Swing State prediction contest
 

Somebody was going to do this, so I figured it might as well be me.

These are the 19 states that are still in contention, according to RealClearPolitics. The electoral vote counts are included in parenthesis. RCP assumes that 149 electoral votes are solid for Kerry, and 191 for Bush, so if you're trying to engineer a result for your favorite candidate, you can work from there.

There will be no prize for the contest, however I'll be happy to tally the results once the outcomes are certified in each state. The contest will be scored as follows:

1. Number of states picked correctly
2. Number of states picked correctly, weighted by Electoral votes
3. +/- differential in overall Electoral Vote prediction
4. +/- differential in Popular Vote predicton

Entries must be submitted by Sunday at 5 PM Central Time or I won't count them. Have fun.

AR (6)
CO (9)
IA (7)
FL (27)
HI (4)
ME (4)
MN (10)
MI (17)
MO (11)
NH (4)
NJ (15)
NM (5)
NV (5)
OH (20)
OR (7)
PA (21)
WV (5)
WA (11)
WI (10)
Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place):
Electoral Result:

I've included my predictions below.

====

AR (6) - Kerry
CO (9) - Bush
IA (7) - Kerry
FL (27) - Bush
HI (4) - Kerry
ME (4) - Kerry
MN (10) - Kerry
MI (17) - Kerry
MO (11) - Bush
NH (4) - Kerry
NJ (15) - Kerry
NM (5) - Bush
NV (5) - Bush
OH (20) - Kerry
OR (7) - Kerry
PA (21) - Kerry
WV (5) - Bush
WA (11) - Kerry
WI (10) - Bush
Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +0.6
Electoral Result: Kerry 275, Bush 263.

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Bush
IA (7) Bush
FL (27) Bush
HI (4) Kerry
ME (4) Kerry
MN (10) Kerry
MI (17) Kerry
MO (11) Bush
NH (4) Kerry
NJ (15) Kerry
NM (5) Kerry
NV (5) Bush
OH (20) Bush
OR (7) Kerry
PA (21) Kerry
WV (5) Bush
WA (11) Kerry
WI (10) Bush
Bush 47.5% Kerry 47.3% (.2%)
Electoral Result:
Bush 291 Kerry 247

Flame on.

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Kerry
IA (7) Bush
FL (27) Bush
HI (4) Kerry
ME (4) Kerry
MN (10) Kerry
MI (17) Kerry
MO (11) Bush
NH (4) Kerry
NJ (15) Kerry
NM (5) Bush
NV (5) Bush
OH (20) Kerry
OR (7) Kerry
PA (21) Kerry
WV (5) Bush
WA (11) Kerry
WI (10) Kerry

Kerry 281
Bush 257
Bush by .1% in the popular vote

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR (6) - Kerry
CO (9) - Bush
IA (7) - Kerry
FL (27) - Kerry
HI (4) - Kerry
ME (4) - Kerry
MN (10) - Kerry
MI (17) - Kerry
MO (11) - Bush
NH (4) - Kerry
NJ (15) - Kerry
NM (5) - Bush
NV (5) - Bush
OH (20) - Kerry
OR (7) - Kerry
PA (21) - Kerry
WV (5) - Bush
WA (11) - Kerry
WI (10) - Kerry
Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +2.5
Electoral Result: Kerry 312, Bush 226.

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR B
CO B
IA B
FL B
HI K
ME K
MN K
MI K
MO B
NH B
NV B
OH B
OR K
PA K
WV B
WA K
WI B

Bush 295
Kerry 243

Popular vate +.6 Bush

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR (6) - Bush
CO (9) - Bush
IA (7) - Kerry
FL (27) - Bush
HI (4) - Kerry
ME (4) - Kerry
MN (10) - Bush
MI (17) - Kerry
MO (11) - Bush
NH (4) - Kerry
NJ (15) - Kerry
NM (5) - Bush
NV (5) - Bush
OH (20) - Kerry
OR (7) - Kerry
PA (21) - Kerry
WV (5) - Bush
WA (11) - Kerry
WI (10) - Kerry

Bush 269
Kerry 269

Popular Vote: Kerry +0.0

Edit: Does this seem THAT unrealistic?

Lori

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does this seem THAT unrealistic?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's gutsy to give MN to me at the same time giving WI to Kerry.

While you are all at it, how about a Senate prediction? Count Jeffords as a Democrat for this exercise. Current make-up in the Senate is Republican 51 to 49.

