Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

Atlanta +3 +117 or Atlanta +3.5 -110 can be found presently at Pinny.

These are outstanding opportunities as this matchup is tailor-made for the Falcons. Atlanta should be able to run very successfully against this Bears team in the cold particularly to the right, which will open up the Vick boot. And the Bears will struggle against Atlanta resurging run defense. DeAngelo Hall will match up favorably with Mushin Muhammad and neutralize their only semi-threat.

This is a must-win for the Falcons and the Bears are in a QB controversy.

Take Atlanta now at this price.
If the price goes down because it looks like Vick might not play, buy more as the QB is not the reason the Falcons will win this game.

I may have an over-under pick later. If anything, I'd lean on the over at 31 or 31.5.

Edit: I also may have some good prop opportunities, particularly with Warrick Dunn.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense?

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
And the Bears will struggle against Atlanta resurging run defense.

[/ QUOTE ]

?

Wk 14 NO 125 yds rushing
Wk 13 Car 142 yds rushing
Wk 12 Det 75 yds rushing (5.5 yds/carry) because they were getting slaughtered
Wk 11 TB 140 yds rushing

This may sound like quibbling but if the Falcons can't stop the Bears run game your whole argument breaks down pretty easily.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

Do you understand the difference between the Steelers run blocking scheme and the Falcons? The Steelers were able to run the ball effectively after the field conditions started to deteriorate because they have a straight ahead blocking scheme where there goal is to stop the lineman in their tracks and drive them off of the line of scrimage. Before that there was some great play calling by the Steelers with screens and misdirection plays.

The Falcons blocking scheme is a zone which is most effective when the lineman are forced to move and they can cut the back side. It is very difficult to cut athletic lineman and line backers. This is the reason why the Falcons struggle vs. TB. The Bears are running the same defense.

If the Falcons win this game it will be because of the Bears poor tackling like last week or Vick being able to throw the ball very well on a cold windy night in Chicago.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do you understand the difference between the Steelers run blocking scheme and the Falcons? The Steelers were able to run the ball effectively after the field conditions started to deteriorate because they have a straight ahead blocking scheme where there goal is to stop the lineman in their tracks and drive them off of the line of scrimage. Before that there was some great play calling by the Steelers with screens and misdirection plays.

The Falcons blocking scheme is a zone which is most effective when the lineman are forced to move and they can cut the back side. It is very difficult to cut athletic lineman and line backers. This is the reason why the Falcons struggle vs. TB. The Bears are running the same defense.

If the Falcons win this game it will be because of the Bears poor tackling like last week or Vick being able to throw the ball very well on a cold windy night in Chicago.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make good points regarding the difference between the running styles. However, you forget that the Falcons have one more weapon at their disposal that Pittsburgh does not, and that is the Vick roll-out threat. This threat neutralizes the speed of fast backers and DEs. By the way, Atlanta ran effectively against the Bucs (150 yds) in their last game (150 yds). Against Carolina, the Panthers came in geared up (and it showed in last weeks game against the Bucs) and with a great game plan but Atlanta still gained 120 on the ground. They just didn't score TDs when they needed to. The other very key factor is that the Bears will be starting 2 non-starters (rookies I believe) at the 2 safety spots.

Just to clarify, I don't expect Atlanta to run for huge numbers against the Bears, but they should be able to control the game with the run. Any number of players on the Falcons on offense are difference makers (Vick, Dunn, Crumpler, Roddy White arguably); the Bears have none on offense themselves other than perhaps Muhummad. This game won't be easy by any stretch for the Falcons; but the price is right.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And the Bears will struggle against Atlanta resurging run defense.

[/ QUOTE ]

?

