The perfect river card for me... (and my bluff) ?
 

No reads, this is pretty early in the stars 30+3 deepstack tourney.

After i'm min-raised on the turn, it's pretty clear there's no way i can win this pot at a showdown unless villain isn't very good, which i have noidea. I get the feeling he's raising a flush and not something like 2 pair or a set, but who knows. Comments on my river play? it's a low cost (relatively) attempt to win a big pot, but is it still chip spewing?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP1 (t11357)
Hero (t5545)
MP3 (t4430)
CO (t5610)
Button (t6188)
SB (t1990)
BB (t5810)
UTG (t9365)
UTG+1 (t4315)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls t30, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t120</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls t105, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t90.

Flop: (t390) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets t90</font>, Hero calls t90, SB folds.

Turn: (t570) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets t180</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t500</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t820</font>, Hero calls t320.

River: (t2210) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets t510</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1020</font>

Re: The perfect river card for me... (and my bluff) ?
 

I hate the turn raise. On the river, unless hes a complete donk, hes not going to fold the 500 on the river with such great looking odds. I really doubt you will fold a better hand out, or be called by a weaker one.

Re: The perfect river card for me... (and my bluff) ?
 

I don't think it is enough to take the pot against any club.
~Justin

Re: The perfect river card for me... (and my bluff) ?
 

At the time, I thought i may be able to fold a weak flush, but afterlooking at the odds that seems very unlikely. I think it is possible for me to fold a 2pair or a set though on this river (even though I said I didn't tink he was on thosehands).

But let's forget about odds. People aren't always thinking " I have to be right only 1 in 8 times." I was trying to portray the "I have the first or second nuts and you won't be right this time." I think I did a good job at doing that, but I can never be sure. Look at this hand history and take out the words Hero and my holecards. Does it really look like i'm playing JJ here? Or does it look like something very very scary?

Re: The perfect river card for me... (and my bluff) ?
 

It looks like something very very scary. I call with any club.

Re: The perfect river card for me... (and my bluff) ?
 

Fair enough. I guess my read was wrong and villain had a strong pair hand.

Re: The perfect river card for me... (and my bluff) ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Fair enough. I guess my read was wrong and villain had a strong pair hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a nice play against a specific kind of player. With no reads, though, it's pretty terrible.

Re: The perfect river card for me... (and my bluff) ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
After i'm min-raised on the turn, it's pretty clear there's no way i can win this pot at a showdown unless villain isn't very good, which i have noidea.

[/ QUOTE ]

So.... why didn't you fold?

Re: The perfect river card for me... (and my bluff) ?
 

You have no reads on this player, how do you know what hes thinking? And whether he knows standard pot odds?

Regardless, this river raise is awful.

Re: The perfect river card for me... (and my bluff) ?
 

[ QUOTE ]
But let's forget about odds. People aren't always thinking " I have to be right only 1 in 8 times." I was trying to portray the "I have the first or second nuts and you won't be right this time."

[/ QUOTE ]

I really like this concept. Often when we analyse a hand we focus on narrowing our opponent down to a range and lines like "against that range I'm at 1.8:1 so I have the pot odds to call...".

For a long while I concentrated far too hard on the cards in my hand and I feel I've improved my game by focusing more on my opponents hand and importantly how he perceives my hand (I realise that this simply a stage).

To paraphrase Gigabet "The ability to get your opponent to lay down the second best hand" (when you are holding rags) [is a key factor in tournament play]

Note: not sure I would have tried it in this instance though [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]