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-   -   building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=402683)

whiskeytown 12-21-2005 09:38 AM

building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
just thought I'd share this article - It's very interesting - and involves building a TOURNEY bankroll using SNG's as practice - and also gives tips - (I can't multitable and get good results right now so I've stopped) -

I cashed out all my wins/bonus money and left myself at 50 bucks - my SNG game is getting really good, and my MTT game should still improve a bit -

I'd like to actually build a bankroll again instead of taking cash out of the checking account - I have a bit of "phbbt" money (80 bucks) at other sites for some nice LL tourneys or NL - but Pokerstars is gonna be my primary tourney/SNG site till further notice.

I'll try to post updates as they come - it functions similar to the Open Internet Challenge - where you move up in steps -

$50-$150 - $5 SNGs
$150-$250 - $10 SNGs
$250-$400 - $20 SNGs
$400-$600 - $30 SNGs / 1 or 2 $10 MTT a week
$600-$1000 - $50 SNG / 2 or 4 $20 MTT a week
$1000-$1500 - $50 SNG / 1 or 2 $100 a week / $20-$50 MTT 5-10 MTTs a week
$1500+ - Keep only $1500 in the account / any earnings take out / only MTTs

-------------

I find this objective based approach helps me play better, so I'm going with it....despite the fact I think I can regularly beat the 20 games - I need a new SNG tracker though - working on that.

will keep you updated - gonna take a couple weeks off the MTT boards - LOL.

RB

Roman 12-21-2005 09:40 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
good luck with this

Sam T. 12-21-2005 09:46 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
I know you are a solid player, but unless you've made your peace with going broke, I'm a bit leery of the schedule you laid out, just because (as everyone on the STT forum knows) a 20 buy-in down-swing is not uncommon even for winning players. So I would want to build up more of a BR before moving up.

Also, if you are on Stars, keep in mind the Sats that are out there. Before the arrival of the goldmine known as $20+2/180-man tournamnets, I played the $3-rebuys to the $500k guaranteed. It's a bit different game (finishing 20th with 1 chip is the same as finishing first with 1,000,000,), but as you work on the early and mid-stages of your game it is (IMO) invaluable - the stacks are deep enough that you get to play a lot of poker for your money.

GL,

Sam

johnnybeef 12-21-2005 10:27 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
Yo, I just read that article, and that guy doesn't know his elbow from his [censored]. A 35% ROI at the 22s is impossible longterm. That dude hit a monster heater (if he is even telling the truth) and is telling everyone how to screw them selves.

whiskeytown 12-21-2005 10:37 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
I am comfortable and won't freak with going broke.

I'll tell you something though - It's something I felt too stupid posting in a strategy post, but I'll say it here.

I've been doing better - I think I'm overbetting my hands a bit - but I feel like poker the way I used to play it was a series of coin-flips - try to have the most money in on the best of them - whether 33/66 or 47/53 -

But now I realize that the fewer showdowns I see, the better, and if I have the position and chips to take it down or force a surrender before it gets to that point, I have guaranteed myself a stack of chips - and doing this fairly regularly not only gets you a lot of free steals, but makes a re-raise easier to read and get out of the way on.

so I'm trying some different stuff - wider gap in my gap concept - more aggression at various stages and cutting back at spots...

times when you need a 5xbb bet and times when a 2.5xbb bet will tell you if it's a freebie or a monster you need to lay down to.

Times when you need to flip the coin and times when you just wait him out. And you learn NEVER to click the check/fold option early cause even though it's 7/2, IF everyone folds up to you a nice placed reraise will pay off 80 percent of the time.

Things like that are coming to me...:) - personally - I haven't gone off on my "poker as wargaming" analogy yet because it's sorta known I like to toke occasionally and it all sorta reads like a stoner dream. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

But it's obvious to me now why I got so drawn into poker tournaments - they're so close to Advanced Squad Leader and all the board games I used to play.

RB

gumpzilla 12-21-2005 10:58 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
As the other SNG regulars are pointing out, these bankroll requirements are way low compared to what you're going to need to protect yourself reasonably against risk of ruin. If you're good, you can probably manage at the 10s with 10-15 buyins; being lucky doesn't hurt here either. But especially as you go further up, you're going to need 2, 3, or 4 times as much as the figures you're quoting.

whiskeytown 12-21-2005 11:05 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
well, either way, I think I can beat the 10 buck SNG's and I wanna try it like an Open Internet Challenge -

One last small insignificant waste of capital before 2006 comes cracking down on me.

