from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

I'm sitting at 420 k and I got knocked out in 2 hands with about 30 left.

Blinds 10/20k and bb has about 175K left after posting. I raise to 100k in the sb with K7- he pushes with A2 and I have to call and lose.

Now 10 hands or so later I push A9 off (9.5 BB) with button and blinds left to go. I get instacalled by A10 and I lose.

From sng play you have to push small edges in shorthanded situations. Should I just wait for better hands before I attack or is this just a small example of loose callers. I wouldn't call with A2 in the blinds for my tournament life if I had 10bb unless I knew the guy was doing it everytime.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

I know the feeling and it sucks. You got unlucky towards the end. The K7 hand, I say either raise to 50K so you can get away from the hand or push all in preflop. I don't like the 100K raise in this situation. I don't think you can really fold it preflop, can you?

A9 hand nothing you can do their.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

I've been chipleader 3 times in the past two weeks entering the last 140.

Once finished 137th, one 80th, and one 31st.

It happens in big tournaments when the stacks get so short.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

Raising to 50 then folding could work out better but I would be out of position and the small raise invites a push from a lot of hands which I may beat. 100k did the same thing as a push since I pushed a few hands earlier I wanted to actually look like there was thought behind the bet.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

I totally agree with comments. But sometimes I wonder if these donks reraise to 175K thinking he has some folding equity against you, not realizing your pot committed. I don't know.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

first off, i just wanted to say that in these shallow stacked tournaments, while its frustrating, its not that surprising to go from CL to broke in just a couple of hands. i mean, look at where you were -- as CL, you had about 21BBs. thats silly.

second hand looks good. the first hand though, i think sometimes you have to spell it out for these guys -- you have no fold equity! if it folds to you in the SB here, and BB has a comfortable chipstack (under 10xBB, but I bet a lot of stacks were under 10xBB at that time), you should just push. don't give him the notion that he MIGHT make you fold. instead, make him decide whether he's willing to put his "tournament life" on the line with whatever hes holding.

or of course the alternative is raising to 50k and folding to a push. but i think raising to 100k is the "worst of both worlds." i say push it allin and make that sucka make a big call to double up.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
I know the feeling and it sucks. You got unlucky towards the end. The K7 hand, I say either raise to 50K so you can get away from the hand or push all in preflop. I don't like the 100K raise in this situation. I don't think you can really fold it preflop, can you?

A9 hand nothing you can do their.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like raising to 50K and folding to a reraise at all. Once you raise to 50K, you have pot odds to call. Either push or limp. Raising to 100K is the same as pushing and may look stronger, so this is fine too.

K7o is only a 59-41 dog to A2o and you have pot odds.

You were the chip leader but had less than 20xBB. It is easy to bust out fast if you don't play weak tight.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like raising to 50K and folding to a reraise at all. Once you raise to 50K, you have pot odds to call.

K7o is only a 59-41 dog to A2o and you have pot odds.



[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you're not quite getting 2-1 and we don't know that he has A2, so, assign the guy a range. It might not be a correct call. As I've said before, I hate doing the EV calculations, but saying "K7o is a 59-41 dog against A2" is really not a justification for calling the push there.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

Look out for the big stacks. I don't like the 100k raise. I don't like the raise with king no kicker. let some of the smaller stacks bust out. If you are going to raise, go 3xBB if you can't get away from it.

His range is any pair, any ace, any two paints; less likely are higher suited connectors; his perception of your range is proly any two cards due to you being chip leader / bully.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

I dunno about the average player, but when I see a 5x bb raise on the button/sb, I immediately think weakness. That doesn't mean I'm gonna push with a2, but it's something to keep in mind.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

[quoteI don't like raising to 50K and folding to a reraise at all. Once you raise to 50K, you have pot odds to call. Either push or limp. .

K7o is only a 59-41 dog to A2o and you have pot odds.

You were the chip leader but had less than 20xBB. It is easy to bust out fast if you don't play weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he's not flipping over A2o and showing you, is he? Against a more reasonable range of any Ace, any pair, K7o is a 65:35 dog.

If he raised to 50k, and the guy reraised him all in, he has to call 145k to win 245k. Those are odds of 63:37. So he does not have the pot odds to call.

Even if he did marginally have the pot odds to call, he is giving up so much the 65% of the time that he loses. The ability to push around. The ability to steal without committing your whole stack. The ability not to be a pushbot.

