Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

Second hour of the Paradise 75K rebuy. I haven't done all that much here except for one or two hands I've played TAG and not shown down.

UTG is a mediocre to decent player trying to play well. UTG+1 is donkish. CO is good and plays multiple sites - no read on the caller.

Now that you have this info, put everyone on a range and tell me how I played it.

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (10 handed) wacki's version of bison

CO (t6265)
Button (t21975)
SB (t6400)
BB (t29615)
UTG (t12800)
UTG+1 (t6997)
UTG+2 (t8230)
Hero (t15253)
MP2 (t10940)
MP3 (t9525)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of t200. BB posts a blind of t400.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t800</font>, UTG+1 calls t800, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t800, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t6240</font>, Button calls t6240, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t15228</font>

edit: converter put in the SB but not the BB for some reason

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

first - i would have re-raised to isolate UTG and UTG+1, particularly since you don't respect their play ... don't understand the smooth-call at all with so many players behind yet to act.

once the play develops as you've described and using your reads, i'd put CO on a relatively wide range of hands (medium-high suited connectors, any pair, broadway med-to-big Aces) since the only player he'd really fear playing back at him would be the original raiser (since each successive caller is likely a weaker and weaker hand).

the scary player is the button who just cold called 1/3 of his stack. he's either a complete donk or waiting/hoping for UTG or anyone else to re-raise so he can get his AA in to as big of a pot as possible.

i don't like pushing AKo here after all this action while the button has me covered. if i had the button covered, i'd push.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

UTG: 88+ AJo+ ATs+
UTG+1: Any pair, lots of broadway hands, suited cards.
Hero's first call: I like it, reraise puts us in an awkward spot when we miss the flop, and i'd rather just avoid it and add some deception to our hand.
CO:88+, AJs+, AQo+
Button: Bleh.. that sucks. Maybe TT+ AQs+ AKo+
Hero's push: A call would be real bad, a push might isolate... i dunno. You said you had no read on the button, but i think he's probably gonna call you. I don't know what i think of this, but this is probably what i would do too.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

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Hero's first call: I like it, reraise puts us in an awkward spot when we miss the flop, and i'd rather just avoid it and add some deception to our hand.

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Hero's push: A call would be real bad, a push might isolate... i dunno. You said you had no read on the button, but i think he's probably gonna call you. I don't know what i think of this, but this is probably what i would do too.

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i don't understand why you'd call with players behind you because you're want to avoid being in an awkward spot but push after an all-in and a huge smooth-call.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

Come on, an A3o PF hand gets 27 replies because a girl posted it and this one's at 3? Bump [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

UTG: 99+, ATs+, AJo+
UTG+1: Any pocket pair, Axs, suited connectors down to 56s
CO: Any pocket pair, suited broadways, AQ+
Button: Yech. TT+, AQs+, AK.

I'd probably re-raise the first time around to t2500-3000. (I don't feel like doing the math, but enough to price out the original raiser if he doesn't love his hand.)

With no read on the button, the second time around I...I guess play it the same way you did. I don't think he's folding, and unless you have a stone-cold read that he's on AA or KK, you can't fold.

I was trying to decide if calling, and then pushing any flop would be a viable option, but I guess that would only get called by hands that beat you if you miss the flop, and would fold out QQ or JJ if you hit it. So scratch that.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

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Come on, an A3o PF hand gets 27 replies because a girl posted it and this one's at 3? Bump [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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don't look at me - i did my part here ...

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

I hate your reraise, dump the hand next time.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hate your reraise, dump the hand next time.

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Are you that sure someone is on AA or KK? The call does look make it seem like a possibility, but with all that money in the middle...

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

I have to agree that smooth calling instead of reraising w/ so many left to act is just asking for trouble because if you do miss the flop, you have zero FE, and are forced into making an ill advised push or hemmorage $$ on susbsequent streets.

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Hero's first call: I like it, reraise puts us in an awkward spot when we miss the flop, and i'd rather just avoid it and add some deception to our hand.

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Hero's push: A call would be real bad, a push might isolate... i dunno. You said you had no read on the button, but i think he's probably gonna call you. I don't know what i think of this, but this is probably what i would do too.

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i don't understand why you'd call with players behind you because you're want to avoid being in an awkward spot but push after an all-in and a huge smooth-call.