Wk 14 NO 125 yds rushing
Wk 13 Car 142 yds rushing
Wk 12 Det 75 yds rushing (5.5 yds/carry) because they were getting slaughtered
Wk 11 TB 140 yds rushing

This may sound like quibbling but if the Falcons can't stop the Bears run game your whole argument breaks down pretty easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you watch the games? At Carolina, yes they struggled against the run, but compared to their previous showings, they showed marked improvement -- and many of Carolina's running yards came in the 2nd half when Carolina was trying to move the clock. Against New Orleans, while the Falcons gave up a few big runs early in the game, they basically shut down the Saints completely in the 2nd half. Remember, this is a team that lost their middle linebacker before the last Saints game and subsequently gave up 200+ yds. This is also a team that has lost its starting right DE. The number of rookies or young players playing for the Falcons right now on defense is mindboggling. Only 5 starters from the beginning of the year are starting now in their same positions (Kerney, Coleman, Lavalais, D. Hall and Carpenter). D. Williams and Brooking have moved positions. Falcons are starting rookies at strong side LB and at right DE. They just demoted one of their safties for a better run-stopper (Ronnie Heard), and it showed in the Saints game. This run defense is NOT good, but it is getting better. And it is good enough to stop the Bears, especially given the lack of threats on the outside.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you understand the difference between the Steelers run blocking scheme and the Falcons? The Steelers were able to run the ball effectively after the field conditions started to deteriorate because they have a straight ahead blocking scheme where there goal is to stop the lineman in their tracks and drive them off of the line of scrimage. Before that there was some great play calling by the Steelers with screens and misdirection plays.

The Falcons blocking scheme is a zone which is most effective when the lineman are forced to move and they can cut the back side. It is very difficult to cut athletic lineman and line backers. This is the reason why the Falcons struggle vs. TB. The Bears are running the same defense.

If the Falcons win this game it will be because of the Bears poor tackling like last week or Vick being able to throw the ball very well on a cold windy night in Chicago.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make good points regarding the difference between the running styles. However, you forget that the Falcons have one more weapon at their disposal that Pittsburgh does not, and that is the Vick roll-out threat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I'm confused. I thought you said Vick wasn't going to matter in this game? The reason the line has dropped from -2.5 -115 to -3 -120 is because of Vick's health incidentally. If he is a factor as you're claiming now, the chance that he gets knocked out of the game makes this line move pretty smart.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And the Bears will struggle against Atlanta resurging run defense.

[/ QUOTE ]

?

Wk 14 NO 125 yds rushing
Wk 13 Car 142 yds rushing
Wk 12 Det 75 yds rushing (5.5 yds/carry) because they were getting slaughtered
Wk 11 TB 140 yds rushing

This may sound like quibbling but if the Falcons can't stop the Bears run game your whole argument breaks down pretty easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you watch the games? At Carolina, yes they struggled against the run, but compared to their previous showings, they showed marked improvement -- and many of Carolina's running yards came in the 2nd half when Carolina was trying to move the clock. Against New Orleans, while the Falcons gave up a few big runs early in the game, they basically shut down the Saints completely in the 2nd half. Remember, this is a team that lost their middle linebacker before the last Saints game and subsequently gave up 200+ yds. This is also a team that has lost its starting right DE. The number of rookies or young players playing for the Falcons right now on defense is mindboggling. Only 5 starters from the beginning of the year are starting now in their same positions (Kerney, Coleman, Lavalais, D. Hall and Carpenter). D. Williams and Brooking have moved positions. Falcons are starting rookies at strong side LB and at right DE. They just demoted one of their safties for a better run-stopper (Ronnie Heard), and it showed in the Saints game. This run defense is NOT good, but it is getting better. And it is good enough to stop the Bears, especially given the lack of threats on the outside.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a difference between "improved from bad" and "resurgent", I think that's all the previous poster and I are trying to point out.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you understand the difference between the Steelers run blocking scheme and the Falcons? The Steelers were able to run the ball effectively after the field conditions started to deteriorate because they have a straight ahead blocking scheme where there goal is to stop the lineman in their tracks and drive them off of the line of scrimage. Before that there was some great play calling by the Steelers with screens and misdirection plays.

The Falcons blocking scheme is a zone which is most effective when the lineman are forced to move and they can cut the back side. It is very difficult to cut athletic lineman and line backers. This is the reason why the Falcons struggle vs. TB. The Bears are running the same defense.

