standard $109 AK hand?
 

***** Hand History for Game 2512869467 *****
150/300 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 14723249) - Wed Aug 10 19:44:56 EDT 2005
Table Table 12035 (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: Bopper1402 (2675)
Seat 4: airwave (540)
Seat 6: NewtBuggs (2805)
Seat 9: Maabus422 (1765)
Seat 10: bigfly9964 (2215)
Bopper1402 posts small blind (75)
airwave posts big blind (150)
** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to NewtBuggs [ Ks, Ad ]
NewtBuggs raises (400) to 400
Maabus422 folds.
bigfly9964 raises (2215) to 2215
bigfly9964 is all-In.
Bopper1402 folds.
airwave folds.
NewtBuggs folds.

no reads

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

I'd call. But I might be wrong. Maybe I found a leak!!

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

I'm not a expert by any means in buy ins over $60, so I'm somewhat puzzled by the hand.

If you could, explain to me your basic logic in folding? (I have a simple idea though not sure its the right one).

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

I'm a lurker, so this might very well be my first post. Be gentle.

So you're the chip leader approaching the money. t400 is about 15% of your chips (which is good enough to make you think twice about laying this down). If you fold, you're still in 2nd or 3rd chip position sitting across the table from a very small stack looking to give t700 chips to someone very soon.

At best, you're probably a coin flip. At worst, you're dominated by AA or KK. I fold this and look for a better spot to risk my tournament life.

-Rob

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

I fold here too, if it makes you feel any better.

[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

How well do you use your stack?

I fold here, but it might be right for some people to call (or to call if you had a stone-cold read).

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

Don't you feel like this may be precisely what the pusher is thinking?

Edit: I'd also like to know how soon the blinds are going up, something to think about.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

so there is 1025 in the pot and it is about 1800 more to call so you are getting about 1.6-1 and would need to have about a 40% chance on average to win to make the call correct. Some quick math I did if you assume the raise is 99-aa, (6 combinations of 99-qq and 6 of aa or kk) gives you 39% on average. But if you add just AQ to he mix, then you are about 48% to win making the call correct. So you would have to put the raiser on only the bigger pairs to make this laydown which is probably too tight to assume of most online players here.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

Personally, I would fold, but I don't kick ass with a big stack as much as you and some other people do. How often do you take first if you call and win here? This might be a case where the marginal value of newly acquired chips doesn't reall diminish much, since they will give you so much leverage being on the bubble with a huge stack.

Re: standard $109 AK hand?
 

ICM:
fold=.2403
call and lose=.0851
call and win=.3853

Against AQ+,99+ I will win 48.7%. Against 66+,ATs+,AJo+ I will win 52.1% of the time.

according to ICM, if I win 52% of the time that averages to a value of .2412, which is about .1% higher than folding. So it looks like this is either an almost break even call or an unprofitable one if he is on a tight range. Furthermore, I think that ICM overvalues my strength when I call and lose because I am UTG and will take a blind that cripples my remaining strength.

so now the follow up questions:
1. First, do you agree with the above math? It looks like this is a fold to me. I would think that this guy would be suicidal to be bluffing my UTG raise with a hand like A9 or 55.
2. If I don't want someone to come over the top of my UTG raise, than what do I want from raising UTG? Do I really want the button to just call and have to play what will likely be ace high OOP in a big pot? Maybe pushing is more profitable than simply raising here. Or, perhaps its best to get tricky and limp utg. What do you think? I feel like i've backed myself into a corner by raising utg.