You guys are acting like this was all inevitable, since he was folded to in the SB with K7 (which is only a 55% favorite against a random hand). I think that is completely wrong.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't like raising to 50K and folding to a reraise at all. Once you raise to 50K, you have pot odds to call. Either push or limp. .

K7o is only a 59-41 dog to A2o and you have pot odds.

You were the chip leader but had less than 20xBB. It is easy to bust out fast if you don't play weak tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he's not flipping over A2o and showing you, is he? Against a more reasonable range of any Ace, any pair, K7o is a 65:35 dog.

If he raised to 50k, and the guy reraised him all in, he has to call 145k to win 245k. Those are odds of 63:37. So he does not have the pot odds to call.

Even if he did marginally have the pot odds to call, he is giving up so much the 65% of the time that he loses. The ability to push around. The ability to steal without committing your whole stack. The ability not to be a pushbot.

You guys are acting like this was all inevitable, since he was folded to in the SB with K7 (which is only a 55% favorite against a random hand). I think that is completely wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Blind versus blind, I don't know if villain's range for reraising allin is all that high. K7o is about the same versus A3-A6 as A2, and better versus 22-66.

If you are really planning on folding to a reraise, I would miniraise, which gives you better odds to fold.

I think the push is best here. It is definately chip EV+. I think Sklansky did calculations, showing that you could push with an awful lot of hands even if your opponent knew what you had.

True you can wind up going from chip leader to bust out playing aggressively, but you can also win the tournament that way.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

Did you ever consider just folding and letting the blind go? I know, I know, CL pushing the little guy around, thats how I would perceive it and so with A2, i just might fire back as well, especially if this is something you were doing ith on a fairly consistent basis. Lets face it, you can make that play with any 2 cards, I did it with 8 2 the other day, easy steal from MP, also didnt hurt that I had around 900k. If you did this with any type of consistency, then you can throw FE out the door, at some point someone will say F*** It I'm taking a stand. And the A9o, were you so desperate at that point to push? Sure you are a slight favorite against a random hand. You still had a decent M, not great, but not desperate either, why push?

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
100k did the same thing as a push since I pushed a few hands earlier I wanted to actually look like there was thought behind the bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what exactly did you hope to accomplish by raising to 100K? Did you think that size raise would encourage your opponent, perversely, to fold some hands with which he would have called a push?

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
Did you ever consider just folding and letting the blind go? I know, I know, CL pushing the little guy around, thats how I would perceive it and so with A2, i just might fire back as well, especially if this is something you were doing ith on a fairly consistent basis. Lets face it, you can make that play with any 2 cards, I did it with 8 2 the other day, easy steal from MP, also didnt hurt that I had around 900k. If you did this with any type of consistency, then you can throw FE out the door, at some point someone will say F*** It I'm taking a stand. And the A9o, were you so desperate at that point to push? Sure you are a slight favorite against a random hand. You still had a decent M, not great, but not desperate either, why push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding K7o in the SB is really bad, particularly if you are the chip leader. I've folded better hands than that in the SB many times, but I had a specific reason. You don't have to bully people with the chip lead, but no need to play ultraconservative.

Pushing is cEV+, and I don't think you should be afraid to gamble. You won't win the tornament by playing cautiously. I think you have to limp, raise, or push. Folding is way too weak tight.

You have to push with A9o from the button. That is a really big hand 3-handed.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
[If you are really planning on folding to a reraise, I would miniraise, which gives you better odds to fold.

I think the push is best here. It is definately chip EV+.

[/ QUOTE ] I think the minraise gives the villian the odds to call with any two, so I prefer the 2.5 BB raise.

A push is definitely an option, depending what has been happening at the table. But I also think a raise, fold to reraise is a viable option, unless you've been doing a lot of that. Table dynamics at this point mean so much--If I have been stealing at will, I might even let this go (so I don't have to play out of position if he calls the bet).

But if you minraise or raise 2.5BBs, you need to fold to the reraise all-in.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Did you ever consider just folding and letting the blind go? I know, I know, CL pushing the little guy around, thats how I would perceive it and so with A2, i just might fire back as well, especially if this is something you were doing ith on a fairly consistent basis. Lets face it, you can make that play with any 2 cards, I did it with 8 2 the other day, easy steal from MP, also didnt hurt that I had around 900k. If you did this with any type of consistency, then you can throw FE out the door, at some point someone will say F*** It I'm taking a stand. And the A9o, were you so desperate at that point to push? Sure you are a slight favorite against a random hand. You still had a decent M, not great, but not desperate either, why push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding K7o in the SB is really bad, particularly if you are the chip leader. I've folded better hands than that in the SB many times, but I had a specific reason. You don't have to bully people with the chip lead, but no need to play ultraconservative.

