Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Okay so we have all seen the dumb "would you call all in with AA on the first hand of the WSOP" posts, and the answer to that problem is pretty damn obvious considering the massive +chipEV it means, and considering that you are basically going to _have_ to experience some positive variance to make it deep. Yeah, very easy problem.

It got me thinking, though, about another "first hand" situation. I really hope this isn't obvious, but it doesn't seem ridiculously obvious to me (though I am definitely leaning in one direction).

Let's say it is the first hand of the WSOP, which has a field of 6000 players, approximately 10% of which will cash, and based on the button position you have to post the T50 BB.

UTG looks down at his cards and immediately goes all in. It's folded to you but UTG for some reason turns over his hand, and he holds A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. You look down at your hole cards and find 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Is this a call or a fold?

My first instinct is that this is a clear call, you have an equity edge (53-47), you are going to need to get lucky to go deep, and you have a chance to immediately cover every one of your opponents at the table.

I then started thinking about something I read here once, I believe David said it, that "it means less to double up when you have an extremely large or extremely small stack". Well in this case your stack is exactly par with every other stack, _however_ in terms of the chips you are going to need to eventually cash, an extra 10k means very little. That factor might have some bearing on this decision, although it might not be enough to offset the fairly large +chipEV situation you get into by calling.

Again, I really hope the answer to this isn't obvious but I would like to hear some of you guy's opinions and the theory behind what is correct, and even whether you would call if it were an absolute coin flip with no dead money (so a 50% shot to double your stack at this point, a neutral EV but extremely high variance move). I believe the correct answer might have something to do with how large or small the field is, how deep/long the structure is (if this were a six month long tournament that starts each player with 1M BBs and drudges on with a very long structure the answer to this question might depend more on different factors), or other factors. I really want to hear what factors you think contribute to this decision, how much they weigh, and what you think the correct decision is.

Again, sorry if the question is dumb or the answer is obvious. It's not to me [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] (although ATM i am definitely leaning toward a call being correct).

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Are you better than 53% of the field?

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you better than 53% of the field?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is something of a factor, yes.

This surely can't be the whole story, though, can it?
Also, the way you are stating TEV can't be right, can it?
Suppose I'm a much much better player than 60% of the field, but the other 40% of the field is on average just a little better than me? Or maybe i'm just a little better than 60% of the field, but the other 40% is miles ahead of me in skill. Surely it has to be some weighted average.

Also, compare doubling up here and playing the WSOP 1/2 the time with a double chip stack right off the bat, to playing the WSOP twice with the same chips as everyone else each time? What is going to make you more money on average? There are effects of having a big chip stack here that actually increase your "edge versus the field", no?

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Oh, I have no idea. I was just trying to be difficult.

Gut instinct, for what little that is worth, says I fold.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

I fold. I can't risk my tournament life with pocket two's. I folded them in LP in an unraised pot usually.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Instead of thinking "I can't risk my life with pocket twos", think "I won't risk my life with a 53% advantage". This puts a perspective on things.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

I think this is a much better question than the "should you fold aces" BS.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

F O L D

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

I fold and wait for better a better opportunity to get my stack allin as the blinds are still tiny compared to stack sizes and there is still plenty of time to put yourself in greater +ev positions. The only way I would make this call would be if i was sure I could use the extra 10k chips to push the table around to my advantage.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Given how far you are from the bubble, I think this is a pretty straightforward call.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

There's so much play in the WSOP you will have plenty of better spots than a 53/47 edge.

On the other hand, if you had 6 BB, this is a call.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

I call. I also think that all but the very best players in the world should call here(but I think many of them would).

In a 6000 person field, variance is no longer a bad thing. If we are taking factors like "I flew out to vegas, I want to play for a few hours" into consideration, then go ahead and fold. If you are trying to maximize $$. You have to call.

