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-   -   A Quick Probability Question (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=358839)

Twitch1977 10-16-2005 01:46 PM

A Quick Probability Question
 
I am entering 10 draws, in each individual drawing I have a 5% chance of winning. How do I figure out my cumulative chance of winning over the 10 draws?

If anyone could help me out with this it'd be awesome [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks
T

SheetWise 10-16-2005 01:56 PM

Re: A Quick Probability Question
 
Calculate your chance of losing, and subtract it from 1.
1-(.95^10)=.40126

Twitch1977 10-16-2005 02:01 PM

Re: A Quick Probability Question
 
Thanks much [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

T

AaronBrown 10-16-2005 02:01 PM

Re: A Quick Probability Question
 
Sheetwise gave you an excellent answer, but there are two important caveats. First, this assumes that the individual drawings are independent. Second, it is the chance that you win one or more times out of ten. The expected number of wins out of ten draws is 0.5 (this is true whether the draws are independent or not). The difference between this and 0.40126 is due the the possibility of winning two or more times.


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