Pushing is cEV+, and I don't think you should be afraid to gamble. You won't win the tornament by playing cautiously. I think you have to limp, raise, or push. Folding is way too weak tight.

You have to push with A9o from the button. That is a really big hand 3-handed.

[/ QUOTE ]


First off, with A9 it was four handed. Second, folding K7o in the SB is not weak tight, even if it was folded around to the SB. I know that half of the time the BB is going to fold, but like I said, this a play that was done earlier as a push, now to make it look like there is some thought behind it, to me, shows weakness and is behind the BB A2. It should have been a push or fold, maybe limp but to just raise is not the line I would take. Something I havent seen mentioned is table image, if the BB perceived that the SB makes this play with any two cards then why just call the raise, for the BB this was a push or fold situation facing the raise from the CL. BB pushes, SB must call given the odds. At the beginning of the hand, was the SB willing to call a push with K7o? I think not. I'm not risking half of my stack just to pick up a ~48k pot. 3xBB raise = I want action, 5xbb = No action please. Thats the perception that I see.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Did you ever consider just folding and letting the blind go? I know, I know, CL pushing the little guy around, thats how I would perceive it and so with A2, i just might fire back as well, especially if this is something you were doing ith on a fairly consistent basis. Lets face it, you can make that play with any 2 cards, I did it with 8 2 the other day, easy steal from MP, also didnt hurt that I had around 900k. If you did this with any type of consistency, then you can throw FE out the door, at some point someone will say F*** It I'm taking a stand. And the A9o, were you so desperate at that point to push? Sure you are a slight favorite against a random hand. You still had a decent M, not great, but not desperate either, why push?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding K7o in the SB is really bad, particularly if you are the chip leader. I've folded better hands than that in the SB many times, but I had a specific reason. You don't have to bully people with the chip lead, but no need to play ultraconservative.

Pushing is cEV+, and I don't think you should be afraid to gamble. You won't win the tornament by playing cautiously. I think you have to limp, raise, or push. Folding is way too weak tight.

You have to push with A9o from the button. That is a really big hand 3-handed.

[/ QUOTE ]


First off, with A9 it was four handed. Second, folding K7o in the SB is not weak tight, even if it was folded around to the SB. I know that half of the time the BB is going to fold, but like I said, this a play that was done earlier as a push, now to make it look like there is some thought behind it, to me, shows weakness and is behind the BB A2. It should have been a push or fold, maybe limp but to just raise is not the line I would take. Something I havent seen mentioned is table image, if the BB perceived that the SB makes this play with any two cards then why just call the raise, for the BB this was a push or fold situation facing the raise from the CL. BB pushes, SB must call given the odds. At the beginning of the hand, was the SB willing to call a push with K7o? I think not. I'm not risking half of my stack just to pick up a ~48k pot. 3xBB raise = I want action, 5xbb = No action please. Thats the perception that I see.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are pushing from the button with a9o, so it is
essentially 3-handed.

As for folding K7o in the SB, if you want to open fold in the SB, you will get enough junk hands to do that with.

The Math behind a push...
 

Case 1: Villian calls a push about 10% of the time {AA-77, ATs+, AJo+, KQs} Hero is 28/71 vs villian's range.

cEV(fold) = 410,000
cEV(push) = .9(steals blinds) + .1(villian calls and hand plays out)
= .9(440,000) + .1[ (.28*615,000 )+ (.71*225,000) ]
= 429,195



Case 2: Villian calls a push about 25% of the time {AA-22, any ace, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs} Hero is 35/65 vs range

cEV(fold) = 410,000
cEV(push) = .75(steals blinds) + .25(villian calls and hand plays out)
= .75(440,000) + .25[ (.35*615,000 )+ (.65*225,000) ]
= 420,375




So...

Definitely +cEV, but only marginally (+1BB when your stack is 20BB) and it gets worse as your opponent's range loosens.

IMO, risking too much for too little given your stack and ability to use it.