The fact that there may be higher CEV spots to put your money in later is pretty irrelevant, and if anything argues for a call. Its not like you need to get to 20,000 chips then you win, take all +CEV situations.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Very easy call there. I think a more interesting question is would you take an exactly 50/50 shot for your whole stack on the first hand. I think I say yes to that, too, but I'm not positive.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]
I fold. I can't risk my tournament life with pocket two's. I folded them in LP in an unraised pot usually.

[/ QUOTE ]

What a non sensical thing to say. If the cards were reversed, could you risk your tournament life with AKo? What about 7h8h in the BB versus and open push of 2c2s and all fold to you?

Also, this is not a situation where you only know your hand and the action, you have perfect information here.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]
Very easy call there. I think a more interesting question is would you take an exactly 50/50 shot for your whole stack on the first hand. I think I say yes to that, too, but I'm not positive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the skill advantage would have to HUGE (which for me it isnt) for me to pass up a pure coin flip. The only factor that really matters here is 6000 runners, it totally overwhelms everything else.

10,000 chips, 500 runners, I fold a pure coin flip, but still call 22 vs AK

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I fold. I can't risk my tournament life with pocket two's. I folded them in LP in an unraised pot usually.

[/ QUOTE ]

What a non sensical thing to say. If the cards were reversed, could you risk your tournament life with AKo? What about 7h8h in the BB versus and open push of 2c2s and all fold to you?

Also, this is not a situation where you only know your hand and the action, you have perfect information here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Almost as nonsensical as "are you better than 53% of the field" from earlier in the thread.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs. A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is a 50/50 shot.

AK [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is 50.01
22 black is 49.99

Check it out.

EDIT:ooops, A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], not A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
The ducks are 53/47 favorites.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Damn!!!! Now I wont have a bad beat story to tell

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

There are a number of different issues here. Are you trying to maximize your chance of winning the tournament (every dollar is equal), maximize your expected winnings (dollars you lose hurt more than dollars you win help) or have a good run and maybe play against some champions (dollars you lose hurt much more than dollars you win help)? As people have mentioned, do you think you're better (avoid risk) or worse (love risk) than the field.

To simplify, assume you're average and want to maximize your probability of winning. It would take 12.5 all-in bets to win a tournament of 6,000 people. Getting 53% chances instead of 50% more than doubles your chances of winning, from 1 in 6,000 to 1 in 2,888. As an average player, you don't expect to get better than 50% odds for your average all-in bet; so you grab this one.

Of course, you won't win the tournament doing nothing but all-in bets (although it's an interesting strategy to try). But I don't think that matters much in a long tournament. As an average player, you can evaluate each opportunity with "if I did this every hand until I won the tournament, what would be my chances of winning?"

If you think you have better than 1 chance in 2,888 of winning the tournament after folding this hand, you should fold. You don't have to think you're the world's greatest player, just that you can hold your own against the best and can win consistently against the average. My guess is there are about 500 guys (some of them are gals, of course) who have better odds than this of winning the WSOP. You should also fold if you care about maximizing your dollar winnings or avoiding the embarassment of being the first guy eliminated.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]
You should also fold if you care about maximizing your dollar winnings or avoiding the embarassment of being the first guy eliminated.

[/ QUOTE ]

On the other hand, if you think you have no chance of winning/cashing and just want to be able to tell your friends that you were the chip leader of the WSOP (if only for a moment), you should definitely call. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Its an easy fold for just about everyone.

All these stupid questions boil down to "How much risk are you willing to take for how much reward". This is a highly personal and subjective question.

Whether you are Greg Raymer, or an Internet wanna-be, if you went to the WSOP you love to play poker, and the possibility of only playing 1 hand in a 5 day event, cannot be offset by the possibility of winning a 50/50 coin toss.

Not to mention your wife will beat you like a drum.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]
All these stupid questions boil down to "How much risk are you willing to take for how much reward". This is a highly personal and subjective question.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a subjective question, assuming you're playing to win money. There's a correct answer. Just because it depends on numbers that are very hard to calculate doesn't mean it's not an objectively determineable thing.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]
Its an easy fold for just about everyone.