If the Falcons win this game it will be because of the Bears poor tackling like last week or Vick being able to throw the ball very well on a cold windy night in Chicago.

[/ QUOTE ]

You make good points regarding the difference between the running styles. However, you forget that the Falcons have one more weapon at their disposal that Pittsburgh does not, and that is the Vick roll-out threat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now I'm confused. I thought you said Vick wasn't going to matter in this game? The reason the line has dropped from -2.5 -115 to -3 -120 is because of Vick's health incidentally. If he is a factor as you're claiming now, the chance that he gets knocked out of the game makes this line move pretty smart.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes I'm assuming Vick's playing as of what I heard this morning. I would also suspect that the line will move "too" strongly if it turns out Schaub will play, in which case, there will still be value.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And the Bears will struggle against Atlanta resurging run defense.

[/ QUOTE ]

?

Wk 14 NO 125 yds rushing
Wk 13 Car 142 yds rushing
Wk 12 Det 75 yds rushing (5.5 yds/carry) because they were getting slaughtered
Wk 11 TB 140 yds rushing

This may sound like quibbling but if the Falcons can't stop the Bears run game your whole argument breaks down pretty easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you watch the games? At Carolina, yes they struggled against the run, but compared to their previous showings, they showed marked improvement -- and many of Carolina's running yards came in the 2nd half when Carolina was trying to move the clock. Against New Orleans, while the Falcons gave up a few big runs early in the game, they basically shut down the Saints completely in the 2nd half. Remember, this is a team that lost their middle linebacker before the last Saints game and subsequently gave up 200+ yds. This is also a team that has lost its starting right DE. The number of rookies or young players playing for the Falcons right now on defense is mindboggling. Only 5 starters from the beginning of the year are starting now in their same positions (Kerney, Coleman, Lavalais, D. Hall and Carpenter). D. Williams and Brooking have moved positions. Falcons are starting rookies at strong side LB and at right DE. They just demoted one of their safties for a better run-stopper (Ronnie Heard), and it showed in the Saints game. This run defense is NOT good, but it is getting better. And it is good enough to stop the Bears, especially given the lack of threats on the outside.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a difference between "improved from bad" and "resurgent", I think that's all the previous poster and I are trying to point out.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Resurgent" = wrong choice of words. Should be "improving"

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense?

[/ QUOTE ]

"Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right.
Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense?

[/ QUOTE ]

"Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right.
Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Bears are 7th in the league in rushing.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense?

[/ QUOTE ]

"Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right.
Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Bears are 7th in the league in rushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meaningless stat. They don't score.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense?

[/ QUOTE ]

"Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right.
Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Bears are 7th in the league in rushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meaningless stat. They don't score.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, they don't give up points either! lol Where is this whole argument going....basically what you're saying is the Bears will have their usual flat offensive game (14-17 per game, even though they're facing a sub-par defense, and at home) but the Falcons are going to score enough on the Bears to lose by 3 or win. I really don't see this at all and think you're underestimating the Bear defense.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK, I like the Bears. Resurging run defense?

[/ QUOTE ]

"Resurging" is wrong. "Improving" is right.
Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Bears are 7th in the league in rushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meaningless stat. They don't score.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, they don't give up points either! lol Where is this whole argument going....basically what you're saying is the Bears will have their usual flat offensive game (14-17 per game, even though they're facing a sub-par defense, and at home) but the Falcons are going to score enough on the Bears to lose by 3 or win. I really don't see this at all and think you're underestimating the Bear defense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorta...Really, based on the matchups as I see them, I think there is a good probability that Atlanta will score more than average against the Bears and there is a good probability that the Bears will score less than average against the Falcons. In general, the Bears defense, as evidenced by the the Pittsburgh game and as further supported by the fact that they've lost both starting safeties, is VASTLY overrated. Take a look at the teams they've dominated over the last 9 or 10 weeks. Other than Tampa or arguably Carolina, none of these teams are (or were at the time) a threat offensively. With a few exceptions (Carolina), Atlanta has shown that they can score. But for Atlanta's injuries, Atlanta would be considered a vastly superior team to the Bears. The fact is that Atlanta's injuries won't be much of a factor because Chicago doesn't have the talent offensively to exploit it.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

It's true the Bears have played a cake schedule, 27th overall according to the Sagarin's. But Atlanta's played the 30th toughest schedule so please man, look at both sides evenly. I haven't accused you of this before but there's far too much homer in the pick this time around.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

Part of the line comes from the fact that Atlanta has had one less day to prepare than Chicago.

