Bullsh*t Equity?
 

If I have the nuts on the river and I'm last to act, I will occasionally raise all-in with a humongous overbet.

I know it's generally a bad idea to 'make moves' at the SSNL tables, but if my opponent and I each have $30, and I think there is more than a 1 in 10 chance he'll call, it should be more profitable (long-term) for me to hurl out the $30 ridiculoso bet than for me to cough up the $3 value bet:

(1 call /10 hands) @ $30/call = $30 per 10 hands

(9 calls /10 hands) @ $3/call = $27 per 10 hands

(And this is with the generous assumption that he'll call the $3 value-bet 9 out of 10 times.)

The name 'Bullshit Equity' comes from the unnecessary and often reckless level of doubt cast upon overbets at these low-lim tables.

Sometimes I'll open with the all-in bet from EP, too...if I think the chances of him BS-calling my nuts are worth it.

Am I wasting easy value-calls? What about my table image - am I damaging it or somehow helping it [by potentially conveying myself as reckless]?

Sorry if this topic is old and stale/Thanks for feedback.

J CHaaahaahaaaap

Re: Bullsh*t Equity?
 

Reasoning is fine if those are the numbers you assign. Just be careful about justifying your action because you think he will 1/10th of the time. Is it 1/10 or more like 1/20-1/30?

Re: Bullsh*t Equity?
 

Value bets > Bullshit bets in the long term.

I really think 'Bullshit Equity' should only be used against particular opponents.

Re: Bullsh*t Equity?
 

I think you must adapt that to the opponent. Against some types of players you will not get a call in 1/100. And the image aspect is not that great. How often a session do you actually have the nuts at the river?

Re: Bullsh*t Equity?
 

I guess I can check my stats on this, but it certainly seems like, if anything, more than 1 in 10 times.

And yes - I agree about certain opponents - not just the opponents themselves but the situational history between them and myself.

If I've dealt them some bad beats, (or if they've dealt me bad beats), then there might be an increased level of animosity or whatever. All of this goes into the pot of them wanting to get into big hands with me.

But yes, of course, those numbers have to be somewhat accurate for my thoughts to be true.

I think they are...