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

sadly the looks of ir right now is the bad guys look to gain a few seats in the senate

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

It's gutsy to give MN to me at the same time giving WI to Kerry.

Swap them over... same result [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Lori

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's gutsy to give MN to me at the same time giving WI to Kerry.

Swap them over... same result [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the way you had it. Some earlier predictors had Kerry picking up AR, which would be a bit of a surprise.

My surprise pick is that I will blind-side Kerry by picking up MI.

http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com.../mdf741916.jpg

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR (6) - Bush
CO (9) - Bush
IA (7) - Kerry
FL (27) - Bush
HI (4) - Kerry
ME (4) - Kerry
MN (10) - Kerry
MI (17) - Kerry
MO (11) - Bush
NH (4) - Kerry
NJ (15) - Kerry
NM (5) - Kerry
NV (5) - Bush
OH (20) - Kerry
OR (7) - Kerry
PA (21) - Kerry
WV (5) - Bush
WA (11) - Kerry
WI (10) - Kerry

Kerry + 1.1%
Kerry 284- Bush 254

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

My Prediction:
Kerry picks up NH
Bush picks up WI,IA,NM
Bush 296 Kerry 242
Senate GOP 52 seats

http://ncdweb.dyndns.org:9200/electoralprediction.jpg

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR (6)--Bush
CO (9)--Bush
IA (7)--Bush
FL (27)--Bush
HI (4) --Kerry
ME (4)--Kerry
MN (10)--Kerry
MI (17)--Kerry
MO (11)--Bush
NH (4)--Kerry
NJ (15)--Kerry
NM (5)--Bush
NV (5)--Bush
OH (20)--Bush
OR (7)--Kerry
PA (21)--Kerry
WV (5)--Bush
WA (11)--Kerry
WI (10)--Bush
Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Bush by 2.5%
Electoral Result: Bush wins 296-242

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Bush
IA (7) Bush
FL (27) Bush
HI (4) Kerry
ME (4) Kerry
MN (10) Kerry
MI (17) Kerry
MO (11) Bush
NH (4) Kerry
NJ (15) Kerry
NM (5) Bush
NV (5) Bush
OH (20) Kerry
OR (7) Kerry
PA (21) Kerry
WV (5) Bush
WA (11) Kerry
WI (10) Kerry

Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry by 1.5%

Electoral Result: (Kerry) 272 v. 266 (Conservative guesstimate - FL could go either way, IA a Kerry possibility as well.)

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

lorinda -

Another possibility (for a tie) - Bush carries OH and WI, but loses FL.

A tie is not out of the question.

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

from the Washington Post, predictions from pundits and politicos:

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-s...stalBall04.jpg

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR (6) - Bush
CO (9) - Bush
IA (7) - Kerry
FL (27) - Kerry
HI (4) - Kerry
ME (4) - Kerry
MN (10) - Kerry
MI (17) - Kerry
MO (11) - Bush
NH (4) - Kerry
NJ (15) - Kerry
NM (5) - Bush
NV (5) - Bush
OH (20) - Kerry
OR (7) - Kerry
PA (21) - Kerry
WV (5) - Bush
WA (11) - Kerry
WI (10) - Bush

Kerry 296
Bush 242

Popular Vote: Kerry +1.8

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

Bush
AR (6)
CO (9)
IA (7)
FL (27)
MO (11)
NM (5)
NV (5)
WV (5)



Kerry
HI (4)
ME (4)
MN (10)
MI (17)
NH (4)
NJ (15)
OH (20)
OR (7)
PA (21)
WA (11)
WI (10)

Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +1.0

Electoral Result: Kerry 272 Bush 266

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR (6) -- Bush
CO (9) -- Bush
IA (7) -- Bush
FL (27) -- Bush
HI (4) -- Kerry
ME (4) -- Kerry
MN (10) -- Kerry
MI (17) -- Kerry
MO (11) -- Bush
NH (4) -- Kerry
NJ (15) -- Kerry
NM (5) -- Bush
NV (5) -- Bush
OH (20) -- Kerry
OR (7) -- Kerry
PA (21) -- Kerry
WV (5) -- Bush
WA (11) -- Kerry
WI (10) -- Kerry
Popular Vote margin: Bush 1.2%
Electoral Result: Kerry 272-266

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR (6) - Bush
CO (9) - Bush
IA (7) - Kerry
FL (27) - Kerry
HI (4) - Kerry
ME (4) - Kerry
MN (10) - Kerry
MI (17) - Kerry
MO (11) - Bush
NH (4) - Kerry
NJ (15) - Kerry
NM (5) - Bush
NV (5) - Bush
OH (20) - Bush
OR (7) - Kerry
PA (21) - Kerry
WV (5) - Bush
WA (11) - Kerry
WI (10) - Kerry

Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +0.9
Electoral Result: Kerry 286, Bush 252.