RB

11t 12-21-2005 11:08 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
I 100% gauruntee no matter how good you are that you go broke within 1500 tournaments using a 20-30 buyin bankroll for SNG's.

12-21-2005 11:38 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
$50-$150 - $5 SNGs
$150-$250 - $10 SNGs
$250-$400 - $20 SNGs
$400-$600 - $30 SNGs / 1 or 2 $10 MTT a week
$600-$1000 - $50 SNG / 2 or 4 $20 MTT a week
$1000-$1500 - $50 SNG / 1 or 2 $100 a week / $20-$50 MTT 5-10 MTTs a week
$1500+ - Keep only $1500 in the account / any earnings take out / only MTTs

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty much what I've used over the last year. Currently playing $50 with a $900 roll. I can't see how you could have such a bad swing that you'd go broke using that system. Afterall you drop down the limit if you drop below a certain level.

12-21-2005 05:05 PM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
Note that the stats in the article linked by the OP only have a sample of 79 STT games, total. This is an incredibly small sample size and his results seem unsustainable. I wouldn't use this article as any kind of solid reference as the results quoted in it are not of any significance.

REL18 12-21-2005 07:36 PM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
Maybe u missing what people are writting but i guess you are ok with going broke

mikeymer 12-21-2005 09:16 PM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
bad. bad bad bad.

Copernicus 12-21-2005 10:32 PM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
Yo, I just read that article, and that guy doesn't know his elbow from his [censored]. A 35% ROI at the 22s is impossible longterm. That dude hit a monster heater (if he is even telling the truth) and is telling everyone how to screw them selves.

[/ QUOTE ]

He may have run well to hit the 33% but I have ranged from 20% to 40% ROI each month for 14 months of the last 15, with only one month at 10%. My average is just over 35%. I play $30s and $50s. However, I can't play more than 2 at a time to keep that return up. If I even go to 3 my ROI drops..probably to the teens or lower. I don't do it often so the number itself isnt statistically significant, but I know my game deteriorates if I go above 2.

stevepa 12-21-2005 10:48 PM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]

But now I realize that the fewer showdowns I see, the better, and if I have the position and chips to take it down or force a surrender before it gets to that point, I have guaranteed myself a stack of chips - and doing this fairly regularly not only gets you a lot of free steals, but makes a re-raise easier to read and get out of the way on.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think I replied to one of your other posts where you said this but I still feel like you're misunderstanding something here. You're not guaranteed anything. Those raises have a certain probability of winning the pot, just like you have a certain chance of winning an all-in preflop. Especially online, where it's difficult to have very reliable reads, there is no "guaranteed stack of chips". I'm not saying you shouldn't be making those raises, obviously if they're +EV you should. But you should be pushing (basically) every edge, whether it's a bluff raise, a value raise, or an all-in preflop coinflip with some dead money. It doesn't matter, they're really all the same in the end.

Steve

good2cu 12-22-2005 12:01 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
This is one of the wrost theards, maybe the wrost, I've ever read on 2+2. Anyone who has ever ran a montecarlo simulator on SNGs knows that even for a SNG player with a 20% ROI (WHICH IS ABOSULTLY CRUSHING THE GAME), no sng player has over a 20% longterm ROI, a 40 buy-in downswing is common. Also the fancy no-showdown plays you are describing are extactly the way NOT to play at SNGs, espically at the long limits, and id surpised if its possible to beat the game playing that way.

gumpzilla 12-22-2005 12:05 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
This is one of the wrost theards, maybe the wrost, I've ever read on 2+2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps you should read more, it looks like it might do you some good.

12-22-2005 12:47 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
Here is proof this dude doesn't know crap about SNG poker (if his small sample and HORRIBLE bankroll advice weren't enough)....

"Keeping track of every SNG played - I used SNG tracker. It keeps track of your ROI (return on investment), ITM (in the money), graphs of where you placed, etc etc. I started keeping track at $20 SNGs and these are my overview results.

ROI 35%
ITM 54%
Tourneys 79
Buyins $3560
Vig (rake) $354
Total entries $3914
Prizes $5294
Profit $1380
Avg. Time 54 mins
$/tourney $17.47
$/hour $19.56
Itm from bubble 82%
Bubble % ± 7%
1st place - 19%
2nd place - 15%
3rd place - 21%
4th place - 13%
5th place - 13%
6th place - 7%
7th place - 12%
8th and 9th place - 4%"

How can you have a 35% ROI and $17.47/tourney at the $22's.
35% ROI = $7.7/tourney @ the $22's. Maybe he means gross winnings per tournament. But then he would be a loser! That is certainly not how I calculate my winnings. That said, he seems to be a good MTT player, i remember seeing him on the PS TLB many times.

