15/30 AK
 

UTG+1 is 26.5/14.1/2.6 after 8000 hands. The rest of these players are unknown but I picked this table because they all seemed loose and passive.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: I am MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I 3-bet</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (16.66 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">I bet</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, I call, MP3 calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (13.33 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">I raise</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>

Re: 15/30 AK
 

UTG seems decent and you've shown a lot of strength.

I think you're probably screwed by 99, but I guess there's also a decent chance you're chopping.

The guys in the middle don't seem too great, so I'm not overly concerned about them at this point. They could be slowplaying something I suppose, but it seems more likely they're hoping to hit a flush or a gut-shot, or have a worse King.

I would call the turn and most likely put one bet in on any non-diamond river card.

Re: 15/30 AK
 

WTF are MP3 and CO calling three cold with preflop??

My initial reaction is to 3 bet the flop, but I'm not sure it will drive those other goombas out of the way. I still think it is the best play though as you likely have the best hand and is for value, you might knock out those two goombas, it can charge diamonds and help define +1's hand.

As for the Turn. Agg. of 2.6 is rather large and thus I'd likely call down hoping for a chop. However, I would think he caps preflop with AK. 99 looks more likely, but I'm not giving this guy enough credit for that given his agg. and I don't want to give up this enormous pot. This is another reason I want to put more bets in on the flop.

Re: 15/30 AK
 

I think 3-betting the flop would be a better option because you gain two SB's from the donks behind you and you also force UTG+1 to define his hand more. Given your line, I like calling down here. The two most likely holdings are AA and 99, with AK as a small third possibility. However, because your opponent is so aggressive, it's quite likely you will be chopping.

Re: 15/30 AK
 

Why not 3-bet the flop.U loose less if behind and clear up all gut shot and sm. pair draws.U can`t get flush draws out no matter what and u r not afraid of overcards(u like one).
What happened?

Re: 15/30 AK
 

it is time to shut down and call down. His stats and play do not indicate AK, but KQ, AK, 99 are all possibilities.

Re: 15/30 AK
 

3-betting the flop offers 12:1 on a call. QT and JT aren't going anywhere peeps.

Calling and raising the turn offers 8:1 and gets more money in against KQ etc when the wayyyyyyyy averaggro dude has that.

I hate calling down here but I do it. That guy usually has 99/K9s here but AQd, AJd, even KQs and obviously a chop are enough of a consideration that I'm seeing a showdown unless one of the people raises behind me, especially on a diamond.

Re: 15/30 AK
 

3-betting the flop is terrible.

Re: 15/30 AK
 

You absolutely HAVE to 3-bet the flop here. No way would I give all these callers a chance to draw out on my likely best hand for free. You need to do everything you can to get this pot heads up. It's the correct move, even if you are crushed by UTG+1 on the flop (his range, on the flop, includes lots of suited broadway cards, so there's a good chance you're ahead already).

Re: 15/30 AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
You absolutely HAVE to 3-bet the flop here. No way would I give all these callers a chance to draw out on my likely best hand for free. You need to do everything you can to get this pot heads up. It's the correct move, even if you are crushed by UTG+1 on the flop (his range, on the flop, includes lots of suited broadway cards, so there's a good chance you're ahead already).

[/ QUOTE ]

3-betting the flop is actually a lot worse than calling.

Re: 15/30 AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
3-betting the flop offers 12:1 on a call. QT and JT aren't going anywhere peeps.

[/ QUOTE ]

This reasoning is flawed on three levels:

1) You can't assume your opponents think like you do.
2) Since when does this make it not correct to charge them for their draws? Them making a correct call if you were to raise DOES NOT mmake it incorrect to raise.
3) Weaker Kings should also be charged to draw here

Re: 15/30 AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3-betting the flop offers 12:1 on a call. QT and JT aren't going anywhere peeps.

[/ QUOTE ]

This reasoning is flawed on three levels:

1) You can't assume your opponents think like you do.
2) Since when does this make it not correct to charge them for their draws? Them making a correct call if you were to raise DOES NOT mmake it incorrect to raise.
3) Weaker Kings should also be charged to draw here

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I don't disagree with any of that. But against UTG+1 + the field's range you're making more money on a turn raise.

It's hand protection+value and you satisfy both with a turn raise.

Rob

Re: 15/30 AK
 

[ QUOTE ]

I hate calling down here but I do it.

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and FWIW

[ QUOTE ]
3-betting the flop is terrible

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Re: 15/30 AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
3-betting the flop offers 12:1 on a call. QT and JT aren't going anywhere peeps.

Calling and raising the turn offers 8:1 and gets more money in against KQ etc when the wayyyyyyyy averaggro dude has that.

I hate calling down here but I do it. That guy usually has 99/K9s here but AQd, AJd, even KQs and obviously a chop are enough of a consideration that I'm seeing a showdown unless one of the people raises behind me, especially on a diamond.

[/ QUOTE ]

this sounds good to me except for the bolded part, I've never seen this type of move in a multiway pot with these. granted I haven't played that much poker (maybe 100K hands total?)

Jason are these stats all from full ring at 15/30? if they were 10/20 SH stats and he was stepping up, he'd actually be a much tougher opponent than his stats would indicate

Re: 15/30 AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3-betting the flop offers 12:1 on a call. QT and JT aren't going anywhere peeps.

Calling and raising the turn offers 8:1 and gets more money in against KQ etc when the wayyyyyyyy averaggro dude has that.

I hate calling down here but I do it. That guy usually has 99/K9s here but AQd, AJd, even KQs and obviously a chop are enough of a consideration that I'm seeing a showdown unless one of the people raises behind me, especially on a diamond.

[/ QUOTE ]

this sounds good to me except for the bolded part, I've never seen this type of move in a multiway pot with these. granted I haven't played that much poker (maybe 100K hands total?)

Jason are these stats all from full ring at 15/30? if they were 10/20 SH stats and he was stepping up, he'd actually be a much tougher opponent than his stats would indicate

[/ QUOTE ]

They are mined 10/20 full-ring stats.

Re: 15/30 AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
3-betting the flop is terrible.

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It's not as good as waiting for the turn, but it's not "terrible".