99 on a double paired board
 

Don't necessarily remember anything specific about the people involved in this hand..

how'd I do here? I planned on folding to a turn raise. Comments on all streets encouraged, particularly the river bet.. pretty thin, I think?

converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, MP2 calls.

River: (11.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

Re: 99 on a double paired board
 

Should take the free showdown. You'd be forcing out KK-TT with the river bet, but I'm not certain that pre-flop play indicates those hands. By the river, the pot is sufficiently big that MP2 calls with any sort of pair or bigger, so the river bet isn't for value or to win the pot.

I'd probably call the flop, and raise the turn for the best chance of taking the pot down, and evaluating the situation immediately. With a turn raise, if that doesn't take the pot, the situation has change and now the river bet might, and any KK-TT must be thinking about the pre-flop 3-bet.

Edit: Oh yeah...I'm new at this. So I'd appreciate it if other people constructively criticize my thoughts as well.

Re: 99 on a double paired board
 

[ QUOTE ]
You'd be forcing out KK-TT with the river bet

[/ QUOTE ]

seems to contradict

[ QUOTE ]
By the river, the pot is sufficiently big that MP2 calls with any sort of pair or bigger

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
KK-TT must be thinking about the pre-flop 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

they will NEVER fold here.

Euro: I really don't like the river bet.


Do you really think that he:

a) raises preflop
b) bets the flop
c) calls you on the river

with enough hands to be +EV?

What can he have to call with? 88 and 77 are the obvious hands. And you would miss a value bet.

BUT, I think TT-QQ are far more likely than 77 or 88 (most raise TT,JJ or QQ only some raise 77 or 88).

This all changes, of course, if he calls with king high. Then it is a value bet. BUT, does he bet king high on the flop? Seems like an odd thing to do, no?

I like the free showdown.

Re: 99 on a double paired board
 

Sorry, didn't convey what I was trying to say. What I meant to say was "You'd be trying to force out KK-TT". As for the second statement, what I meant about KK-TT thinking about the pre-flop 3-bet is that after a call on the flop and a raise on the turn with what essentially is a blank, MP1 will really consider hard about whether or not the hero is holding an ace. It just seems to me that it'd carry more weight that way than a raise on the flop. Doesn't the raise on the flop seem weak with paired Aces on the board?

After thinking about it some more, it still seems to me that a flop call and a turn raise solves all your problems.

Re: 99 on a double paired board
 

bump because I want some more opinions [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

come on, tell me just how bad this river bet is.

Re: 99 on a double paired board
 

Haven't read any other replies, but I'm thinking I would bet the river. Definately a very close decision though.

Villain's cold-call preflop is a little scary, but he has given you absolutely no reason to think your behind. I'm thinking you are going to see 66-88 more often than A-Q or a higher pocket pair.

Without a read, I think you have value to bet since villain has done nothing but call down.

-Shami

Re: 99 on a double paired board
 

thanks for your thoughts [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I figured this would be a somewhat interesting hand, but nobody else really seems to think so..

i agree about the river being close, I wonder who else does, though?

Re: 99 on a double paired board
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think that he:

a) raises preflop
b) bets the flop
c) calls you on the river

with enough hands to be +EV?


[/ QUOTE ]

One of us is definately mis-reading the hand. I hope its not me. Villain on river is MP2, the pre-flop and flop raiser is MP1, who folds on the turn to hero's re-raise.
-Shami

Re: 99 on a double paired board
 

i don't mind the river bet, it seems like MP2 is a massive calling station, as he never once showed strength or aggression. An A is definitely c/ring the turn, it looks like he has a PP from JJ-33, and in these low limits even a K high would call here sometimes.

Re: 99 on a double paired board
 

If MP2 was a massive calling station the river bet would be great. YOu can't tell that he is from looking at what he does in one hand. He could have a lot of different hands here. The value of this river bet is entirely opponent dependent. Without reads, you have to go by concentrations of different opponent types to know how likely it is that you're up against X type of player. If someone has a good system of doing that, please let me know. By feel I would say this river bet is marginally -EV, and would take the free card. I would be pleasantly surprised if anyone could make a convincing case either way though. If MP2 had raised preflop, the bet is certainly bad.