I think this is a perfect example of passing up a marginally +EV bet now if losing it will cost you the opportunity of making an even greater +EV wager down the road.


That being said, many times I limp here and bet any flop.


[i]Edit: in case it's not evident from my post, I think raising the calling a push is bad, bad, bad. I'm either pushing (which I wouldn't have done at the time, and I think the math justifies that decision), limping, or folding. The limp/fold decision is based upon how active villian has been preflop.

Re: The Math behind a push...
 

[ QUOTE ]
Case 1: Villian calls a push about 10% of the time {AA-77, ATs+, AJo+, KQs} Hero is 28/71 vs villian's range.

cEV(fold) = 410,000
cEV(push) = .9(steals blinds) + .1(villian calls and hand plays out)
= .9(440,000) + .1[ (.28*615,000 )+ (.71*225,000) ]
= 429,195



Case 2: Villian calls a push about 25% of the time {AA-22, any ace, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs} Hero is 35/65 vs range

cEV(fold) = 410,000
cEV(push) = .75(steals blinds) + .25(villian calls and hand plays out)
= .75(440,000) + .25[ (.35*615,000 )+ (.65*225,000) ]
= 420,375




So...

Definitely +cEV, but only marginally (+1BB when your stack is 20BB) and it gets worse as your opponent's range loosens.

IMO, risking too much for too little given your stack and ability to use it.

I think this is a perfect example of passing up a marginally +EV bet now if losing it will cost you the opportunity of making an even greater +EV wager down the road.


That being said, many times I limp here and bet any flop.


[i]Edit: in case it's not evident from my post, I think raising the calling a push is bad, bad, bad. I'm either pushing (which I wouldn't have done at the time, and I think the math justifies that decision), limping, or folding. The limp/fold decision is based upon how active villian has been preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was trying to get at Betgo. I didnt explain or prove it as well, but this is it. And one more time, the A9o push was with the button and blinds still to act, 4 handed.

Re: The Math behind a push...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Case 1: Villian calls a push about 10% of the time {AA-77, ATs+, AJo+, KQs} Hero is 28/71 vs villian's range.

cEV(fold) = 410,000
cEV(push) = .9(steals blinds) + .1(villian calls and hand plays out)
= .9(440,000) + .1[ (.28*615,000 )+ (.71*225,000) ]
= 429,195



Case 2: Villian calls a push about 25% of the time {AA-22, any ace, KTs+, KJo+, QJs, JTs} Hero is 35/65 vs range

cEV(fold) = 410,000
cEV(push) = .75(steals blinds) + .25(villian calls and hand plays out)
= .75(440,000) + .25[ (.35*615,000 )+ (.65*225,000) ]
= 420,375




So...

Definitely +cEV, but only marginally (+1BB when your stack is 20BB) and it gets worse as your opponent's range loosens.

IMO, risking too much for too little given your stack and ability to use it.

I think this is a perfect example of passing up a marginally +EV bet now if losing it will cost you the opportunity of making an even greater +EV wager down the road.


That being said, many times I limp here and bet any flop.


[i]Edit: in case it's not evident from my post, I think raising the calling a push is bad, bad, bad. I'm either pushing (which I wouldn't have done at the time, and I think the math justifies that decision), limping, or folding. The limp/fold decision is based upon how active villian has been preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I was trying to get at Betgo. I didnt explain or prove it as well, but this is it. And one more time, the A9o push was with the button and blinds still to act, 4 handed.

[/ QUOTE ]




FWIW, the A9o hand is an autopush. Do the math and you'll see.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

I think you raised too much.

You asked villain to play for all his chips, you got it, with no ability to get away from the hand.

Calling A2 is slightly CEV- if hero is loose and CEV+ if hero is any two. It's a gutsy call, but probably $EV+ as 20XBB will get you close to the final table.

Re: The Math behind a push...
 

[ QUOTE ]
That being said, many times I limp here and bet any flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Against typical opponents, I believe that line is most profitable in this situation.

Re: from chipleader to out in the stars 45k rebuy
 

If you're going to raise to 100k in the first hand you might as well just put the BB all in. You're obviously not folding so why even give him the chance to reraise.

If he's pushing with A2o then I don't think you've been paying enough attention to who is weak/tight and your table and who is willing to gamble. Try to pay more attention to who isn't defending their blinds and pick on them.


With the A9o and only 3 players left to act and your stack at only 9.5BB you have to make the push.