Re: math quiz
 

Yes, we do use the basic outline of it, and I do think about their hand range and I do use the simple calculations which you think about. But at the same time we usually have guidelines based on math that allow us to take shortcuts.

If we're getting 2 to 1 on a push with a hand like 66, we automatically assume we're getting close to the correct odds. Maybe in my post it comes off as if I'm saying we never use math, but all I'm saying is that we almost never think about it indepth at the table. Even our discussion of it here is tainted because we don't have the adrenaline rush that we have at the table.

Re: math quiz
 

And the more math you do like this, the more practice you get, the more decisions become automatic, like the 66 w/ 2:1 odds.

i forgot where iw as going with this, because i got distracted. But anyway. Yea.. practice makes the harder decisions more automatic.

Re: math quiz
 

Very interesting. Trying to answer these as I would at the table, taking <15seconds

1. He must fold >64%
2a KQ, AT, 88
2b KJ, A6, 55
3 yes, 30%

-g

#1
 

I just want to say that for number 1, answers above 50% make no sense at all. If he goes all in, hero risks 4k to win 4k in the pot. If hero has no equity at all, villain needs to fold 50% of the time for moving all in to have a positive expectation. Since hero has equity, villain needs to fold less than 50% of the time.

If hero is a 4.9:1 dog, he has about 17% equity. So of the times that he is called, he will win 6k 17% of the time.

EV(calling) = EV(folding) where x equals the percentage of time villain folds and 1-x equals the percentage of time he calls

x (4000) + (1-x)(.17)(6000) + (1-x)(.83)(-4000) = 0
4000x + 1020 - 1020x - 3320 + 3320x = 0

6300x = 2300

x = 36.5%

You definitely don't need to do this calculation at the table, but if you're guessing like 70% that might be a leak. My first guess was 40% (a bit below 50).

Re: #1
 

For the first two, I made my initial guestimate, checked it out and was surprisingly close (I think). #3 I'm having a problem with though. My intial thought it that it's very close, but as I'm doing the math, I'm havin problems coming to an answer. The times that he has something like K5, there's a good chance of a split pot which is screwin me up. I'd like to know how to go about this one.