All these stupid questions boil down to "How much risk are you willing to take for how much reward". This is a highly personal and subjective question.

Whether you are Greg Raymer, or an Internet wanna-be, if you went to the WSOP you love to play poker, and the possibility of only playing 1 hand in a 5 day event, cannot be offset by the possibility of winning a 50/50 coin toss.

Not to mention your wife will beat you like a drum.

[/ QUOTE ]


if 2/3s of the field knew how badly they played deep stacked poker, they would, and should, take even the AKo end of this proposition.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

They (we) do know, and that is the reason they shouldn't take either end of the proposition.

TEV(T20,000) ~= TEV(T10,000) >>> zero

For most players the expected return on the tournament is about the same whether they have 10,000 chips or 20,000 chips, and it is much much greater than their expected return for zero chips.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

I'm gonna fold, I don't wanna get knocked out on a 53% chance, that means 47% of the time I am out in 1 hand.

As for that 'I can't risk it all with pocket 2s' reply, would it make you feel better if it were QQ? Still gonna be the same odds. It's the 53-47 part I don't like, if I'm gonna push 1st hand I want to be at least a 2-1 favorite.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]
TEV(T20,000) ~= TEV(T10,000) >>> zero

[/ QUOTE ]
I totally disagree with and don't see how you came up with this statement.

In a HU SnG with no rake, the "are you better than your opponent" question comes into play more, as you would call this in a heartbeat against a better player but against a much worse player (and there are deep stacks in the SnG), it might be correct to fold. Of course there are timeEV considerations as well, so it becomes a very difficult question.

Another factor is that in the WSOP, because the structure is only so slow (and not incredibly slow), (and because of the size of the field? yes/no?), the luck factor is up there. If instead the tournament were a six month long ordeal with an incredibly slow structure, such that luck is much less of a factor in future occurences in the tournament, would it still be correct to call here? Of course then it would depend entirely on your skill against the rest of the field, but let's say that you are on average exactly even with every other player.

About the exact 50/50 shot, I believe this would be a call as well. I think it would be great to have a shot at a double chip stack and a chance to get some nice variance under my belt in addition to the ability to have everyone at my table covered instantly.

If I call and lose, that's poker but I'm going to make every choice I can to maximize my cashEV, that is my goal here.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]
All these stupid questions boil down to "How much risk are you willing to take for how much reward". This is a highly personal and subjective question.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming that you are neither risk-averse nor risk-loving, but you do want to maximize the amount of money you make on average from this tournament. So, I really disagree with your statement.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[/ QUOTE ]
For most players the expected return on the tournament is about the same whether they have 10,000 chips or 20,000 chips, and it is much much greater than their expected return for zero chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that is just mathematically untrue.

This is a common mistake that people make when attempting to quantify situations with a very high cost/benefit and a very low frequency.

Yes, someone with an average skill level will not make the money in 90% of the WSOP events they play, it is easy to say that someone with 20,000 chips who has a .02% higher of a chance to make the money has "the same expected value", but its not true. With an insanely deep event like this, doubling your stack "feels" the same in terms of $EV b/c you still have so much further to go, but increasing your chances of winning by apx .02% does in fact double your $EV b/c the payout is so large.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a common mistake that people make when attempting to quantify situations with a very high cost/benefit and a very low frequency.

Yes, someone with an average skill level will not make the money in 90% of the WSOP events they play, it is easy to say that someone with 20,000 chips who has a .02% higher of a chance to make the money has "the same expected value", but its not true. With an insanely deep event like this, doubling your stack "feels" the same in terms of $EV b/c you still have so much further to go, but increasing your chances of winning by apx .02% does in fact double your $EV b/c the payout is so large.

[/ QUOTE ]

Still doesn't mean your going to win does it!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

EV SCHMEV I DON'T WANT TO GO BROKE

edit: spelled schmev wrong the first time [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

ok, I'm done....

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Instead of us repeating this type of thing for the 150th time.

