River Decision
 

Hey all,

$1BBNL. 6-max

CO ($140) limps to me ($160) in SB, with AQo, I raise to $4, he calls.

FLOP: ($9) Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I pot, he calls. Villain is pretty new to me. He is not passive, nor overly aggressive in the few oribts I am sitting.

TURN: ($27):Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I figure him for maybe a PP, flush draw or Tx as I see just about anything out of the players at this site. As I bet $20, I consider it (a) a value bet vs a Tx hand (b) forcing him to make a mistake with a PP or flush draw as well.

RIVER: ($67)Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Now what?

More to follow.

jw

Re: River Decision
 

Value bet and without reads that villain gets out of line fold to a raise.

Re: River Decision
 

I hate the villains limp call from CO preflop. I hate his calling station line all the way. I hate the board pairing on the river. I hate betting 1/2 the pot on the end having no clue what villain has but I do it anyway.

Villain might have called down on a draw in which case they all missed. Calling with 2nd pair seems too odd for a player who hasn't caught our eye already. My guess is another Q with a weaker kicker is his most likely hand.

I'm betting for value against any other Q.

Re: River Decision
 

Thanks guys.

Few more replies?

Re: River Decision
 

I often check/call here. KsJs is a likely hand that might bluff but obviously won't call a bet. Any spade draw or straight draw might bluff but won't bet. You didn't mention whether or not you had the ace of spades. If you do, bet/fold might be better as the nut draw is no longer a possible holding for your opponent.

Re: River Decision
 

Great point Ghaz. I think I play this even a bit more agg. with the As in my hand.

I did not, however, have a single spade.

I really like the check call here better than leading out for value.

Leading for value might be called by a weaker Q, but mostly will only result in being called (or raised) by a stronger hand, no?

It seems as if most so far have recommended leading out for value.

No one has really mentioned how much to value bet for. Too small = smells weak, too big only wastes chips if behind.

More thoughts?

jw

I'd

Re: River Decision
 

I don't mind a check call as long as you are comfortable calling villain's all-in. If you value bet and a better hand calls you probably saved money. A value bet of $35 probably works.

Both of these options can be right, but it is read dependent. If villain is LAGgy and you have seen him bluff and bet his draws then a check/call probably gets you the most money. If villian is loose-weak he will call a value bet with his Qx but would prefer to check it down. Make your read and go with it.

Re: River Decision
 

Ok,

I elected to value bet for $35, villain pushes.

Re: River Decision
 

...villain pushes...

so the hero?

Re: River Decision
 

[ QUOTE ]
...villain pushes...

so the hero?

[/ QUOTE ]
wishes he hadn't bet?

Seriously, though, you go with your read. On the river, there's no more drawing to catch up; you're either ahead or not. If you think there are enough hands he might do this with that you are beating (weaker queen, missed draw bluff, whatever) for it to be profitable compared to the number of hands that crush you he might do it with, you call; if not, you fold.

Most people don't bluffraise missed draws on the end so you're probably screwed and should fold. However, the more interesting thing you should take away from this is how much cheaper it (likely) would've been to check call and you'd get to see the showdown for roughly the same price you got by betting.