so in your opinion, is there any time winrate is meaningful?

 12-29-2005 09:05 PM

Re: Stud Winrate, possible move up?

[ QUOTE ]
ok, so in your opinion, is there any time winrate is meaningful?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me give an example of what I mean.

Imagine a player has been playing 4 years and plays at about 500 hands / weeks, for a total of ~100,000 hands. Very likely (and only if he follows this forum and reads 7cs4ap [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]) his game will be improving all along. If the player looks at his win rate over the period of 4 years, it will provide an average of how he did over these 100,000 hands but it will likely not give an accurate reading of his current winrate. In this case, he should probably look at a smaller and more recent sample (6 months?). The error on the number obtained will be greater but should be more meaningful.

On the other hand, I agree (and know from personal experience) that a sample of 10,000 hands might very well be misleading. It might not capture some up or down swings.

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