AK TPTK vs Pressure
 

Live 10/20 casino game. Villain has been talkative, drinking, and has shown down at least 3 bluffs in the first 90 min at the table. At least one each of the "no hand, no draw bet/raise all streets" and the "no hand, no draw c/r turn" varieties.

I have a pretty tight image at the table (mostly b/c I've been very card dead), and I get AKo UTG+1.

Fold to me, I raise, all fold to villain in BB, who calls.

Flop is K-10-5 rainbow.

Villain checks, hero bets, villain calls.

Turn is Q, still rainbow.

Villain checks, hero bets, villain raises, hero 3-bets, villain calls.

River is a 7.

Villain bets. Hero?

What's the best line here. Hero's BB, and so could have any hand. Does he have 2 pair? Is it another bluff? So, I don't have a fold in me here, but is the best line call or raise?

Also, if you disagree w/ my turn 3-bet, based on my read, please let me know.

Thanks!

Re: AK TPTK vs Pressure
 

A'ight:

Let's look at villain's play on the turn:

He check-raised, which could basically mean anything: a pure bluff, a K, a hand that's better than yours, and so on. All that this tells us is he has some two cards.

He then called your three-bet out of position. This is a meaningful thing. If he was on a total bluff here, he may well have folded, though often (particularly in live games) a villain might call here to save face or with hopes of hitting some miracle that may no even exist. I think the odds that he's purely bluffing do slightly go down because he calls here though. With the board texture, though, a semi-bluff is very possible, as this type of player might well have a J and check-raise.

Also, though, he didn't cap. This is meaningful. If he had a total monster, he'd probably cap; players like this know that an advantage of playing crazy is they get paid off on big hands. So I don't think you're up against a set or big two pair at this point. He could have a hand like QT, but often this type of villain will think "oh great, I've cracked his AA, let's go to town."

River: The river is a blank. If villain was semi-bluffing the turn, he didn't get there. A 7 only improved hands like exactly K7 and Q7. So usually, if you were ahead on the turn, you are still ahead now.

Then villain bets. This could be a last-ditch attempt to take down the pot with his missed semi-bluff. It could be a "oh, I still have top pair I should bet" bet. Rarely it means he's improved.

Since this type of opponent is probably afraid of folding, I think you'll often get paid by hands like KJ, QJ, and so on here.

I think we can find a raise here. It's damn thin, but I think it's there. Call a three-bet. We're risking two to win a little more than 1 (villain might three-bet a worse hand), but I think we really should exploit this dude as his turn/river line don't seem to indicate a monster.

Re: AK TPTK vs Pressure
 

bumpin' for additional comments

Re: AK TPTK vs Pressure
 

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bumpin' for additional comments

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I don't think there's much else that needs to be said.

Re: AK TPTK vs Pressure
 

First of all, I agree with your post.

Secondly, I don't know when this happened, but congrats, you deserve it.
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