Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

According to Pokerstove hands like QTo and T9s have an equity edge against 9 other random hands. So what's the reasoning behind folding these from UTG?

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

wow.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

Because you will be playing a weak hand out of position. Anyone else who willingly enters the pot is either brain dead or has a much better hand than you. Besides, do you really want to call a preflop raise with that hand and be out of position the rest of the hand too?

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

Because it only takes one hand to beat you. Second place doesn't get you anything... except for more losses. So who cares how good a particular hand is against random hands, it's more important to know how likely a hand is to win.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

QTo: Its a terrible hand in EP

a. if someone raises behind your hand is definitly dominated and you are out of position.
b. there is a HIGH chance someone will raise behind you.
c. if no one does your limp encourages others to limp. QTo does not play well in multi-player pots, and your out of position.

So in either case, a raiser, or a lot of callers... your screwed and have a small chance to win the pot.

T9s: Can only be played early in very loose games 5+ to the flop every time with very little preflop raising. And if there is everyone calls anyways. If you are playing a normal game like 2/4+ at party it has the same problems at QTo except it plays better vs the raising hands, but only marginally. Now if you limp and a lot of people do then its ok except for the fact you are out of position.

Now take the reverse where you are on the button and 5+ callers are in then raising with T9s becomes correct. Even if you are 2nd best hand because your hand plays so well in multi pots and you have position you can control the pot and now will have odds to call for marginal draws.

In fact there is an article out there that states with a hand like that JTs, QJs, and other hands that play well multiway (5+ callers) that even if someone raises behind you should ram and jam the pot. As long as all the previous callers still call the raises. Even if the opponent who raised has AA your hand T9s has more equity than the average loose caller and thus you are building a pot for yourself and the AA player. But to do this you have to be in a looooose game with suckers, 5+ to the flop.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

[ QUOTE ]
According to Pokerstove hands like QTo and T9s have an equity edge against 9 other random hands. So what's the reasoning behind folding these from UTG?

[/ QUOTE ]

Who says to fold them? If it's Sklansky and Malmuth then one would think that there must be a logical reason. As it turns out there might be a good reason for not playing these hands from UTG. Sklansky and Malmuth classify UTG and the next two players to act as Early position. The key here is the word position. Hands like these have an equity edge against 9 unknown hands if all of the cards are dealt out and no further betting is allowed so in NLH an arguement can be made for playing these hands depending on stack size and blind ratio. But in most live poker, not tournaments, hands are not played this way.

"Play" is another key word in determining the value of a hand. How well does a hand play against x opponents is a prime consideration when deciding if one should play the hand.

I hope we can agree that in limit poker when you raise or call with a hand like Q,T or any hand for that matter from an early position your raise or call must produce a positive EV for it to be correct. What happens whenever you enter a pot you affect the dynamics of the situation. Some considerations when making a decision to play are what type of players are left to act and how well each of them play. If you are known by good players to play hands like Q,T from early it will certainly affect what hands they play against you. We could go on about the dynamics of a hand and the factors that govern what constitutes a +EV play but it would be a long drawn out explanation. Suffice it to say that determining the EV of a poker hand is situational dependent. When someone tells you that Q,T is not profitible when played early they are using their experience coupled with some hand analysis to make a general statement that in typical games this hand does not play well enough from early position to produce a profit.

Vince

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

Its profitable against 9 random hands, but in real games you aren't up against 9 random hands you're up against 1 or 2 good hands, maybe 1 or 2 marginal hands, and 1 or 2 bad ones on average. In that case its clearly not profitable UTG but *might* be slightly profitble in late position. However, if you could somehow know that you were getting all 9 players behind you to see the flop, then playing QTo from UTG would in fact be correct. I don't advocate folding it there at some play money tables [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

You will never be playing against 9 random hands.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

You're always up against 9 random hands at a 10 handed table.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

The problem with QTo is when it does win it usually beats only bad hands, and you're not confident of winning, so you don't get much money. T9s is more likely to win with a straight or a flush, where you might beat two pair or three of a kind; and where you could make a lot of money.

Another advantage of T9s is you will fold it on the flop unless you get a four flush, open-ended straight draw, a set or two pair. You have to stick around to the river most of the time to see if QTo wins.