Copernicus 12-22-2005 01:37 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
Here is proof this dude doesn't know crap about SNG poker (if his small sample and HORRIBLE bankroll advice weren't enough)....

"Keeping track of every SNG played - I used SNG tracker. It keeps track of your ROI (return on investment), ITM (in the money), graphs of where you placed, etc etc. I started keeping track at $20 SNGs and these are my overview results.

ROI 35%
ITM 54%
Tourneys 79
Buyins $3560
Vig (rake) $354
Total entries $3914
Prizes $5294
Profit $1380
Avg. Time 54 mins
$/tourney $17.47
$/hour $19.56
Itm from bubble 82%
Bubble % ± 7%
1st place - 19%
2nd place - 15%
3rd place - 21%
4th place - 13%
5th place - 13%
6th place - 7%
7th place - 12%
8th and 9th place - 4%"

How can you have a 35% ROI and $17.47/tourney at the $22's.
35% ROI = $7.7/tourney @ the $22's. Maybe he means gross winnings per tournament. But then he would be a loser! That is certainly not how I calculate my winnings. That said, he seems to be a good MTT player, i remember seeing him on the PS TLB many times.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not all $20 sngs in his stats. The average buyin is $49 with vig for 79 tourneys. The ROI calculation is correct. When he says "started keeping track at $20 SNGS" he must mean that is the level he started tracking at.

Copernicus 12-22-2005 01:44 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
This is one of the wrost theards, maybe the wrost, I've ever read on 2+2. Anyone who has ever ran a montecarlo simulator on SNGs knows that even for a SNG player with a 20% ROI (WHICH IS ABOSULTLY CRUSHING THE GAME), no sng player has over a 20% longterm ROI, a 40 buy-in downswing is common. Also the fancy no-showdown plays you are describing are extactly the way NOT to play at SNGs, espically at the long limits, and id surpised if its possible to beat the game playing that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont know how your simulator takes into account the fishy play at low buy in SnGs, but I assure you, 20% ROI is not "crushing the game".

applejuicekid 12-22-2005 01:50 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
20% ROI is not "crushing the game"

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. I think the number of people with an ROI higher than 20% is very very low.

The Don 12-22-2005 02:11 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
20% ROI is not "crushing the game"

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. I think the number of people with an ROI higher than 20% is very very low.

[/ QUOTE ]

True. The percentage of winning players above 20% is in the single digits in my estimation. Assuming we are talking about party of course. Much higher percentages are possiblee on the slow-structured Stars SNGs.

12-22-2005 02:16 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
AHHH,thank you for the insight copernicus. A little quick to judge on my part....

good2cu 12-22-2005 03:35 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
I dont know how your simulator takes into account the fishy play at low buy in SnGs, but I assure you, 20% ROI is not "crushing the game".

[/ QUOTE ]

The simulator does not take into account, anything about fishy play. It just shows the 40 buy-in downswings are going to happen to even the best sng player.

20% ROI is CRUSHING the game. This is agreed upon by all high volume players in the SNG forum. Show me anyone who has an ROI of 25%+ for a sample of over 3000 SNGs, and ill offically declare myself an idiot.

good2cu 12-22-2005 03:38 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]

Perhaps you should read more, it looks like it might do you some good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Granted, I didn't read most of the replies to the OP. But following this bankroll plan and making fancy plays in the early rounds, is a sure way to go broke, fast. SNGs are meant to be played, weak-tight early, and agressivly late and like any form of poker, have a fairly high varaince.

Copernicus 12-22-2005 03:40 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
20% ROI is not "crushing the game"

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. I think the number of people with an ROI higher than 20% is very very low.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that depends on what you define as "crushing the game" but I know 4 people including myself with an ROI of 20%+ for over a year, and mine is just over 30% for 15 months. I certainly don't think I'm an exceptional player overall, straightfoward HoH pretty much. However my shortstack and HU play is extremely good. If I'm close to the money I almost always make it, and if I get to HU, even with a substantial chip deficit, I win well more than my share.

