MP with K9s and an M of 3.8
 

Hope some folks can help settle a debate I'm having with a friend.

$20 MTT

20 left, 18 pay

Blinds 300/600 w/50 Ante

7 Handed (T1250 in pot)

Me - T4790 (M of 3.8)

Behind me are the following stacks:

T1432
T1075
T8977 (SB)
T14447 (BB)

Have only played a couple laps at this table and had no significant read on any individual players other than to say that play had been playing pretty standard "bubble tight".

I pick up K9s 3rd to act and it's folded to me.

All-in or fold?

Thanks for your input...

Re: MP with K9s and an M of 3.8
 

push.. people play really tight on the bubble, K9s isn't too bad of a hand for your situation/position.

Re: MP with K9s and an M of 3.8
 

I'd fold here for a couple of reasons. First, there are two shorter stacks behind you, so they could very reasonably call you with any ace or any pair higher than 6. Your M is pretty low but with the shorter stacks behind you, you shouldn't be that desperate yet.

Second, you'd be pushing into the big stack's BB, and he'd call you with the same range as mentioned above IMO. Of course, reads would help, particularly that of the BB, but with no reads, I'd fold hoping to pick up a monster before the blind comes back to me.

Re: MP with K9s and an M of 3.8
 

You need chips, push. Give yourself a chance to reach the FT by taking the chances while you still have some chips left rather then waiting.

Re: MP with K9s and an M of 3.8
 

those stacks aren't big, hero has about half their stack.. short stacks won't be doing anything crazy on the bubble and they are in LP with the blinds past them, they're going to wait for a legit hand.. plus we don't mind a call from the short stacks since it won't knock us out but could increase our stack.

Re: MP with K9s and an M of 3.8
 

Push it in.

Wait and hope to get a monster? Please.

Re: MP with K9s and an M of 3.8
 

So, the 2+2 jury votes 3-1 in favor of pushing.

Any other votes?

(4-1 if you include me, I say easy push...)

Re: MP with K9s and an M of 3.8
 

I think I would have folded.

Re: MP with K9s and an M of 3.8
 

I would push as well, hoping the large(r) stacks in the blinds will pass, trying to wait out the tiny stacks in LP.

Picking up 1250 (26% of my stack) is pretty enticing here.

To increase the content level here, what range are you pushing? I'll probably push 55+, A5+, K8+, Q8+, 910+.

Re: MP with K9s and an M of 3.8
 

Just ran this range (basically assuming 1 person calls with ~ top 33% of hands:

2,705,440,320 games

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.1724 % 46.08% 02.10% { K9s }
Hand 2: 51.8276 % 49.73% 02.10% { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A5o+, K8o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }


I think this means I'm too tight.