I hated this hand, let me have it.
 

I hated this hand. I've been running REALLY bad and I think its causing me to play bad. Let me have it.

BB, UTG+2 & MP2 are LPP, UTG had been pretty tight. The stop and go on the turn plus UTG cold calling 2 on the flop had me concerned. In hindsight, a fold or raise was probably a better line (Q9 has me drawing dead). The fold on the river seems obvious when it's 2 bet but it really hurts when I hit my set. I can't see him 2 betting with less than 2 pair and KQ is a definite possiblity.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG folds.

River: (13.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero folds, UTG+2 folds.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

Re: I hated this hand, let me have it.
 

I'm not folding this river.

Re: I hated this hand, let me have it.
 

What the hell? You've got something like the third nuts on the river. I'd be 3-betting it.

Turn raise is debatable but if you really trust your reads, then I wouldn't hate a call too much.

Re: I hated this hand, let me have it.
 

Why are you calling that turn if you fold that river?

I'm 3-betting that more often than anything else.

Re: I hated this hand, let me have it.
 

I think you should raise the turn, then go into slowdown mode. The pot is too big to fold on the river. I don't like that fold. At all. I'm itching to raise, but a call might be more prudent.

Re: I hated this hand, let me have it.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you calling that turn if you fold that river?

I'm 3-betting that more often than anything else.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because clearly I can't play this game. Seriously, I've been making calls against LPP in these cases and been show the nuts every time. I'm really trying to do a better job using reads and putting people on hands. I realize folding the 3rd nuts requires a great read. What hands do you put villian on they will 2 bet when they have a post flop aggression factor of 0.3 that I can beat (a lower set, AJ?). I was convinced it had to be KQ (this was probably influenced by running bad). I was also afraid of a 3bet from a Q9 and then a cap (clearly that was a bad read).

If I'm really off base and just seeing monsters every where, please tell me (and I suspect I am). Right now my confidence in my game is completely shot (why I'm back at $0.5/$1 instead of $2/$4 where I had been playing and winning for months).

Re: I hated this hand, let me have it.
 

Raise the turn.

Baby Jesus cried when you folded the best hand on the river.

Re: I hated this hand, let me have it.
 

I hate this hand too. What were you folding for?
You're beat by KQ and Q9. UTG+2 likely holds a jack, maybe with decent kicker (not an ace apparently, but you couldn't know that). MP2 most likely has AJ, AT.

Enough speculation though, getting 7:1 with top set being third nuts, I think you're good.

Re: I hated this hand, let me have it.
 

[ QUOTE ]
... I can't see him 2 betting with less than 2 pair and KQ is a definite possiblity.


[/ QUOTE ]

You pretty much break it down in this quote. To fold a big pot on the river, it is not enough to think that it is a definite possibility that you are beaten. It as to be an absolute certainty or close to it. Or in this case it has to be about ~80% likely. Maybe less because of the possibility that UTG+2 reraise.

Anyways, it looks like you should at least call. Remember SSH: "paying off is part of the game". And this is a spot where you should "pay off with confidence".

Re: I hated this hand, let me have it.
 

I'd pop UTG+2 again on the turn.

The river... well its bad.