JJ
 

Am I nuts for wanting to fold this?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero ?

Re: JJ
 

I certainly wouldnt let this go yet. It is unlikely you are looking at a made straight already. SB probably has 86 or something along those lines, whereas the other two may have clubs or a lone 4 or 8. I'd call here and pop a good turn. If a bad card comes and there is a bet and a call I think you are safe folding.

Re: JJ
 

I don't think you are nuts, but you have to have enough equity to continue. I think a reasonable chance you are behind a straight/two pair/set now, but most likely not. Bad cards on the turn...3,4,8,9,A, [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], which is like 24 cards or something. I'd at least call and see what comes off on the turn.

Re: JJ
 

I think your somewhat right QTip. This hand is screaming of reverse implied odds.

The pot is big though, I think you could peel this flop and then continue (raise) on a safe turn?

Re: JJ
 

What is a good turn in this situation? Any overcard, club, 8, 9, or 4 is going to be scary. that's like, 30 cards. Also, there are three people behind hero, and hero cannot protect against any draw. I am really not sure what the right play is here, but seeing the turn against 6 people is really dangerous.

Re: JJ
 

Ooo yeah forgot about all those people behind hero. Folding looks much better now.

Re: JJ
 

Qtip,

What would Nate do?

Re: JJ
 

I also missed all of the people behind. Now I definitely dont think you are crazy since it seems like a raise or fold situation. I really dont like any of my options. I dont like you'd be losing much, if anything by folding here.

Re: JJ
 

You really aren't ging to get anybody to fold by raising so its probably better to call and wait for a safe turn to raise to protect your hand.

EDIT: Actually there are 3 more to act . . . and with so many callers they are going to be correct to raise any draw. I would fold this hand.

Re: JJ
 

If you've been running anything like I've been running at the 2/4 game over the last few weeks - I TOTALLY UNDERSTAND!

but - I still don't fold. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
Qtip,

What would Nate do?

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I'm missing something.

Re: JJ
 

no you are probably not. i just threw out a semi-vague reference that does not really pertain to discussion of the hand. you posted the 77 link the other day by Nate tha' Great. it is not a good comparison as the entire point of his post is about loose flop calls and some other considerations which have nothing to do with this hand or the fact that you will be outdrawn a reasonable amount of times given this board. i just think he was one of the more prolific posters and as i have seen you reference him a couple of times i think you may feel the same. so i was saying, do you think he would fold here? i understand it is a marginal spot to be in given the draws out to get you, but i like to get money in while i am ahead but i think you are very likely best here. i think you should see the turn. just keep in mind the marginality of your hand and its vulnerability and play it as such. i would not usually give up on this flop, though. you don't have to go to the river, but damn bets are cheap on the flop. i would say raise to protect but hell the guys behind you called two cold pf, they may call again and the pot is so bloated you are going to the river and having to pay off. nice point but i peel here and look for a chance to protect on the turn if possible, and if not you can laydown then. it just seems you are giving up alot folding big PP's when people are likely drawing. when running good, bricks fall of and YHIG, when running bad every draw comes in. that's how it works.

Re: JJ
 

Although there are a multitude of scare cards that can hit on the turn, we need to raise here. It is very likely that we still have the best hand, and there are a lot of hands that we want to fold behind us. The pot is very big, and although many hands would be correct to call two cold behind us... lets give them a chance to make a mistake and fold. It will be easy to get away from the hand for one big bet if many of the worse scare cards hit. So lets get rid of some overcards and maybe some gutshots/pairs and see what the turn brings.

Re: JJ
 

I'm tempted to raise this, only because calling and folding don't seem right...

Re: JJ
 

Call, fold &gt; raise. I think folding is correct but I'm still doing some math. cf. p. 61 of TOP.

Re: JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm tempted to raise this, only because calling and folding don't seem right...

[/ QUOTE ]
Raising seems easily the worst of the three options. My gut says call, but I can see a fold.

Re: JJ
 

I think you're going to loose this hand more than half the time, but I think the size of the pot makes up for that. I think the pot size makes a fold wrong, you probably still have more equitiy than any player currently drawing.

I think the choice is between raising now, or calling and raising a safe turn.