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Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

not shoving here is wrong.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

at first glance, i thought a squeeze play might would be good b/c of 'defining your hand' and all that. however, just on instict, i feel like if you do that, you'll get at least 1 caller. so now you take a flop, albeit in position, with a pot that's around 7k and a stack that's around 11k. Not necessarily an ideal situation to be in. you also open yourself up to a stop-n-go of sorts and i hate putting in 1/4 of my stack just to have to fold the flop when i miss.

so after that, i thought i liked a call the best. i probably still do. the way the hand played out, i would have to think about dumping it and only because the button called and you don't have a read on him. readless, i have to assume that after an UTG raise, 2 callers, and a push on top of all of that, he would need 1 of 2 hands to flat call this. utg and utg+1 folding helps (and in hindsight (and ignoring the push and call), maybe a squeeze play would have worked) but I still think it's too likely that your AK is dominated.

one other thought that i had is a simple pre-flop push the first time action is to you. i understand this isn't a $5.50 where AJ and KQ will call you, but with all the dead money in the pot, maybe it isn't horrible...? i still like the call better though. interesting hand.

edit to say: the 2nd time action gets to you, you only have t800 of a t15k stack invested. so getting away leaves you in about the same shape as if you had just folded some random hand PF.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

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I hate your reraise, dump the hand next time.

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Are you that sure someone is on AA or KK? The call does look make it seem like a possibility, but with all that money in the middle...

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i think the button almost never folds here. i think he has exactly AQ once in a while, and less than AQ rarely.

it's hard to know what the CO has. i know that i would not try to make this big squeeze play with a strong hand. i'm not getting cute with 67s very often - it's almost always AQ+ / 99+, and usually AK / JJ+. but i recognize it wouldn't be a totally crazy play for him to have 67s, so hero has some chance of having 33%+ equity.

Ks Ac 551161 40.21 783903 57.19 35690 2.60 0.415
Ad Qh 274700 20.04 1060364 77.36 35690 2.60 0.213
7h 6h 509203 37.15 857723 62.57 3828 0.28 0.372

this, i think, is very unlikely though.

more likely is that both have QQ-, which is good but not great.

Ks Ac 499339 36.43 867148 63.26 4267 0.31 0.365
Qd Qh 626101 45.68 740386 54.01 4267 0.31 0.458
Td Th 241047 17.58 1125440 82.10 4267 0.31 0.177

it's moderately better to push against these hands than fold, but not by much.

against AQ and TT:

Ks Ac 464795 33.91 887112 64.72 18847 1.37 0.345
Ad Qh 274958 20.06 1076949 78.57 18847 1.37 0.207
Td Th 612154 44.66 754390 55.03 4210 0.31 0.448

here you're in ok shape for the main pot. if TT is the bigger stack, you're in kinda bad shape for the side (one A is killed), but if it's AQ, then you're in great shape.

AK v KK v QQ is very bad regardless of who has which hand (two K's are dead if you're "racing" with the deeper QQ guy).

Ks Ac 344965 25.17 1017209 74.21 8580 0.63 0.254
Qd Qh 244851 17.86 1120235 81.72 5668 0.41 0.180
Kd Kh 772358 56.35 589816 43.03 8580 0.63 0.566

and i don't even need to mention if one has AA.

there is, however, 4.3k in dead money in the middle (assuming no antes). that's about the only redeeming feature of this push. but i think that the button is going to KK/AA quite frequently, so i have to fold. you're not getting your money in that great unless no one has a pair (or if button has AQ- you're in pretty good shape) and you're getting in horrible if button has the likely AA.

the first cold call is fine. you don't really want to get a-i preflop for 65x bb's with utg.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

I dont mind the smooth call to the UTG raise. Buttons range is prob around 99-JJ, A10s+ AJo+. I feel the pot is very large and you have a premium holding. I could see CO holding a middle PP hoping everyone would fold or at best he was up against a race. For this reason I think your push is fine. By flat calling the 6k it is very likley Button has some of the same outs. But say he has AQ, you want to get all his money out there as well so if we dont hit we still profit vs losing 6k to a medium pair if me miss.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

I think UTG is out of the hand by the time action is on hero.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

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the first cold call is fine. you don't really want to get a-i preflop for 65x bb's with utg.

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You don't have to get all-in. Raise to 2500-3000.

The problem with the smooth call is that you create a situation in which players in LP may come over the top with marginal holdings. The initial push could easily be a steal of sorts (and a pretty good play if he's got any kind of hand), and it is possible because we've done nothing to force him to define his hand. Right now he's thinking "I've got t6000, there's a ton of money in the pot, and other than the original raiser, nobody's shown any strength. I'm pushing my 99." Re-raise, and it will keep you out of this situation. If he pushes over the top of a re-raise, and then THAT bet is called, you have a better idea where you stand.

