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- - LAG or genius? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=252291)

Villain has joined the table very very recently.

Hand 1: Villain posts UTG, calls a late position raise, and open-folds on an A36 flop.
Hand 2: Villain calls an EMP raise from BB, check-folds the KT7 flop
Hand 3: Villain calls a MP raise (different player) from SB, check-folds the 998 flop.
Hand 4: Villain limps on the button, bets a T58 flop, checks an ace turn, checks a king on the river. Villain loses to calling station's K2s. He did not show his hand.

---------------

Hand 5:
Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises...

My plan is to give up immediately if 3-bet, and lead the turn with the intent of not putting in any more money if only called.

Re: LAG or genius?

I'm thinking LAG. Even if he just AK or something, he's not folding a loner spade until the river. I think you have zilch folding equity, and even if you're ahead, you have to dodge a helluva lotta scare cards.

Re: LAG or genius?

Is your subject referring to you or Villan?

You haven't seen him 3-bet PF, so far, so he likes this hand more than any of the other 4. But, I like the flop play, and the plan seems sound.

Re: LAG or genius?

On this board, it comes down to whether or not we can fold 99,tt, and jj imo. The thing is, I think your line is good versus one of these without a spade, but if someone has a spade they aren't going anywhere.
I think we might consider betting a spade on the river if we are called on the turn.

Re: LAG or genius?

[ QUOTE ]
Is your subject referring to you or Villan?

You haven't seen him 3-bet PF, so far, so he likes this hand more than any of the other 4. But, I like the flop play, and the plan seems sound.

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on villain's play, he's no LAG. Based on my play... I'll leave my thoughts out for a while.

Re: LAG or genius?

by the way, awesome work with the reads. If everyone did that, it would generate a lot of great discussion.

Re: LAG or genius?

Alright, let's give villian some hands.

TT-AA, AKo, AKs sounds good I think. TT might be a stretch, but hey.

TT - 6 (3 good, 3 bad)
JJ - 6 (3 good, 3 bad)
QQ - 2 (both bad)
KK - 6 (3 kinda good, 3 bad)
AA - 6 (3 kinda good, 3 bad)
AKo - 12 (6 good, 6 bad)
AKs - 4 (3 good, 1 bad)

The bad hands represent those that DON'T have a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in them.

Let's see what we know:
a) He isn't happy to get check-raised if he's holding TT or JJ without a spade.
b) Even if he does have a spade, I think there's is good folding equity assuming that you bet out the turn and the river if no spade falls.
c) He definitely isn't going anywhere with QQ, and A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or a K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
d) He's certainly 3-betting A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and probably QQ too.
e) You're getting 4.25:1 on your semi-bluff
f) This player likes to see the flop, but doesn't show any interest in continuing on with an unimproved hand.

Ok, now for some math:

I've given him 42 possible holdings. Of those, you appear to be ahead of 15 of them. 9 of them have 6 outs twice, with 2 of those being VERY scary for villian, and 6 of them have 14 outs twice (actually making it a favorite against 44 despite a possible redraw).

On all the other hands you have 2 outs, and varying amounts of fold equity.

Let's say he always folds all 9 of the AK combinations that only have 6 outs against you. Now he's folding 9/42 = 21.428% of the time. 4.25:1 is laying you 19.048%.

Given that I think he'll fold some TT and JJ combinations that don't have spades, it looks like a solid play.

Of course, this is all dependant on whether or not the 3-betting standards I gave him are too loose. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if he'd only 3-bet JJ-AA and AKs. Without running any more calculations, I would be surprised to see a check-raise be +EV in that situation.

Re: LAG or genius?

I am no wizard at 1/2, but my guess is that this is a pretty risky plan. I think that given how passive he has be on the other flops, betting out on the scary flop is a sign of strenght. I think you might put him into call-down mode, but if you don't improve you won't pull in the pot

I think I\'m smart because the results favor me.

I think this is a marginal play, but a nice aggressive marginal play. A lot of this has to do with my read on villain.

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: Villain posts UTG, calls a late position raise, and open-folds on an A36 flop.
Hand 2: Villain calls an EMP raise from BB, check-folds the KT7 flop
Hand 3: Villain calls a MP raise (different player) from SB, check-folds the 998 flop.
Hand 4: Villain limps on the button, bets a T58 flop, checks an ace turn, checks a king on the river. Villain loses to calling station's K2s. He did not show his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first hand is fantastically donktastic. Open-folders get immediate disrespect from me. Hands 2 and 3 make him look weak-tight. Hand 4 makes him seem timid. Put all of these together, and I think I have a player likes to see flops but is afraid to show down weak hands.

I was planning to check-fold flops containing an ace or king because I don't like loose preflop/weak-tight postflop players 3-betting me. But this one came down scary enough that I decided to get creative.

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 5:
Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises...

My plan is to give up immediately if 3-bet, and lead the turn with the intent of not putting in any more money if only called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a player who has shown such weak tendencies, I'm willing to bet that he's folding non-spade hands and the odds of him holding a spade are slightly in my favor (with 3 spades already on the board, it becomes less likely that he's holding one of them). He'll probably still call down with AA-KK, but he's not going to like it.

mmbt0ne gave a nice analysis, and his numbers are based on getting villain to fold *NOW*. The numbers he put forth ignore villain's JJ and TT folds (the ones with no spades). Running the numbers again gives 15/42=35.7% for villain to fold.

Even in the slightly worse case (taking away villain's TT, AKo), villain holds 24 different hands. He folds 6 hands (AKs non-spade plus JJ without spades). This still puts me at 25% to take it down right now.

I actually think villain has a wider range of hands, going down to 88 and including AQ, AJs, KQ, KJs. Since 3 out of the last 4 hands were raised preflop, I'm guessing that he suspects the table is a little LAGgy. That's just a guess, so I'm not putting a ton of weight in it. This tilts things slightly more in my favor.

Anyway, villain folded to the check-raise and left the table 3 hands later.

Re: LAG or genius?