D.

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Bush
IA (7) Kerry
FL (27)Kerry
HI (4) Kerry
ME (4) Kerry
MN (10)Kerry
MI (17)Kerry
MO (11)Bush
NH (4) Kerry
NJ (15)Kerry
NM (5) Kerry
NV (5) Bush
OH (20)Kerry
OR (7) Kerry
PA (21)Kerry
WV (5) Bush
WA (11)Kerry
WI (10)Kerry

Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +0.9
Electoral Result: Kerry 311 Bush 227

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Bush
IA (7) Kerry
FL (27) Kerry
HI (4) Kerry
ME (4) Kerry
MN (10) Kerry
MI (17) Kerry
MO (11) Bush
NH (4) Kerry
NJ (15) Kerry
NM (5) Kerry
NV (5) Kerry
OH (20) Kerry
OR (7) Kerry
PA (21) Kerry
WV (5) Bush
WA (11) Kerry
WI (10) Kerry
Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry 1.4 percent
EC results: Kerry 321 Bush 222
Side note: Turnout will be very high esp. within cities.

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

AR (6) - Bush
CO (9) - Bush
IA (7) - Kerry
FL (27) - Bush
HI (4) - Kerry
ME (4) - Kerry
MN (10) - Kerry
MI (17) - Kerry
MO (11) - Bush
NH (4) - Kerry
NJ (15) - Kerry
NM (5) - Bush
NV (5) - Bush
OH (20) - Kerry
OR (7) - Kerry
PA (21) - Kerry
WV (5) - Bush
WA (11) - Kerry
WI (10) - Kerry

Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +1.2
Electoral Result: Kerry 279, Bush 259.

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

I was thinking of doing the same. Here are my predictions:


AR (6) Bush
CO (9) Bush
IA (7) Kerry
FL (27) Kerry
HI (4) Kerry
ME (4) Kerry
MN (10) Kerry
MI (17) Kerry
MO (11) Bush
NH (4) Kerry
NJ (15) Kerry
NM (5) Kerry
NV (5) Bush
OH (20) Kerry
OR (7) Kerry
PA (21) Kerry
WV (5) Bush
WA (11) Kerry
WI (10) Bush
Popular Vote margin (to tenth of a decimal place): Kerry +1.2
Electoral Result: Kerry 301 Bush 237

Re: Swing State prediction contest
 

[ QUOTE ]
AR (6) Bush Correct
CO (9) Bush Correct
IA (7) Bush (not called but looking correct)
FL (27) Bush Correct
HI (4) Kerry (not called but looking correct)
ME (4) Kerry Correct
MN (10) Kerry (not called but looking correct)
MI (17) Kerry (not called but looking correct)
MO (11) Bush Correct
NH (4) Kerry Correct
NJ (15) Kerry Correct
NM (5) Kerry (not called but looking incorrect)
NV (5) Bush (not called but but looking incorrect, but very close)
OH (20) Bush Correct
OR (7) Kerry Correct
PA (21) Kerry Correct
WV (5) Bush Correct
WA (11) Kerry Correct
WI (10) Bush Not called (but looking Incorrect, but very close)

Bush 47.5% Kerry 47.3% (.2%)
Electoral Result:
Bush 291 Kerry 247

Flame on.

[/ QUOTE ]
Looking like 281-257 now. Do I win?

FINAL RESULTS
 

The winner is....

ctv1116.
He wins on the 4th tiebreaker, which as popular vote. He had an amazing 18/19 states, only missing Wisconsin. He also picked the popular vote within .5%.

Second place: El_Barto. Unfortunately, he did not give a popular vote score, and may have had a chance at beating ctv.

Non_Conformist got every state correct that he picked except NH and could have won, but failed to make picks for 3 states.
Final Rankings:
18 States
1) ctv1116
2) El_Barto
3) KnockWurst
4) LaggyLou
5) LinusKS

17 States
6) TomCollins
7) sam_h
8) goofball
9) David Steele

16 States
10) Peca
11) Lorinda

15 States
12) Nate tha' Great
13) SinCityGuy
14) AceHigh
15) Grey

14 States
16) Non_Conformist
17) Nepa
18) jdl22

It was fun. Congrats to the winners.