Raising now, you'll make it about 9 to 1 (taking into account rake) for the next three callers, at least making it marginally incorrect for a gutshot to call.

In decending order any 8, 4, club, or overcard to a jack is relatively scary.

I'd probably be tempted to do this:

Call the flop. I don't think you'll knock anyone out here with a raise. A late position raise will very often be a drawing hand. Call the raise if it comes. On the turn raise any safe card, probably raise even if it's an overcard to your jacks.

Some questions
 

No reads on players, especially those behind you? What is your table image? How long have you played at this table and how have you been running?

If my image was new or good, I raise to test where I am at half price before the turn card. If I get 3 bet, now I give real serious thought to folding.

On the other hand I played JJ recently and had KQx flopped against me and an A on the river only to find that all 3 against me drawing to flushes or playing other really stupid cards. I bet into the KQx from an early position but chickened out and checked on the A river card. I was surprised to find that I won at showdown.

The current and potential size of the pot suggests that I stay and raise to test where I am and I want to find out before the turn at 1/2 price. I raise.

Re: JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're going to loose this hand more than half the time, but I think the size of the pot makes up for that. I think the pot size makes a fold wrong, you probably still have more equitiy than any player currently drawing.

[/ QUOTE ]

A board like this is rarely going to make it to showdown with only one bet put in on each street. The pot is large but on average our effective odds are no good.

Re: JJ
 

Raise this one. Its the cheapest way to find out where you are at. Anyone with 2 pair or better is 3 betting here. Evem a flopped str8 will 3 bet considering there are 2 callers chasing.

Re: JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is screaming of reverse implied odds.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: JJ
 

I would raise the flop thinking he is betting his draw or top pair. If he plays back you, he probably flopped it and you can fold confidently.

Re: JJ
 

What will a call do? Ok he bets the turn, now what you just wasted a bet. Fold or raise. With this board any of the players will 3 bet on the flop with 2 pair+ and then you can get away cheap. Calling does nothing, no information. If I had a 2 pair or better Id keep betiing. Id bet again on the turn figuring the PF raiser had AK or AQ with the ace of clubs maybe. Not JJ or better. If I did get raised then I might suspect the big pair especially if I had top 2. No way that player is laying down.

Re: JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
Raise this one. Its the cheapest way to find out where you are at. Anyone with 2 pair or better is 3 betting here. Evem a flopped str8 will 3 bet considering there are 2 callers chasing.

[/ QUOTE ]

And any strong draw will pump the pot bloating it to the point that we can't fold. Either way, if we raise and get 3-bet the pot will be so large that we have to see at least the river. So, in what way did that information help you get away from your hand and save bets? Moreover raising the flop does very little to protect our hand and we'd be putting bets in the pot when our equity edge is small if existant at all. Raising the flop is terrible.

Re: JJ
 

And how will putting in 2 BB on the turn help? You think anyone of the fish are laying down then? Also the only draw pumpin it up there is A club draw and how often will any of these 2 have Ax of clubs on this board. For all they know you have AK clubs.

What hands do you think they will put you on on the turn when you raise? If I had top 2 I would put you on top set. Ahhh maybe Im giving the fish too much credit.

If they are weak passive players and you are seeing the showdown anyways and these are the type of players that with top 2 can be afraid and just call the turn raise and check the river then I can see a turn raise.

I think only the A high club draw is raising here, probably KQ clubs.

Re: JJ
 

I suggest Jason, that you see the world through the eyes of a good player. If everyone sitting at this table was your quality of player, your advice would be right on. However, since we have no information to suggest that our opponents are other than average at best, and some are likely to make bad decisions bad on our raise, I say raise the flop unless I know that I am sitting with dangerous opponents who are in this hand.

Re: JJ
 

Hey Qtip, if you saw the turn, could you post it? I think the action there would be really interesting too.

And I would fold this, I can only think of 7 or 8 turn cards I would actually like and if there's a couple LAGs in the pot this could get real expensive.

Re: JJ
 

This is an ugly board but I'm calling one here.

Rob

Re: JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you're going to loose this hand more than half the time, but I think the size of the pot makes up for that. I think the pot size makes a fold wrong, you probably still have more equitiy than any player currently drawing.

