Semi-nut FH meets heavy resistance?
 

Party Poker (7 handed) $2/4
CO posts dead blind ($2)
Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Villain is 50/5.45/1.45 over 50 hands. Hadn't seen him make any noticable plays, so only had the numbers to go from.

2 folds, Villain call, CO checks, Hero raise, SB fold, BB call, Villain call, CO fold.

Flop (7.5 SB)
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9
BB check, Villain bet, hero raise, BB folds, Villain 3-bet hero cap, Villan call.

At this point I put him on a 2 pocket pair and of course possibly a 9.

Turn (9.75 BB)
[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9
Villain bet, Hero raise, Villain 3-bet, hero call.

With the 3rd 9, the chance of him having the last one was very small, but the 3-bet made me fear KK/AA that for some reason wasn't raise preflop. However, I still didn't rule out a 2 or pocket pair, perhaps TT or JJ.

RIver (12.75 BB)
[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q
Villain bet, hero raise, villain 3-bet, hero caps.

I improved to a better FH, beating possible KK/AA.

Thoughts?

Re: Semi-nut FH meets heavy resistance?
 

Villian's numbers are pretty bad, so the turn cap is ok, I just call the river though I think. Nothing really changes on the river, I think he is very unlikely to have AA/KK.

Re: Semi-nut FH meets heavy resistance?
 

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With the 3rd 9, the chance of him having the last one was very small, but the 3-bet made me fear KK/AA that for some reason wasn't raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

For what it's worth, on the turn there are 45 available hand combinations that contain a nine. AA/KK together is 12 combos.

Even though he's very loose, Villain is dumping the worst of those nines preflop, I'd imagine. But there are still a lot of ways he could have quads, and you shouldn't dismiss the possibility too casually.

I don't think I would have put in quite as much action as you did during this hand. I might have just called on the turn, and I don't think I would have capped the river.

Edit: I'd have a hard time not raising after improving on the river. But catching queens full didn't really pull you ahead of very many hands that you weren't already beating.

Re: Semi-nut FH meets heavy resistance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
For what it's worth, on the turn there are 45 available hand combinations that contain a nine. AA/KK together is 12 combos.

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It's not worth much. This kind of hand analysis always leaves me bewildered because so few of the hands containing a 9 are rational.

Re: Semi-nut FH meets heavy resistance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For what it's worth, on the turn there are 45 available hand combinations that contain a nine. AA/KK together is 12 combos.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not worth much. This kind of hand analysis always leaves me bewildered because so few of the hands containing a 9 are rational.

[/ QUOTE ]

When you're dealing with someone with a 50VPIP of their hands I think you can start thinking in these terms a little more. A 9 is still more likely than AA or KK, but with this guys numbers I don't think those are the only possibilities. He could have any pocket pair I think.

Re: Semi-nut FH meets heavy resistance?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For what it's worth, on the turn there are 45 available hand combinations that contain a nine. AA/KK together is 12 combos.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not worth much. This kind of hand analysis always leaves me bewildered because so few of the hands containing a 9 are rational.

[/ QUOTE ]

My guess is that this Villain is playing most if not all of the following: A9, K9, Q9, J9, T9, 98. That's 24 combos. (Edit: Actually, it's 22 combos, since we hold QQ.) And probably he's playing most if not all suited nines below that.

I think we're too quick to dismiss the possibility that someone holds quads when there are trips on the board.

True, AAA on the board is much scarier than 222, but I think 999 is something to worry about, at some point, versus this opponent.