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-   -   Preflop LAGishness (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=110631)

The Ocho 08-07-2004 03:04 AM

Preflop LAGishness
 
Live 5-5 blinds.

I'm in CO with A8s, two limpers to me. I call. Button goes all in for 50 (he'd apparently didn't want to reload from a beat he'd taken an orbit earlier). Both limpers reluctantly call in front of me. I re-raise 200 more. Am I nuts? Is this play worth making here? Is it +EV? Will anybody ever respect my raises again?

Al_Capone_Junior 08-07-2004 03:09 PM

Re: Preflop LAGishness
 
If you fold, you DEFINITELY LOSE $5.

If you reraise, you are in the main pot with a hand that is almost certainly either a big dog or a close race with the raiser, not to mention anyone else that calls.

If there's a side pot you are almost certainly $$%^#$%^ up the A$$ real hard.

There is nothing wrong with just folding and losing $5 here.

al

The Ocho 08-08-2004 12:18 AM

Re: Preflop LAGishness
 
I realize folding is a safe play here. I don't have really anything invested in this pot.

However, I felt like a fold here would be a waste of a favorable opportunity. I was 90% sure that both the callers would fold to a re-raise here. Thus, I felt I could consider any money they put in the pot as dead money if I sacked up and moved on the pot. Even if they don't fold (very unlikely): I have position and the opportunity to outplay them for the side pot.

Considering the caller money in the pot as dead, I'm really making a mistake here if the all-in guy has aces. If the allin guy has KK or a better ace, the dead money is giving me the right price to call.

creedofhubris 08-08-2004 12:29 AM

Re: Preflop LAGishness
 
Well, I've made that move with hands as weak as AJ and 88.

You clearly can't just call here. However, you would almost never slowplay a big hand in the cutoff with two limpers (right?), so your opponents may realize what you're doing and come along. I'm a little worried in that they both coldcalled 50, so they may be willing to coldcall more.

Depends on your read.

Al_Capone_Junior 08-08-2004 12:38 PM

Re: Preflop LAGishness
 
I find it hard to believe that you are trying to justify your play as being a good one.

[ QUOTE ]
However, I felt like a fold here would be a waste of a favorable opportunity.

[/ QUOTE ]

A $50 raise faces your A8s when the blind is $5. Do you understand what it means when I say it's either a close race or you are a BIG dog? Big dog means you are a 70% or worse underdog. ALL he needs is A9 or a pair larger than 77 and you ARE that big of an underdog. There is virtually NOTHING he could have that makes you anything more than a VERY SLIGHT favorite. The rest of the time, you are going to be in a very close race. This means it is a LOSING call to play here.

[ QUOTE ]
Thus, I felt I could consider any money they put in the pot as dead money if I sacked up and moved on the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who is it exactly that put in the dead money here?

[ QUOTE ]
Even if they don't fold (very unlikely): I have position and the opportunity to outplay them for the side pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

First off, how big are the stacks? You've already put in $250. How much is left to play for?

Next, let's review the potential side pot situation. When you make a collosally large bet like you did here, you will only be called by a better hand, thus there is NO value whatsoever other than NEGATIVE EV in making such a large bet with such a weak hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Considering the caller money in the pot as dead, I'm really making a mistake here if the all-in guy has aces. If the allin guy has KK or a better ace, the dead money is giving me the right price to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This part baffled me the most. How much dead money do you think you need to take on KK with A8 or a better ace with A8 and have a +EV? You will be break even at best here. Let's look at some sims from twodimes.net...

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=438447
pokenum -h as 8s - kc kh
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 8s 548832 32.05 1157419 67.59 6053 0.35 0.322
Kc Kh 1157419 67.59 548832 32.05 6053 0.35 0.678

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=118563
pokenum -h as 8s - ac kh
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 8s 488110 28.51 1147813 67.03 76381 4.46 0.307
Ac Kh 1147813 67.03 488110 28.51 76381 4.46 0.693

Notice these don't even consider the other players in the hand, all of whom take more equity away from you.

Sorry to be so harsh, but you are VERY mixed up here and I am trying to help.

al

Ray Zee 08-08-2004 01:48 PM

Re: Preflop LAGishness
 
fold, call raise, all three are okay as you are last to act now.
al showed how a fold is right. now someone show how the other two can be correct. its not a math thingy.

The Ocho 08-08-2004 05:17 PM

Re: Preflop LAGishness
 
Thanks for the response. I didn't think it was harsh at all. I'm here to learn, not be coddled like a grade schooler in art class.

Anyways, both hands you ran through twodimes had me at about a 7-3 dog. Yes, that blows. I KNOW I'm very likely a huge dog against the button and best case I'm slight fav. No confusion on my part there. However, in this particular case I'm VERY sure that the limpers will both fold to my raise here. I've been trucking them both for the whole session, and neither has even thought about putting up any serious resistance. I'm pretty sure they know exactly what I'm up to with the raise, but they don't want to tangle with me anyways. Also, they would have hit the pot for a raise if they really had any sort of hand that was much better than mine (they both had loose opening raise standards and were not tricky pre-flop at all). They both have ~800 behind and I have them covered easily.

All these factors led me to believe that they would abandon their 50 bucks to the pot. This the pseudo-"dead" money I referred to. So, if I blast them out of the pot, I am getting 3-1 on my "call." Since I'm probably a 7-3 dog and getting 3-1 from the pot, I'm getting an overlay.

Again, I realize that this overlay is a seemingly tenous one, but given my read on the situation and my weak opponents, I felt like it was definitely there.

This argument probably won't be good enough for Ray Zee, but that's why he's Ray Zee and I'm nearly broke.

Doctor Teller 08-08-2004 08:04 PM

Re: Preflop LAGishness
 
[ QUOTE ]
fold, call raise, all three are okay as you are last to act now.
al showed how a fold is right. now someone show how the other two can be correct. its not a math thingy.

[/ QUOTE ]

A call can be correct if you want to risk getting more money in a side pot off a great flop than the money risked pre-flop to the all-in bet.

Basically, it's a strategy of hoping to land a great hand on the flop, and making more in the side pot against the other 2 callers than the $50 invested against the all-in player.

More risk, but greater value if everything plays out right.

Raising is a good play also, in my opinion, due to the fact the all-in raiser lost a big pot earlier, and could potentially be steaming, waiting to reload his stack. Taking advantage of that knowledge is reason enough to isolate him with a decent hand.

Ray Zee 08-08-2004 08:13 PM

Re: Preflop LAGishness
 
the reason for the call is simple to me but maybe is more advanced or goes by others in the way they approach the game. i will be disappointed if no one gets it.

your half right on the raise

turnipmonster 08-08-2004 08:29 PM

Re: Preflop LAGishness
 
what the hell I'll take a shot.

flat calling gives you a side pot with no money in it. no reasonable player will bluff into a dry side pot, so odds are no one will bet into you unless they are betting for value. in position this means you probably get lots of free cards at minimal risk.

--turnipmonster


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