How long before you second guess yourself.
 

I've been playing for a living for a little over 2 years, mostly live. Expenses, expenses, bad money management and expenses forced me to start from scratch last January. Since then I've been playing mostly online. I finally got myself up to 5/10 about 6-8 weeks ago and began making $40-50/hr. I think I've been running a little to well for most of that time. Occasionally losing over a grand at a time, but usually making it back within 30 hours or even the same session sometimes.

But now those convenient upswings have dissappeared. I don't even make small wins anymore. I'm down about $1000 for the last 8 days (6-9k hands). The volume doesnt concern me so much as the duration.

I'm getting very concerned and today in just 450 hands I've lost $450! My bankroll isn't in danger, but how much longer can I let this go on?

-It's never a bad beat when the better player wins-

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

$1000 is only 100 BB at 5/10. So you are not losing much at all, based on that info. Although if you don't know that swings like this are completely standard I don't see how you could have been playing poker professionally for 2 years.

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

Breaking even, or much worse for that matter, isnt a big deal over 10k hands. Although if its screwing with your mind just drop down in stakes for a while.

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

downswings happen all of the time. 100BB drops are commonplace. I would think that you would have experienced this by now. I also play for a living (but i suck). here is a graph of my last 45K hands.

http://img230.imageshack.us/img230/7264/441sc.jpg

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

Bob,

How many hands do you have total for which you are a winner? I think it's dangerous to write off a 45K hand break even streak as variance. Of course it could be, but it's usually not.

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

It's not uncommon to go two years or longer without any major downswings when playing LIVE because

(1) you're playing a smaller number of hands, so you can avoid hitting the extreme negative forms of variance for quite a while
(2) depending where you play, the opponents can be so bad that your winrate is quite high, which decreases the amount of one's downswings (in terms of BBs lost on an absolute scale) -- much of a downswing against horrible opponents is simply earning less than you normally would.

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

[ QUOTE ]


(2) depending where you play, the opponents can be so bad that your winrate is quite high, which decreases the amount of one's downswings (in terms of BBs lost on an absolute scale) -- much of a downswing against horrible opponents is simply earning less than you normally would.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a somewhat valid point, but still the opponents would have to be really horrible. I mean, you'd have to be rounding at The Normandie. Even a 3 or 4 BB/100 will experience downswings over 10K hands.

[ QUOTE ]
(1) you're playing a smaller number of hands, so you can avoid hitting the extreme negative forms of variance for quite a while

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what you mean this.

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

Nov. was my best month to date. BB/100 of 1.50 over 80K hands. However, it included 3 breakeven streaks of 18K, 14K, and 9K hands. October I ran 45K hands to -500 BBs. The next 35K hands let me finish +100BBs on the month. This is the nature of the game. 10K hands is nothing. 45K hands is something, but from the way he comes across Bob is a Pro, so he knows this. OP is clearly not a pro, but perhaps he can become one with work. 10K hands? Give me a break.

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bob,

How many hands do you have total for which you are a winner? I think it's dangerous to write off a 45K hand break even streak as variance. Of course it could be, but it's usually not.

[/ QUOTE ]

My last 45K is from Oct. 1 (I played a lot live after the Party split.) The graph below is March-Sept.

http://img221.imageshack.us/img221/4010/all7cl.jpg

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

196K hands is short term variance. Anyone can run well over that few hands.

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

[ QUOTE ]
196K hands is short term variance. Anyone can run well over that few hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. at what point is it no longer short team variance?

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nov. was my best month to date. BB/100 of 1.50 over 80K hands. However, it included 3 breakeven streaks of 18K, 14K, and 9K hands. October I ran 45K hands to -500 BBs. The next 35K hands let me finish +100BBs on the month. This is the nature of the game. 10K hands is nothing. 45K hands is something, but from the way he comes across Bob is a Pro, so he knows this. OP is clearly not a pro, but perhaps he can become one with work. 10K hands? Give me a break.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, it happens, but a 45K breakeven streak is rare for a 1.5BB winner. Assuming an SD of 17, this will happen only about 3% of the time. Anecdotal evidence is not the way to look at these things.

