Re: 999 vs LAG
 

The size of the pot doesn't matter here. We're figuring out the best play to maximize EV on the river, alone.

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

[ QUOTE ]

p * (-2BB) + (0.9-p) * (+1BB) + 0.1 * (+0BB) > 0
-2p + 0.9 - p > 0
0.9 - 3p > 0
0.9 > 3p
p > 0.3


[/ QUOTE ]

This needed to be fixed badly.

Based on the notion that the entire size of the pot being relevant here, the river going check/check and us winning has an EV of +1.3BB, which is wrong.

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

bet call. Check call ain't horrible.

Krishan

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes but that doesn't matter. You have to take in account what you win when you win and what you lose when you lose.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you can calculate the EV of a river bet without including the pot. He isn't folding you know.

Krishan

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

True is right. The Ev of the river player still depends on the pot size.

And villian doesn't just need a straight. He could also have a bigger set.

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
True is right. The Ev of the river player still depends on the pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm while my actual "expected value" depends on the pot size, the question is whether bet/call makes more money than check/call. assuming I never fold and villain never folds a better hand (pretty damn safe assumption) the pot size will have the same effect on overall EV for both lines. am I missing something?

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

Why so many study?
If you think you are likely beaten just check/call if not bet/call river play is not that complicated thing

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why so many study?
If you think you are likely beaten just check/call if not bet/call river play is not that complicated thing

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi, welcome to 2+2.

river play is a very, very complicated thing. I'll give you a huge piece of wisdom right here: if you're heads up on the river and first to act, whether or not you are have the best hand +/-50% of the time has almost nothing to do with whether to bet or check.

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

Easy check/call.

Re: 999 vs LAG
 

[ QUOTE ]
bet call. Check call ain't horrible.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think based on the pf and turn action that we are behind a lot?