Another reason I don't like the smooth call is that with one other player already calling, you're quite possibly looking at even more players coming along thanks to pot odds. While it allows you to get away from a missed flop more cheaply, you essentially need to hit two-pair or beter to bet with much confidence. If the flop comes Axx, and there is a lot of action in front, how happy are you?

And another poster said that folding here is okay, since you've only invested t800. No, no, no. It doesn't matter if you, the button, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster put those chips in the pot. Do you see why?

That said, I'm beginning to see the logic behind folding. I do smell a lot of dead outs in the folded hands. But, boy would I be unhappy to see 99 and JJ.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

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the first cold call is fine. you don't really want to get a-i preflop for 65x bb's with utg.

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You don't have to get all-in. Raise to 2500-3000.


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i guess what i should've said was that i didn't like the idea of getting ai for that much and i also didn't like the idea of folding to TT-QQ's reraise. on the plus side, based on the read, utg will likely fold and fishy utg will likely call. i still think calling is a little better though.

[ QUOTE ]


The problem with the smooth call is that you create a situation in which players in LP may come over the top with marginal holdings. The initial push could easily be a steal of sorts (and a pretty good play if he's got any kind of hand), and it is possible because we've done nothing to force him to define his hand. Right now he's thinking "I've got t6000, there's a ton of money in the pot, and other than the original raiser, nobody's shown any strength. I'm pushing my 99." Re-raise, and it will keep you out of this situation. If he pushes over the top of a re-raise, and then THAT bet is called, you have a better idea where you stand.



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when you "make someone define their hand" you also define your own hand for them. one advantage of smooth-calling is that you might lure CO (or someone else) into pushing, which you would then turbo-call. it might be 99, but it also might be AJ.


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Another reason I don't like the smooth call is that with one other player already calling, you're quite possibly looking at even more players coming along thanks to pot odds. While it allows you to get away from a missed flop more cheaply, you essentially need to hit two-pair or beter to bet with much confidence. If the flop comes Axx, and there is a lot of action in front, how happy are you?



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pretty happy. my chips are going in there because the pot is humungous.

(obviously if there is a ton of action i might fold)

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And another poster said that folding here is okay, since you've only invested t800. No, no, no. It doesn't matter if you, the button, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster put those chips in the pot. Do you see why?



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i understand that what you're saying is obviously correct, but there's some element of truth. if there is 300 in the pot and you're the bb and the button pushes for 1k, you're getting better odds if there's a dead SB and you have to call 700 vs if the SB folded and you have to call 800.

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That said, I'm beginning to see the logic behind folding. I do smell a lot of dead outs in the folded hands. But, boy would I be unhappy to see 99 and JJ.

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from my previous post:

Ks Ac 499339 36.43 867148 63.26 4267 0.31 0.365
Qd Qh 626101 45.68 740386 54.01 4267 0.31 0.458
Td Th 241047 17.58 1125440 82.10 4267 0.31 0.177

there's 6240*3 + 800*2 + 300 in the main, so you have 7526 cEV in the main.

in the side, say you're 45% to win. i think this is generous because it's very likely that utg and utg+1 folded at least 1 A/K, but ignore that for now.

the side is (15228-6240)*2, so you have cEV 8089 in the side. total cEV is 15615, and you paid 15228-800 = 14428, so your fold costs you ~1.2k. throw in the fact that gambling is bad, hero is higher skill than avg, and utg and utg+1 probably folded a bunch of your outs, then you're really not going to be kicking yourself at all.

the times you really win out are when button has AQ, or when button folds and CO doesn't have AA. the only way this play is any good is if CO folds somewhat often, i think.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

Man..... I muck this.

Good player makes an enormous reraise after UTG raises 4x and two people cold call? If he had a real hand, could he reraise less than all in? What do you do with KK there?

I guess he *might* be making a move with something like 56s, which would be pretty badass. But you said hes good an not necessarily tricky, and seems like such a ballsy move that few players can make it. More likely he has exactly AK, with some chance of QQ, JJ, KK, and AA in that order of likelihood. Basically your edge here is pretty fuzzy, and when the button comes in and cold calls a raise that fat (note that he didn't reraise all in to isolate, which he'd likely do with non AA/KK hands that he's playing), I think you're in trouble.

Basically I vote dump it. Though if you're going to play, that must mean that you put CO on a tricky-ish range and button on a JJ type hand, in which case taking a flop with chips left to bet is bad. It's push or fold but I vote fold.

Though preflop I think the cold call is fine with deep enough stacks (let UTG/UTG+1 hang themselves on AQ/AJ).

Everett

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

I'd be concerned about Button's smooth call.

Button is looking at an UTG miniraise, and (you) a tag call. CO doesn't have to have much to push.

