Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Good links.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Chip count is a bad proxy for $EV early in a tournament. The average player has 400XBB, and the difference in number of BB has no consequence because by the time 1/2 the field is eliminated and T20,000 is the average stack, you will still be one of 3000 players with an average stack, a long way from the money.

Don't kid yourself. You're still going to have to play some outstanding poker, and get lucky to make the money. You don't need 800XBB to bully the table.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

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Instead of us repeating this type of thing for the 150th time.

Early edges

another

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Thanks, I didn't realize this had been so thoroughly discussed already (doh).

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That's not what I've said. I've said I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early.

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Cool quote from Paul Phillips.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

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by the time 1/2 the field is eliminated and T20,000 is the average stack, you will still be one of 3000 players with an average stack, a long way from the money.

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You will be taking more calculated risks during that time.

Saying that 10Kchip.cashEV ~= 20Kchip.cashEV is pretty absurd IMO.

Comparing the difference marginal utility of each extra chip in doubling up now, to say that of when you have an average stack with 200 remaining, or 2000, or when you have a monster stack with 3000 remaining could get us somewhere though.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

"You will be taking more calculated risks during that time. "

I wouldn't. You can speak for yourself though. Having 800XBB is not going to affect my willingness to go into my stack anymore than having 400XBB.

Anyhow, this thread is a waste of time. See my original post. It's not about the money. When most players plunk down 10K for chips it is a huge EV-- activity. Unless you like losing money, you are deriving the satisfaction from playing.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

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"You will be taking more calculated risks during that time. "

I wouldn't. You can speak for yourself though. Having 800XBB is not going to affect my willingness to go into my stack anymore than having 400XBB.

Anyhow, this thread is a waste of time. See my original post. It's not about the money. When most players plunk down 10K for chips it is a huge EV-- activity. Unless you like losing money, you are deriving the satisfaction from playing.

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that's a great point. I'm quite sure that this is one of the huge reasons that big buy in event regulars are able to accumulate stacks on day 1 much better than people who are there for an activity.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

that's a really good point, but should be irrelevant on a poker strategy website. It is infact the anti-thesis of optimal strategy to be playing for any goal other then maximizing EV, and Soss is right insomuch as it allows an even greater edge to those willing to play an optimal (or as close as possible to theoretically optimal) style.

Point: the posts you're making are valid, but they should be in the psyhcology forum, here we're trying to determine the highest $EV play on every hand. As said earlier in the thread, the variables are difficult to quantify, however they do infact exist. Statements like 20k chips =~ 10k chips, is useless as it's backed up by no demonstatable evidence.

If you read some other posts linked to here, there is sound math, and if you read any game theory/deeper mathmatical theoretic work, you'll realize that all other things being equal doubling your chips exactly doubles your EV in a pure lotto situation, the key is determining how poker is different from a pure lotto and how those differences influence the theoretically optimal play.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

Easy fold for me.

1) If (when) I play in the main event, I will be doing so hoping to get some play, soI don't want to go home yet.

2) I don't play a big stack very well. If I was one of those guys who could take a stack that was double that of everyone else at the table and use it to keep clubbing them over the head, then I would lean more towards taking the gamble.

Re: Hypothetical situation, would like some discussion
 

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If you read some other posts linked to here, there is sound math, and if you read any game theory/deeper mathmatical theoretic work, you'll realize that all other things being equal doubling your chips exactly doubles your EV in a pure lotto situation, the key is determining how poker is different from a pure lotto and how those differences influence the theoretically optimal play.


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We agree that all things are not equal.

And that makes all your game theoretical nonsense worthless.
The average player has an TEV (T10,000) <<< $5,000 since 100% of the prize goes to 10% of the finishers. We assume that there is some correlation between ability and performance, but this is based on metrics that we can't measure. However the historical evidence is pretty compelling.

Is TEV(T20,000) > 2 x TEV(T10,000) for an average player? Who knows. But TEV(T20,000) <<< $10,000 for an average player.