Math help for river three bet
 

Villian is 50/7 iver 200 hands.

Villian limps in the c/o. hero complets the sb with x9o, bb checks.
Flop, Qc, 9c, 2d.
Hero bets, BB folds, villian calls.
Turn 5s
Hero bets, villian calls.
River, 9s
Hero bets villian raises

What is the minimum x (non fullhouse) that i need to three bet this?

Re: Math help for river three bet
 

I vote J. That should make you enough of a favorite.

Re: Math help for river three bet
 

Bit of a tangent:
How often does he raise the river with 2pair when the board pairs on the river? I know some donks who do this. The more they do it, the more you should be inclined to 3ball them.

Re: Math help for river three bet
 

In my experience this is rarely (<2%) a Q,5 or a PP. its very usually a 9, occasionally a busted flush draw and sometimes a sloplayed 22 or 55.

Re: Math help for river three bet
 

I dont personally keep % on those things, its just if I notice someone do it a couple times, I try to make them stop by taking more of their money.

Re: Math help for river three bet
 

The 2% is just a guess- based upon how surprised i am when i call and get shown one just a pair, in this case very surprised. I fully expect to see a 9 here, any kicker is possible from this player. The most frequent "two pair" i see is a retarded AA.
anyway, there ought to be a specific X in my mind where i can three bet this otherwise dry board (no straight or flush gets there), but i am at a loss as to where to really start a good mathematical system. This is my biggest weakness.

Re: Math help for river three bet
 

J sounds good to me.