I'm not saying T9s is a great hand to play, or that you never call with QTo; but suited connectors have more promise than unsuited one-gappers.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're always up against 9 random hands at a 10 handed table.

[/ QUOTE ]
That misses the point. You aren't sure the players with trash like 52o will limp behind you. You aren't sure a player with TT behind you won't raise. The players who see the flop will have better than average hands, particularly when weighted by the money you have to put in.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Another advantage of T9s is you will fold it on the flop unless you get a four flush, open-ended straight draw, a set or two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. Not in loose limit games because of the times a giant pot forces you to peel with a weaker draw, and not in tight limit games where a shorthanded situation means your top pair, weak kicker might be good.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

Random hands include good and bad hands. You don't play Q 10 UTG because you have 9 hands in front of you that might raise and, on top of that, you will be OOP for the entire hand.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

I don't always fold it UTG; however, you must know the table where you are playing. If the players are playing loose agressive poker and are all calling stations, I will give it a shot once in awhile, but will fold it if I don't hit something I can work with. The obvious reasons 910s is a better hand is that you have a flush draw and a str8 possibility, but it can be dangerous because often you will get beated by a higher straight. Next if you do choose Q10o from UTG, there are three hands that could have a Q that will beat you when one or both of those last two queens hit on the flop and end up being the top pair, unless you hit your 10 and sometimes even when you do, you are going to spend your stack unless you have the foresight to see that you are out kicked.

I play online for a living and can tell you that more often than not I will always fold Q10 UTG and most of the time play 109s if I can get in for the one bet. My only exception is if I am playing a 6-handed ring game then I tend to play both of them only if I can get in for one bet with the Q10 and two bets with the 109s. I will never call more than 2x the BB with either UTG at a full 6-handed game.

Hope this has helped you out with those two hands.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

Okay, let me rephrase it. You learn more from the flop with T9s than QTo.

T9s can flop a flush draw, QTo won't unless there are three suited cards on board, and even then QTo could easily be beaten if the A or K of the suit is out.

T9s can flop three different open-ended straight draws and four different straights, QTo can only flop two different OESD's and three different straights.

They hands have the same chances for full houses, sets and two pair.

T9s will usually fold if only a pair flops with nothing better. QTo can't fold those hands if it is to have any significant chance of winning the pot. If you're going to fold a pair on the flop, you should fold preflop.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

The main reason to fold these hands is that when you improve, the chances of your opponents improving also is very high.

If so, you almost always beaten and/or outkicked

These hands in almost any seat are the classic "win a small pot or lose a big pot" scenario. Why bother?

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

Q7o is the "median" hand I believe, better than half the hands heads up, worse than half the hands heads up


But as one of my poker books says, I forget which one

"the only hand thats rewarded is the best hand. Being 2nd best is no good. Being a little above average is totally worthless"

That's why you don't play QTo.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

does pokerstove take position into consideration?

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

A lot of these sims also assume that everyone is staying in through the river -- akin to everyone having precisely 1 small bet in front of them -- something also not realistic.


Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

I think you'd be better off raising QT UTG than just calling it. I will do this occaisionally to keep my opponents guessing.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

If you really are in a situation where your raises are getting that much respect (i.e. everyone folds) that you want to mix it up against savvy opponents ... even then, I'd personally recommend other holdings (even something like 98s) over Q10o.

Barron Vangor Toth
Raw Deal co-designer
BarronVangorToth.com

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

what happens when there is a raise later on? now your in 2 bets and way behind.
what happens if you flop a queen and get raised?

Very nice analysis; n/m
 

n/m

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

[ QUOTE ]
According to Pokerstove hands like QTo and T9s have an equity edge against 9 other random hands. So what's the reasoning behind folding these from UTG?