[/ QUOTE ]

A board like this is rarely going to make it to showdown with only one bet put in on each street. The pot is large but on average our effective odds are no good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you like folding the flop then? I'm starting to wonder if doing a ram and jam on a draw heavy board is actually a leak of mine.

Re: JJ
 

Unfortunately, the type of "bad decision" these guys are going to make is to call too much. What we have to do is dodge over half the deck twice - if we're still good now, which is by no means certain. Further, everyone has correct odds to call, at least versus our holding. Our equity has to be pretty darned low, but if the players behind us are passive I can see peeling, hoping to raise a red deuce or something on the turn, just b/c the pot is so big.

Re: JJ
 

Absolutely agreed. You need to be aggressive. If there is more than draws you will find out immediately.

Re: JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]

Do you like folding the flop then? I'm starting to wonder if doing a ram and jam on a draw heavy board is actually a leak of mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Ramming and jamming" a flop like this against this many people is flat-out foolish. If you are instead raising looking to knock people out (assuming position/pot size make this possible), then yes. But just going off here sucks, this is a wait for the turn at best I think, and possibly a fold.

Re: JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]

I think only the A high club draw is raising here, probably KQ clubs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, what about an OESD? Or an OESD + a pair? Or two overcards to a gutshot? Or a plethora of possible made straights/two pair/set hands that already have us clobbered? Obviously it is very player-dependent as to whether someone is going to raise these hands or not, but they are all perfectly plausible raises behind us. And the pot just gets bigger and bigger, and we're in a bad place.

Re: JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]

Do you like folding the flop then?

[/ QUOTE ]

I won't fault anyone who wants to fold the flop. I think it's close but seeing the turn and raising if it's safe is okay.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm starting to wonder if doing a ram and jam on a draw heavy board is actually a leak of mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a huge multiway pot on a draw heavy board I would not ever ram and jam in a spot like this where my equity on each bet is fairly low.

Re: JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
Absolutely agreed. You need to be aggressive. If there is more than draws you will find out immediately.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? How does this help? Why would you put bets in when you don't have equity advantage or if you do it's small and will change dramatically on the turn?

Re: JJ
 

yeah I would think if you get in a raising war on the flop you are losing money each time you hit raise. you would either be against a pair and straight draw, flush draw, made 2 pair, set, or straight, not to mention the other hands in there gambooling away which are all taking money from you - you have the weak made hand here, so you have to dodge the whole field, while if the best draw hits he wins.

I think you do need to see one more card though, this pot is ginormous and playeres might call behind you with very little, making your odds better. of course they might raise which sucks as well. nevertheless, I can't fold just yet

Re: JJ
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Absolutely agreed. You need to be aggressive. If there is more than draws you will find out immediately.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? How does this help? Why would you put bets in when you don't have equity advantage or if you do it's small and will change dramatically on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

also, say you do get three bet, why does this rule out draws?

Re: JJ
 

Ugh I'm not folding yet, but I would like to see a turn cheap. If it is something ugly I can get out of dodge and hopefully a raise can be found if a blank hits. The fact that we have a bet and 2 calls to us just isn't enough to warrent a fold here IMO. People are calling with all types of garbage and I would hate to give this up with both decent equity and outs to a better hand. A big part of calling here is the fact that we can spike a jack piece while getting good odds (not to mention that our hand will be good a fair amount of the time).

Re: JJ
 

Raising here seems like throwing money away for anyone saying to raise. It's a straight two-toned board with everyone and their brother still holding hole cards.

I'd peel but folding probably isn't horrible.

I did a quick pokerstove and you've got about 15% equity. Considering a bet and two calls already probably a hair less even. I'd say a majority of the time someone will raise behind you. That's really what makes it close. But I'd peel and make a turn decision...and I don't think I have to pay 3 bets to see the turn (or not see the turn) that often. Sometimes I see if for one.

But really, raising here sucks.

Re: JJ
 

As others have said, raising here would be pretty terrible. Try counting how many turn cards you wouldn't like to see... or even put some ranges into pokerstove, our equity sucks.

I think the pot is too big to fold, but I doubt calling is a ton better than folding.