I think everyone hears what you're saying about Chicago's poor offense and they agree. But they've still gotten 9 wins, they're 6-1 at home, they're #1 in defense and #7 in rushing offense.

Personally, I think the line is exactly where it should be.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's true the Bears have played a cake schedule, 27th overall according to the Sagarin's. But Atlanta's played the 30th toughest schedule so please man, look at both sides evenly. I haven't accused you of this before but there's far too much homer in the pick this time around.

[/ QUOTE ]

Homer yes; affecting my choice, absolutely not. 30th, 27th...etc it doesn't matter. Matchups, injuries and confidence-factors, team morale are what matters. Assess those things correctly, you'll be right more often than not. All of those things favor the Falcons in my view. I didn't say that about GB, Tampa, Carolina or (wrongly) New Orleans. I say that now. I would not too surprised (although I'm not predicting) to see a BIG win (something like 27-7) by the Falcons. I would be surprised to see Chicago win by any number greater than 7. What this comes down to is value, and I see it here at +3 +117 or +3.5 -110.

As a side note, Atlanta is 4-0 in prime time games this year. 3 Monday nights and 1 Thanksgiving Thursday. There is value in that -- not by the stat itself -- but in the reasons for the stat.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

My point is if you think the Bears' D hasn't proved much against weak opponents, the Falcons' D and O hasn't proved much either against a similarly cake schedule.

Philly at home, the Jets at home, at Detroit and New Orleans at home....4-0 isn't a trend, it's a leap of faith.

edit: but hey what's new, we go back and forth on Atlanta all the time. Bears 10-6.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
My point is if you think the Bears' D hasn't proved much against weak opponents, the Falcons' D and O hasn't proved much either against a similarly cake schedule.

Philly at home, the Jets at home, at Detroit and New Orleans at home....4-0 isn't a trend, it's a leap of faith.

edit: but hey what's new, we go back and forth on Atlanta all the time. Bears 10-6.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point about the quality of opposition in prime time. I think you'll be able to add the Bears to the list as one of those weak teams and that will be known by the end of the year (after they don't win their division).

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My point is if you think the Bears' D hasn't proved much against weak opponents, the Falcons' D and O hasn't proved much either against a similarly cake schedule.

Philly at home, the Jets at home, at Detroit and New Orleans at home....4-0 isn't a trend, it's a leap of faith.

edit: but hey what's new, we go back and forth on Atlanta all the time. Bears 10-6.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point about the quality of opposition in prime time. I think you'll be able to add the Bears to the list as one of those weak teams and that will be known by the end of the year (after they don't win their division).

[/ QUOTE ]

Both squads are overrated, I'm sure of that. Home field, better defense, I'll take the home team laying the moderately low number.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

I see no value in this line.

OP sounds like he is just trying to make his analysis fit his argument.

And FWIW I watched NO run all over Atlanta three days ago.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
I see no value in this line.

OP sounds like he is just trying to make his analysis fit his argument.

And FWIW I watched NO run all over Atlanta three days ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

Watch the game again and tell me your opinion doesn't change.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

My opinion is that NO would have cruised past 200 yrds rushing if the score would have remained close.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

Weather forecast for the game:
[ QUOTE ]
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy with chance of snow showers in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 8 to 10. Chance of snow 40 percent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Should be a fun game.

Bold prediction: Atlanta takes a 7-0 halftime lead, but Grossman comes out to start the 2nd half, and Chicago rallies for a 17-7 win. Much unwarranted Super Bowl talk ensues.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving.