Early edges

another

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Good links.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Chip count is a bad proxy for $EV early in a tournament. The average player has 400XBB, and the difference in number of BB has no consequence because by the time 1/2 the field is eliminated and T20,000 is the average stack, you will still be one of 3000 players with an average stack, a long way from the money.

Don't kid yourself. You're still going to have to play some outstanding poker, and get lucky to make the money. You don't need 800XBB to bully the table.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]
Instead of us repeating this type of thing for the 150th time.

Early edges

another

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I didn't realize this had been so thoroughly discussed already (doh).

[ QUOTE ]
That's not what I've said. I've said I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early.

[/ QUOTE ]
Cool quote from Paul Phillips.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]
by the time 1/2 the field is eliminated and T20,000 is the average stack, you will still be one of 3000 players with an average stack, a long way from the money.

[/ QUOTE ]
You will be taking more calculated risks during that time.

Saying that 10Kchip.cashEV ~= 20Kchip.cashEV is pretty absurd IMO.

Comparing the difference marginal utility of each extra chip in doubling up now, to say that of when you have an average stack with 200 remaining, or 2000, or when you have a monster stack with 3000 remaining could get us somewhere though.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

"You will be taking more calculated risks during that time. "

I wouldn't. You can speak for yourself though. Having 800XBB is not going to affect my willingness to go into my stack anymore than having 400XBB.

Anyhow, this thread is a waste of time. See my original post. It's not about the money. When most players plunk down 10K for chips it is a huge EV-- activity. Unless you like losing money, you are deriving the satisfaction from playing.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]
"You will be taking more calculated risks during that time. "

I wouldn't. You can speak for yourself though. Having 800XBB is not going to affect my willingness to go into my stack anymore than having 400XBB.

Anyhow, this thread is a waste of time. See my original post. It's not about the money. When most players plunk down 10K for chips it is a huge EV-- activity. Unless you like losing money, you are deriving the satisfaction from playing.

[/ QUOTE ]

that's a great point. I'm quite sure that this is one of the huge reasons that big buy in event regulars are able to accumulate stacks on day 1 much better than people who are there for an activity.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

that's a really good point, but should be irrelevant on a poker strategy website. It is infact the anti-thesis of optimal strategy to be playing for any goal other then maximizing EV, and Soss is right insomuch as it allows an even greater edge to those willing to play an optimal (or as close as possible to theoretically optimal) style.

Point: the posts you're making are valid, but they should be in the psyhcology forum, here we're trying to determine the highest $EV play on every hand. As said earlier in the thread, the variables are difficult to quantify, however they do infact exist. Statements like 20k chips =~ 10k chips, is useless as it's backed up by no demonstatable evidence.

If you read some other posts linked to here, there is sound math, and if you read any game theory/deeper mathmatical theoretic work, you'll realize that all other things being equal doubling your chips exactly doubles your EV in a pure lotto situation, the key is determining how poker is different from a pure lotto and how those differences influence the theoretically optimal play.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Easy fold for me.

1) If (when) I play in the main event, I will be doing so hoping to get some play, soI don't want to go home yet.

2) I don't play a big stack very well. If I was one of those guys who could take a stack that was double that of everyone else at the table and use it to keep clubbing them over the head, then I would lean more towards taking the gamble.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

[ QUOTE ]

If you read some other posts linked to here, there is sound math, and if you read any game theory/deeper mathmatical theoretic work, you'll realize that all other things being equal doubling your chips exactly doubles your EV in a pure lotto situation, the key is determining how poker is different from a pure lotto and how those differences influence the theoretically optimal play.


[/ QUOTE ]

We agree that all things are not equal.

And that makes all your game theoretical nonsense worthless.
The average player has an TEV (T10,000) <<< $5,000 since 100% of the prize goes to 10% of the finishers. We assume that there is some correlation between ability and performance, but this is based on metrics that we can't measure. However the historical evidence is pretty compelling.

Is TEV(T20,000) > 2 x TEV(T10,000) for an average player? Who knows. But TEV(T20,000) <<< $10,000 for an average player.