Probabilities in Triple Draw
 

Hi, as a lot of people I'd imagine, I've been playing 2-7 TDL after reading Negreanu's chapter in SS2. Is there any treatment out there showing all the various drawing odds in that game? For example, if I'm dealt 2347x, and I draw one, what are the odds I draw a 5 or a 6 in any of the next three draws? If this isn't out there it would be easy for me to create, just don't want to reinvent the wheel.

Re: Probabilities in Triple Draw
 

You can use the odds tables Mike Caro provided in the original Super System for single draw lowball by using them in triple draw on a draw by draw basis.

Re: Probabilities in Triple Draw
 

It's pretty straightforward, if you want to calculate some:

You have 2 3 4 7 x

discard x and draw 1

the probability you will draw a 5 or 6 is:

52-5=47 cards left

8 outs/47 cards= .17 = 17%

for the next draw (assuming you miss) the probability actually goes UP slightly:

8 outs/46 cards: 0.174= 17.4%
Odds against= 1/0.174 - 1= <font color="red"> </font> 4.7 to 1 against <font color="black"> </font>

etc...

hope this helps!


--Steve

Re: Probabilities in Triple Draw
 

Thanks, I decided to do this myself and got, of course, similar answers. So, taking the 2347x 1 card draw a step further, probability of hitting on the first draw is about 17%, 2nd draw if you miss is about 17.4%, 3rd draw is about 17.8%. So, if you are dealt 2347x, the probability of hitting in three draws is .17+(1-.17)(.174)+(1-.17)(1-.174)(.178) which equals about 44%, or about 1.29 against? Does that seem right? This all ignores the flush possibilities, but shouldn't be all that impactful on the final answer, correct?

Re: Probabilities in Triple Draw
 

Yeah my math matches yours.

Re: Probabilities in Triple Draw
 

that looks right...I'll be doing a rigorous analysis one of these days.

That's what makes triple draw so much fun...the odds are good so you generally have pot odds. In addition, so many people play incorrectly (so far), making it a great moneymaker.

I always like Lowball games because there are a lot more "BAD" (2 3 4 5 7-type hands) than there are "GOOD" (royal flush, etc) ones! I've still never had a royal, but I've had the best possible hand in lowball countless times.

the downside is that the same is true for my opponents :-)

--Lob

Re: Probabilities in Triple Draw
 

We've begun playing Triple Draw at my club (nyc). Is SSII the only place to find literature or does 2+2 have anything?

Re: Probabilities in Triple Draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
We've begun playing Triple Draw at my club (nyc). Is SSII the only place to find literature or does 2+2 have anything?

[/ QUOTE ]So far SSII is the only place to turn. I am also going to read the lowball section of SS1 because there may be a few tips to help our play.

PS: I can't belive I folded my K high to a straight... I'm such a fish!

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Re: Probabilities in Triple Draw
 

Does it make sense to try to use your opponents actions to take into account in your own calculations. If everyone at the table who acted before you folded or discared the maximum, does it make sense to assume that the deck is probably slightly more rich in low cards then if everyone who acted before you drew only one or stood pat? Obviously this is a very loose estimation, but is it a meaningful enough source of information that it could impact your play?

Re: Probabilities in Triple Draw
 

Nice post, but unfortunatly relevent to the hand I played. You can see it in the B&amp;M forum... I just played the river poorly, nothing more.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]