[/ QUOTE ]

Showdown simulations, while useful for getting an idea of the relative value of hands, just don't tell the whole story for actual play. While it's true that if you and your nine opponents went all in preflop every time you have T9s or QTo, you would make money, this is not how you actually play out the hands. You and your opponents all have the option to fold, bet, call or raise on any of four betting rounds. With weak hands, you won't get much action when you're ahead, but you'll get plenty when you're behind. So, if you routinely play these hands in EP, you will likely win more than your fair share of pots, but lose money. Also consider that some of your equity will come from river cards and runner-runner miracles. In a real game, you aren't going to be sticking around for these. Acutally T9s, and other suited connectors, are good hands to occasionally open raise in EP in a tight game. It's not as bad a play as a lot of people think it is, it's easy to get away from them when they miss, and, if you do hit and show it down a few times. you will get more action when you raise your good hands. It should not be your default play, though. You're doing it mostly for table image, to loosen up, and, if you're lucky, tilt the rocks.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

Position (both relative and absolute) modifies the value of a hand significantly. A hand that would definitely be profitable on the button is not profitable up front for that reason.

The source of this difference has been covered fairly well by other posters. The main problem you have is that you don't know how much it will cost you to see the flop. These two hands depend on implied odds for profitability. If you get raised preflop your implied odds diminish. The chance you will face a raise is much higher from up front than it is on the button (or, alternatively, on the button you already know that it costs too much and can safely fold).

Even if you get lucky and survive to the flop, you are still out of position. I forget the quantification of this disadvantage, but its a lot higher than most people think.

Someone mentioned open-raising with a hand like this for variety in a tight game. Even this is dubious, though, because 2 bets is just too much for either of these hands unless you get a lot of help (and T9s is helped a lot more than QT). Further, you will often get reraised, and now you are out of position, investing too much money into a pot that is now large enough to require further aggressive action.

When can you put yourself in this situation? When you play so much better than your opponents after the flop that you can overcome this severe disadvantage. Don't kid yourself, though--very few people play well enough to profitably do this. No, in tight games you are far better off with isolation raises in late position with marginal hands and blind steals--at least then you have the benefit of position and are not as likely to be reraised by someone behind you.

Conclusion: Marginal hands are marginal for a reason, and bad position makes most of them unprofitable.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Someone mentioned open-raising with a hand like this for variety in a tight game. Even this is dubious, though, because 2 bets is just too much for either of these hands unless you get a lot of help (and T9s is helped a lot more than QT).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with openraising T9s if your opponents are playing super weak-tight or just respecting you too much in general. If shown down, it can give you a LAG image with some players and generate more action; if not shown down, you probably just stole another pot. It's usually a -EV play over the course of that particular hand, but could be a +EV play over the course of the entire session if you only do it under the correct circumstances.

T9s is probably better than QTo for this purpose, though. HU the only way the kicker is going to matter if you flop a pair of tens is if your opponent has precisely JT, and I'd rather flop a flush draw than TP4K if I've been 3bet. There is the fact that the Q might be an overcard, but I think improved straight and flush potential more than make up for that when you'll mostly be HU with a hand better than yours.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

because q-10 cannot be played with confidence. the flop comes 2-7-Q. you bet. another calls. now what the hell do you do with your 10 kicker?

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

I mentioned open raising T9s against tight or weak-tight opponents. I don't think I would ever do this with QT off. With T9, if you don't steal the blinds, it's very easy to get away from it if you don't flop flush draw, oesd or two pair. QT will often get you a marginal top pair out of position, which is often too good to fold, but not good enough to play agressively. Note that the EP open raise with T9s is really an image play. It will probably be a net loser long term, or break-even at best by itself. But if you find your EP raises with premium hands are usually just getting the blinds, it can be a good play. You might steal the blinds. You might miss the flop and check fold. You might hit the flop and show it down. Either of the last two may induce your opponents to cold call or three-bet with a worse hand the next time you rase in EP with a pocket pair, AK, AQ, etc.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

Consider 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] vs. A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] preflop. The fours will win 51.3% of the time, and only lose 48.1% of the time. Yet the AK is better unless you intend to go all-in pre-flop against what you know is AK. What happens the 7 times out of 8 when the fours don't make a set? You can call to the river and possibly make the minimal amount of money, but if an A, K, or flush hits, AK can raise, re-raise, etc. and maximize profit. The same is true with QT. Can you really be confident raising if you pair one of your cards? Even if you pair both, you could be up against a straight.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

OK, I think we might be coming from the same place. Taking the worst of it to improve your image is definitely called for in some places. Just keep in mind the cost. There might be ways to do so that are either 0 EV or at least less negative, that's all I'm saying.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

You might argue that in such a tight game, open-raising UTG with T9s becomes a blind steal, in which case the added equity from people letting you have the blinds makes this a profitable play after all. In that case, you could probably do it even with QTo--87s is better, though, as Barron pointed out, because of its improved performance against the high wired pair.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

Are we still talking about this? I thought this was pretty straight forward answer?

