Lets talk Baseball...
 

Todays action... LAA @ +235 seems like the only way to play that game. NY should be about -150 IMO. The Chicago line looks about right to me. Slight edge taking Chicago IMO.

For those of us that got Chicago for the series, is a +390 hedge the play?

What about LAA +180 for the series?


REACT TO ME [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Lets talk Baseball...
 

Todays lines are seriously whacked. They are what I call "playoff" lines. The books are totally loaded on Bos and NYY futures bets. They would like nothing more than to see both of these teams lose today. When/if these teams finally get eliminated they breathe a sigh of relief and count their futures profits.

So what do they do? They pay us to bet on Chicago and LA today. The lines are laughable and possibly two of the biggest edge lines of the season. Anybody on the fav side of these lines doesn't understand value in the least. I really like the runlines too!

Re: Lets talk Baseball...
 

Im going big on LAA +235, so much value it's oozing all the over the place. Angels win, I might retire [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Lets talk Baseball...
 

Why do you see Chicago as such a huge edge play? I had it as -130 before I looked.

Re: Lets talk Baseball...
 

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Why do you see Chicago as such a huge edge play?

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They are +158. They should be favored. Bos best home record but Chi best road record. Garcia a better pitcher and his best splits are day games and road games. The line is completely and utterly ludicrous. Even money to slight Chicago edge is fair. Chicago at +158 is insane!

Re: Lets talk Baseball...
 

Pick em ? I'm with you on Chicago but not as bullish [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

How about my Chi/LAA parlay @ 8-1 [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: Lets talk Baseball...
 

i got Angels and Chi-Sox today.
One unit on the moneyline, and one on the run.
gl all

Re: Lets talk Baseball...
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Why do you see Chicago as such a huge edge play?

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They are +158. They should be favored. Bos best home record but Chi best road record. Garcia a better pitcher and his best splits are day games and road games. The line is completely and utterly ludicrous. Even money to slight Chicago edge is fair. Chicago at +158 is insane!

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Yeah, but Wake is maybe the Red Sox best pitcher. Boston doesn't have a starter that can match up with any CWS starter. Garcia is at best the 3rd best CWS starter. Are you saying the CWS should be favored in EVERY game against the Red Sox?

Insane.

I repeat - it's not how good the pitchers are, it's how good they are COMPARED to the other starters on the team. At least you must do that if you want to completely ignore the 160 more runs the BoSox scored than the ChiSox (which I think is the easiest way to do this analysis).

I thought games 1 and 2 were good bets for CWS, but this one doesn't seem near as good IMO.

Re: Lets talk Baseball...
 

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For those of us that got Chicago for the series, is a +390 hedge the play?


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I wouldn't recommend it. The true line has to be at least +500 here, probably higher.

Re: Lets talk Baseball...
 

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I repeat - it's not how good the pitchers are, it's how good they are COMPARED to the other starters on the team

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Boston won 54% of Wakefields starts and Chicago won 60% of Garcia starts. On that comparison I like Chicago to win at least 40% of the time.