Button is either trapping with a monster or is conservative and has a hand like, ak, jj. In any event he's laying you 2 1/2: 1 to call.

Your FE=zero, and you are behind so I wouldn't push. With your stack, I'd probably fold.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

[ QUOTE ]
when you "make someone define their hand" you also define your own hand for them. one advantage of smooth-calling is that you might lure CO (or someone else) into pushing, which you would then turbo-call. it might be 99, but it also might be AJ.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, but to me this falls under FPS and is very rarely a correct line.

Results
 

First off, I don't think making it 3K with AK is bad and I don't think calling is bad either. Here, I called specifically because UTG is not that good and might well hang himself on a worse ace, and because I don't mind calling a push behind me with that many dead chips (if you had AQ somewhere back there, wouldn't you be tempted?)

So CO pushes. He's good, which to me means something other than straight 'TAG', and I think his range is pretty large. I'm already hitting the call button in my head when the button calls.

Now I have a decision to make. Based on some hand ranges and a slight read, I believe one of my outs is in either UTG or UTG+1's hand somewhere. However, this obviously also makes AA/KK even less likely from the button, because not two but three aces/kings are accounted for. It is also good to remember the very similar hand posted here a week ago when button had 44.

So I pushed. Button actually thought a little bit before calling with QQ, and CO had JTs. (UTG said he folded AQ.) That was about what I expected to see...

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1379497
pokenum -h as kd - qd qh - jc tc / ad qs
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kd 384424 35.40 698479 64.32 3105 0.29 0.355
Qd Qh 466312 42.94 616591 56.78 3105 0.29 0.430
Jc Tc 232167 21.38 850736 78.34 3105 0.29 0.215

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1379508
pokenum -h as kd - qd qh / ad qs jc tc
Holdem Hi: 1086008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Kd 469910 43.27 610434 56.21 5664 0.52 0.435
Qd Qh 610434 56.21 469910 43.27 5664 0.52 0.565

With the dead chips in the pot and the benefits of winning this hand (a top 10 stack in the tournament) I think the push is pretty easy.

Comments?

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

Ton of info here. If utg is trying to play well, I would estimate that he has something like 66-99, KQ,AT+. UTG+1 is really insignificant as he is obviously dead money. Your call makes it look like you have a mid pair, and I suspect that CO is shoving a wide range of hands for two reasons. First he could be assuming that the pot is full of dead money, and has a huge overlay with a marginal hand like a mid pair, KQ, or even a suited connector. But, he could know that you know this and may induce a call from you if you are thinking along these lines with a hand like 88-TT. I suspect that the button is TT+ AK. I think with all of the overlay, you have to shove there, but I don't like your original call.

Edit: I just read the rest of the thread, and understand your call with the AK, but still dont like it. A second overcall starts to build a big pot, and you are in danger of having something like what did, or, getting in against a hand that can bust you oop. That said, I love it if you are CO or button.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

I can't think of anything insightful to add re: AK from adanthar except I strongly consider mucking it.

Instead, I'm thinking about QQ's play. Anyone push with QQ there? Does anybody fold? I know I at least think about folding.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

I might fold the AK here..I like either making a big re-raise or getting rid of the hand..Problem with AK is you need to see all 5 cards for full value, hence the re-raise or fold.

On balance I'd probably muck my AK with so many players left to act and a UTG raiser and a call in front of me.

Re: Two interesting PF decisions in the same hand with AK
 

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I can't think of anything insightful to add re: AK from adanthar except I strongly consider mucking it.

Instead, I'm thinking about QQ's play. Anyone push with QQ there? Does anybody fold? I know I at least think about folding.

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I'd fold QQ here about once every billion years. Earlier I put the CO on a squeeze play, so folding QQ is bad. Smooth calling is, IMO, not so good either. Get it heads up with a nice fat raise.

Re: Results
 

JJ/QQ, and JT was the best outcome for you; you still have 7 outs to be ahead. The alternative was not as good.

Buttons range:
AA - 1 way
KK -3 ways
QQ -3 ways
JJ -3 ways
AK - 6 ways

37% your even against AK
37% of the time you get the best outcome. 7 outs.
25% of the your way behind. 2 outs or less.

If you throw AK, and JJ out of button's range its much worse. He could plausibly fold these hands against the CO push. One other player with an A is likely.

I still don't like it, and you will need alot of luck to win, like making the nut flush.

Re: Results
 

rememebr button canbe doing something stupid, and have a hand outside of that range.. .. guess like 10% he does something real bad (like pocket 4's).

Re: Results
 

It's not me on the button [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]