KQ, big pot
 

Taggy player with like 35ASB opens in the CO, I 3bet KcQs in the SB, 32/~20 call in the BB, Taggy caps.

Flop Qc4d9h

I check, BB checks, pfr Bets, I raise, should I just call to give BB a chance of making some stupid calls and to lose less when I´m behind the capper?
BB folds, capper 3bets, I call.
The capper is usually fairly weak and doesn´t spew too much..I haven´t played with him that much though.

Turn 7s, I check-call.

River As, I bet, he calls. Should I check-fold here ?

Should I have done something completely different from the start ?

Re: KQ, big pot
 

i like the flop cr you have to defend you hand


river i don't know bet/folding might be good if he will call with worse Q and maybee some pp that he otherwise would have checked behind

Re: KQ, big pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
i like the flop cr you have to defend you hand


river i don't know bet/folding might be good if he will call with worse Q and maybee some pp that he otherwise would have checked behind

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt he is capping here preflop with a worse Q given this info from the OP:

[ QUOTE ]
The capper is usually fairly weak and doesn´t spew too much..I haven´t played with him that much though.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: KQ, big pot
 

I would check/fold the river. I am not sure that the tag is capping with anything we can possible beat when the A comes on the river. (not to mention he 3bet the flop)

It looks like he had KK and called the river b/c the A scared him.

Re: KQ, big pot
 

I like every street. I think your flop checkraise looks weak to the TAG and he could easily 3-bet the flop with TT or JJ, looking to bet the turn and take a free showdown.

The river is interesting. Let's give him a range:
99-AA, AQ

assume:

1) villain checks behind with TT and JJ 100% of the time
2) villain checks behind with KK 25% of the time
3) villain calls a river bet with TT, JJ, KK 100% of the time
4) villain bets / raises AQ, QQ, AA, and 99 100% of the time

Number of combinations for villain's holdings:

AA (3), 3/28 = 0.107
KK (3), 0.107
QQ (1), 0.036
JJ (6), 0.214
TT (6), 0.214
99 (3), 0.107
AQ (6), 0.214

total combinations: 28

Bet/Fold

EV = (+1BB) * [0.214 + 0.214] + (-1BB) * [1 - 2 * 0.214]
<font color="blue">EV = -0.144 BB</font>

Check/Call

EV = (-1BB) * [0.214 + 0.107 + 0.036 + 0.107 + 0.25*0.107]
<font color="blue">EV = -0.491 BB</font>

Bet/Fold is the winner.

Re: KQ, big pot
 

Maybe its too early, but why is AQ in this range but AK isn't?

EDIT: Because of the action, duh.

Re: KQ, big pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would check/fold the river. I am not sure that the tag is capping with anything we can possible beat when the A comes on the river. (not to mention he 3bet the flop)

It looks like he had KK and called the river b/c the A scared him.

[/ QUOTE ]

This might be a better option if we are very certain villain checks behind with JJ / TT. Given my analysis above, this would have EV = 0 (better than above) if we are 100% sure he checks behind. If we think he bets JJ / TT even a small portion of the time then we risk giving up the entire pot, hugely -EV.

Re: KQ, big pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe its too early, but why is AQ in this range but AK isn't?

EDIT: Because of the action, duh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, although I just realized I missed A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], which should probably be included.

Re: KQ, big pot
 

I like everything until the river, where I either check/fold or check/call, read dependant. River can save you 1 BB sometimes when you are behind &amp; he has KK but wusses out. Usually I just pay off here, but I definately leak paying off too much.

Re: KQ, big pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
This might be a better option if we are very certain villain checks behind with JJ / TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villian is willing to cap pf and 3bet the flop with TT or JJ I'm not sure he is checking behind on the turn. But how often is villian 3betting this flop w/ JJ or TT?