PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

Sorry I'm missing the full hand history, but here's the pokerhand equity comparison:

Flop - Kh 4c Tc

Cards:
4s Ad Ah 8h scoop-313 HIwin-356 LOwin-27 EV-.423
3s 5c 2c 4h scoop-440 HIwin-464 LOwin-179 EV-.577

Without getting too much into the context of the hand, I raised PF in EP with the AAxx, got heads up vs LAG button, potted flop, and was put all in by LAG holding the wheel cards.

When I ran the equity comparison, I was surprised to see how potent his hand was, considering there's only 1 low card on the flop - is his flush draw really that powerful?

If I were the LAG button playing against the EP raiser (and pegged EP on AAxx), I probably wouldn't put him all-in in this spot since I'd never guess I'm almost 60/40 with only one low card on the board. Am I missing something here?

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

Off the cuff estimate. A little less than 40% equity is the flush draw, his runner/runner low has to be at least 7-10%, and he has 4 more outs than you to make a hand (2 pair) bigger than yours. That is another 15% or so, plus he has straight draws. What is killing your equity is that you have so few cards that will improve your hand.

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

I agree with mendacious. You are essentially looking for the board to pair for u 2 have ur high 2 pair. If I put someone on AA and dont think that they have the Ac or a flush draw then heads up this is worth-while to take. He has a ton of outs to improve and beat you. Side note: I dont like being the first one raising EP with AAxx, you're out of position and people can peg you on having AAxx, which is always a significant disadvantage.

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

EV isn't all that should be looked at when you're playing pot limit

despite equity, all the draws for hand #2 suck and it's never clear where you stand.

that simulator can't take into account the # of times you get moved off your 5 high flush, among other things

interesting post for limit O/8 maybe though

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

Trader - Very interesting.

I thought you must have copied something incorrectly and so I ran the same hands using Wilson.
flop...Kh4cTc
auto stop point...10000 deals
hand.........high..low...scoop..total
4sAdAh8h...288...145...3812...4245
3s5c2c4h....145...288...5322...5755

Best high hands on river:
hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h
pair...........4026..........1542
two pair......3988..........3542
trips..........1213...........359
straight.........0...........460
flush...........435..........3839
full house.....327...........229
quads............11.............0
total.........10000.........10000

Winning high hands:
hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h
pair............845.............0
two pair......2285..........1273
trips...........485.............0
straight.........0...........403
flush...........435..........3672
full house.....327...........229
quads............11.............0
total..........4388..........5577

Losing high hands:
hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h
pair...........3181..........1542
two pair......1703..........2269
trips...........728...........359
straight.........0............51
flush.............0...........167
full house.......0.............0
quads.............0.............0
total..........5612..........4388

Looking it over, yes it was the baby flush draw that pushed 3s5c2c4h ahead of 4sAdAh8h in the high wins category.

My ratio, using Wilson, is 5755/4245 = 1.356,
not quite the same as 577/423 = 1.364, but close. I'd get a different ratio if I ran the same sim again using Wilson, because of the random deal way Wilson accumulates the data. Might be a bit higher than your ratio next time. Or if I made the auto stop point 100,000 instead of 10,000 the ratio would probably be closer to 1.364. Whatever.

The power of the baby flush draw!

At any rate, who'd have thunk it? [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Buzz

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

I see the AAxx hand suited in hearts with an A-hi draw
I see the 2345 hand suited in clubs with a 5-hi draw
Then i see the 5-hi flush winning in flushes way more often.
something doesn't make sense to me here

and why does the AA4x hand make 0 straights in 10,000 hands -- you are never ever dealt 2,3,5 by river?

-g

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

[ QUOTE ]
I see the AAxx hand suited in hearts with an A-hi draw
I see the 2345 hand suited in clubs with a 5-hi draw
Then i see the 5-hi flush winning in flushes way more often.
something doesn't make sense to me here

and why does the AA4x hand make 0 straights in 10,000 hands -- you are never ever dealt 2,3,5 by river?

-g

[/ QUOTE ]

The flop has already been specified: Kh4cTc. This is why the 5 high flush is winning so much more than the heart flush and it is impossible at this point for a 235 to end up on the board.

Correction
 

Rats! Will I never stop making these stupid little errors?

I wrote

Winning high hands:
hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h
pair............845.............0
two pair......2285..........1273
trips...........485.............0
straight.........0...........403
flush...........435..........3672
full house.....327...........229
quads............11.............0
total..........4388..........5577

Change that to
Winning high hands:
hand.........4sAdAh8h......3s5c2c4h
pair............845.............0
two pair......2285..........1273
trips...........485.............0
straight.........0...........40<font color="red">9</font>
flush...........435..........3672
full house.....327...........229
quads............11.............0
<font color="red">straight flush...0.............29</font>
total..........4388..........<font color="red">5612</font>

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

[ QUOTE ]
something doesn't make sense to me here

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg - Good eyes. Thanks.

I've corrected my error.

Sorry.

Buzz

Re: PLO8 Surprising flop equity comparison
 

What kind of equity does the 5 4 3 2 hand based off of the straight possibilities alone?