Those are the two weakest areas of low buy in SnG players, and getting close to the money is a no brainer. If it werent for the occasional suck outs (which I define as a dominated hand after the flop) my ROI would be much higher, because those are the times I go out early.

good2cu 12-22-2005 04:02 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
He may have run well to hit the 33% but I have ranged from 20% to 40% ROI each month for 14 months of the last 15, with only one month at 10%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have been running extremely well, depending on how many SNGs you play a month. Having 14 out of 15 months with a 20% ROI is abosultly amazing, and incredibly luckly. How many SNGs have you played over those 15 months? I also see that you 1-2 table, which i suppose its possible to have a 30% or so ROI at the 33s and under with "perfect play", but I still think that statiscally having 14 out of 15 months at 20%+ ROI is >1%.

Copernicus 12-22-2005 04:08 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He may have run well to hit the 33% but I have ranged from 20% to 40% ROI each month for 14 months of the last 15, with only one month at 10%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you have been running extremely well, depending on how many SNGs you play a month. Having 14 out of 15 months with a 20% ROI is abosultly amazing, and incredibly luckly. How many SNGs have you played over those 15 months? I also see that you 1-2 table, which i suppose its possible to have a 30% or so ROI at the 33s and under with "perfect play", but I still think that statiscally having 14 out of 15 months at 20%+ ROI is >1%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I play 150-200 a month depending on whats going on at work or if I'm playing live at a major event. (I spend a week at the WSOP, the WPF's at Foxwoods, and any large ones in AC. This year I hit the Bellagio for 4 days of the 5 Diamonds as well.) In those ROIs are only 30s and 50s. I play an occasional 100, but those results are much lower, which is why I dont play many of them. That may just be variance too, but I at least perceive the quality of play to be higher in the 100s.

My live SnG/satellite results are similar to online, though my records arent as complete, and of course, there are far fewer of them.

Exitonly 12-22-2005 06:06 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
these were on pokerstars too.. aren't considerably higher roi's possible on stars w/ their better structure and longer tournaments.

Copernicus 12-22-2005 12:01 PM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
these were on pokerstars too.. aren't considerably higher roi's possible on stars w/ their better structure and longer tournaments.

[/ QUOTE ]

They are primarily Stars and Doyles Room early on, migrating toward PokerRoom/FCP the last few months. I went there bonus whoring and the play is so weak I havent left.

Multis I still like Doyles Room the best.

Copernicus 12-23-2005 12:55 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont know how your simulator takes into account the fishy play at low buy in SnGs, but I assure you, 20% ROI is not "crushing the game".

[/ QUOTE ]

The simulator does not take into account, anything about fishy play. It just shows the 40 buy-in downswings are going to happen to even the best sng player.

20% ROI is CRUSHING the game. This is agreed upon by all high volume players in the SNG forum. Show me anyone who has an ROI of 25%+ for a sample of over 3000 SNGs, and ill offically declare myself an idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, unless I go on a very bad run, prepare to declare yourself an idiot. I will have over 3000 SnGs in my data base by March or April, and since Im sitting at over 30% have a bit of cushion to drop to 25%.

If your simulator cant take into account differences in quality of play..ie its a basically a random number tracker, its worthless. What does a "40 buy-in downswing" mean? Groups of 40 that show no profit? I suppose thats not out of the question, and Ive never broken my results that way, but doubt that Ive got any near that length that show 0 or negative results.

applejuicekid 12-23-2005 01:29 AM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
What does a "40 buy-in downswing" mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

A 40 buy in downsing means you lost 40 buy ins. For example, $2200 in the $55s.

Copernicus 12-24-2005 01:56 PM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What does a "40 buy-in downswing" mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

A 40 buy in downsing means you lost 40 buy ins. For example, $2200 in the $55s.

[/ QUOTE ]

40 consecutive no cashes in one table SnGs? And this is supposed to be a possible outcome? Whatever simulator came up with that needs a bit of reality programming. In 4 years of playing SnGs I dont think Ive ever gone more than 8 without at least a 3rd, and Ive never played less than $20s.

BrettP217 12-24-2005 02:39 PM

Re: building a Tourney bankroll - from pscrew.com
 
a 40 buying downswing doesnt have to be 40 OOTM finishes in a row... but if it does happen it would more likely be over 100+ SnG's... and yes these do happen. ZeeJustin one of the best SnG players there is had a 8K downswing during a 1000 SnG challenge while playing the 200's which is 40 buy ins


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