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

[ QUOTE ]
because q-10 cannot be played with confidence. the flop comes 2-7-Q. you bet. another calls. now what the hell do you do with your 10 kicker?

[/ QUOTE ]

You unleash an unholy barrage of bets and raises until the peasant cowers into submission.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

We fold QT/o UTG for the same reason we [usually] fold it from middle or even late position; it's a bad hand.

Re. the claim that it wins more than it's share against 9 random hands . . .

LOL - If you find 9 opponents playing RANDOM (i.e ALL) hands you should probably NOT fold QT/o UTG - although you won't win much playing it.

Even vs. 9 random hands you'll have a hard time making good choices on the flop/turn/river having to act first on each round.

I'm assuming your source does not account for future bets and provides only raw percentages (i.e. "hot-cold" runs).

You'd be shocked at some of the hands that win > 10% of the time against 9 random hands - including J/2s and T/5s.

K/7s, a hand I hope you'd never play UTG, wins a little more often than 3/3 (a hand you probably should be playing UTG in loose games).

Hot-cold %s are not of much use unless you or your opponent(s) are allin preflop and are of limited use even in these instances since you'll find few if any opponents playing random cards.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

Actually, hot-cold numbers can help us compare hands to each other, and they can also tell us whether a hand benefits or is hurt by multi-way action. You're right that we should apply some caution and common sense, but they are still useful.

In limit, I have found QTo to be OK (not great) in LP. Having position helps out a lot of mediocre hands, and this is no exception.

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

Valid points, however it's worth noting that T-9/s can flop more than 3 different open-ended straight draws.

You're leaving out K-J-7 and Q-8-6.

The addition of two possible straights (or straight draws) does not in and of itself add significant strength to this hand; J-9/s flops fewer open-ended straight draws but is obviously playable [virtually] anywhere T-9/s is; I mention it only for those who often overlook these flops.

Double-gutshot draws are really great for business, if YOU have them; they can be as expensive as hell if your opponents hav'em though a little less so if you learn to spot the fact that one could be out.

*

"The prices of the prizes are rounded off to the nearest dollar, and gift certificates do not include sales tax. Now let's meet tonight's contestants".

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

Ah, yet another fellow who has clearly not been to A.C. on a Friday night during the summer.

[img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

[/ QUOTE ]

That misses the point. You aren't sure the players with trash like 52o will limp behind you.

[/ QUOTE ]


(Though you'd obviously love it if they did).

*

You are always up against 9 random hands PRE-FLOP at a 10-handed table; these simulations assume that all 9 play through to the river and do not account for post-flop bets.

- Sometimes I can't tell if they're being serious or glib.

Then there are those such as myself who can ably manage to do both simultaneously.

*

"It is SO tough to be modest when you're as good as I am". [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Why do we fold QTo from UTG?
 

Of even more importance than having 5+ to the flop is having one or two "Curious Georges" who will march dutifully to the river.

The utter irony here is that A-A, when in the hands of a weak player, often becomes one of the "Curious Georges"; it can easily turn into a payoff-hand whereas your T-9/s almost never will.

No, I'm not saying A-A is the second best of these two hands, only that A-A often winds up as the second best hand overall in large, multi-way pots - and second best with A-A is apt to cost dearly. This fate almost never awaits T-9/s and the like. If you (and 5+ opponents) pay 2 or more bets pre-flop to see the flop you are very often committed to go to the end if you flop any sort of hand or draw, however you are [usually] correct in calling all raises (or even being the raisor). A-A often finds itself wishing the betting would end even when it knows it's [currently] ahead as these hands are very similar to Omaha pots - you know you're ahead but cannot think of more than 2 or 3 cards that will leave you there.

"Dammit deputy, send those girls home - and learn to listen more carefully; I said I need to get me a 'POSSE' - 'POSSE', dammit. What did you THINK I said" ?