Having said that, 10K is not too signnifcant.

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

Hey Bob,

Nice graph. I actually didnt really doubt that you were a long term winner. I still think you shouldnt write of a streak like that. It's highly likely you werent at the top of your game. Anyway, that's my philosophy for my own downswings.

gm

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Bob,

Nice graph. I actually didnt really doubt that you were a long term winner. I still think you shouldnt write of a streak like that. It's highly likely you werent at the top of your game. Anyway, that's my philosophy for my own downswings.


[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. i am clearly making some errors and have had friends sweat/ discuss hands with me. the line between bad luck and bad play often gets hazy. i hate that.

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

[ QUOTE ]
196K hands is short term variance. Anyone can run well over that few hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
196K hands is short term variance. Anyone can run well over that few hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he was kidding. (at least I hope so)

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
196K hands is short term variance. Anyone can run well over that few hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling Capt. Obvious? Capt. Obvious are you there?

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Bob,

Nice graph. I actually didnt really doubt that you were a long term winner. I still think you shouldnt write of a streak like that. It's highly likely you werent at the top of your game. Anyway, that's my philosophy for my own downswings.

gm

[/ QUOTE ]

People who have that philosophy generally haven't been exposed to back breaking bad luck. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I personally count myself as the unluckiest son of a bitch alive these days.

To OP. Hahaha...

Krishan

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hey Bob,

Nice graph. I actually didnt really doubt that you were a long term winner. I still think you shouldnt write of a streak like that. It's highly likely you werent at the top of your game. Anyway, that's my philosophy for my own downswings.


[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. i am clearly making some errors and have had friends sweat/ discuss hands with me. the line between bad luck and bad play often gets hazy. i hate that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to think the same thing, but I am also in a 45K breakeven streak. I have been at 1.8/100 for 120K hands before that and now I can just not string together any good wins. It really is amazing how long this can last. I always thought that tilt/bad play has to filter in somehow but now I just don't know. There is no doubt that I make many mistakes but if anything my play has gotten better and my number of mistakes has to be fewer. It is just phenomenal how bad my opponents play and that I can't beat them anymore.

FWIW anecdotally, I know several very good players who have told me to be thankful because their 45k coldstreak resulted in -400BB instead of break even.

Re: How long before you second guess yourself.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


(2) depending where you play, the opponents can be so bad that your winrate is quite high, which decreases the amount of one's downswings (in terms of BBs lost on an absolute scale) -- much of a downswing against horrible opponents is simply earning less than you normally would.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a somewhat valid point, but still the opponents would have to be really horrible. I mean, you'd have to be rounding at The Normandie. Even a 3 or 4 BB/100 will experience downswings over 10K hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

You'd be surprised how long it is realistically possible to go without a downswing when your winrate is that high. Of course, many big winners will experience a downswing over the two years. But that doesn't mean it is impossible or even terribly difficult to run well enough to avoid a downswing for a long period of time, especially if you aren't playing very many hands per hour (see below)...

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
(1) you're playing a smaller number of hands, so you can avoid hitting the extreme negative forms of variance for quite a while

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea what you mean this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't word this well, but the basic point is that you only play about 30 hands an hour playing live. So if he played 40 hours a week, 50 weeks a year, for two years, he would have played about 4000 hours, so about 120,000 hands. Is it possible for a player who is crushing a game to go 120K hands without a downswing of more than ~100 BB? I would think it is very possible.

I started playing online at 0.5/1 limits, and I didn't experience my first 100 BB downswing until I had moved up until 3/6, which was after some 40K or so hands of play. If the level of competition he is playing against is roughly of the caliber of 0.5/1 - 3/6 players, then it wouldn't be shocking that he didn't suffer any 100+ BB downswings during his two years of live play, though it would admittedly be a matter of running good.