[/ QUOTE ]
The Bears average 130 yards a game rushing are 7th in the NFL averageing 4.3 YPC and Thomas Jones is 10th in the NFL and 5th in the NFC in rushing with 1077 yards and he missed a game vs. San Fran. Plus, Kyle Orton is their QB they run the ball...alot. That is all they can do on offense. The only way to get the Bears to stop running is get a lead on them.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bottom line here: Chicago cannot exploit Atlanta's main weakness (run defense) because both of the following are true: 1. Chicago's run offense isn't outstanding and 2. Atlanta's run defense is improving.

[/ QUOTE ]
The Bears average 130 yards a game rushing are 7th in the NFL averageing 4.3 YPC and Thomas Jones is 10th in the NFL and 5th in the NFC in rushing with 1077 yards and he missed a game vs. San Fran. Plus, Kyle Orton is their QB they run the ball...alot. That is all they can do on offense. The only way to get the Bears to stop running is get a lead on them.

[/ QUOTE ]


Bottom line for me here is, Atlanta hasn't shown the consistancy to make me believe strongly in their chances. If Vick's ribs are injured, that makes his questionable passing skills worse, on a bad weather day. If the Bears can focus on stopping the run....
The Bears' offense also inspires little faith. I don't plan on betting on this game; if forced to, I'd ride the Bears under train (10-3 ATU so far), but I haven't seen the latest line.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

Toast is the new CCx.

I'm just happy you aren't using "we" anymore in your analysis.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
Toast is the new CCx.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey now

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
Toast is the new CCx.

I'm just happy you aren't using "we" anymore in your analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]
Nah, there was always more venom in the CCx posts. If the Falcons lose this week there won't be another 20 posts ripping him.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
Toast is the new CCx.

I'm just happy you aren't using "we" anymore in your analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think my record making Falcons picks speaks for itself.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Toast is the new CCx.

I'm just happy you aren't using "we" anymore in your analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think my record making Falcons picks speaks for itself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Toast is the new CCx.

I'm just happy you aren't using "we" anymore in your analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think my record making Falcons picks speaks for itself.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly is that record?

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Toast is the new CCx.

I'm just happy you aren't using "we" anymore in your analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think my record making Falcons picks speaks for itself.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly is that record?

[/ QUOTE ]'

Actually not keeping a tally. I think I've made about 6-8 predictions and been wrong once. Perhaps someone who is following the selections will know; otherwise, you can use the search function.

By the way, my view is getting stronger as the week progresses. Vick is definitely playing (and its even possible their backup DT Lake, who dislocated a shoulder last week, may play). And the Bears are more beat up than I thought. They may be missing their starting right guard and a starting linebacker, in addition to their top 3 safeties. Atlanta should be favored in this game. More on the injury situation later.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
otherwise, you can use the search function.

[/ QUOTE ]

No thanks, I figured you might know.

Sygamel, since you're a supporter, do you happen to know off-hand?

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Toast is the new CCx.

I'm just happy you aren't using "we" anymore in your analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think my record making Falcons picks speaks for itself.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly is that record?

[/ QUOTE ]'

Actually not keeping a tally. I think I've made about 6-8 predictions and been wrong once. Perhaps someone who is following the selections will know; otherwise, you can use the search function.

By the way, my view is getting stronger as the week progresses. Vick is definitely playing (and its even possible their backup DT Lake, who dislocated a shoulder last week, may play). And the Bears are more beat up than I thought. They may be missing their starting right guard and a starting linebacker, in addition to their top 3 safeties. Atlanta should be favored in this game. More on the injury situation later.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you've just made the often faulty NFL wagering assumption that a player who starts a game (Vick) is healthy enough to play well throughout and/or even survive the full 60 minutes.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
otherwise, you can use the search function.

[/ QUOTE ]

No thanks, I figured you might know.

Sygamel, since you're a supporter, do you happen to know off-hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't trying to be a smart ass if thats how it came out. Actually, by looking at some of my old posts, you'll not only see how I've picked but begin to get a sense of my rationale. I may just be getting lucky, ut I think I'm pretty good as assessing this team and its matchups.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

I wasn't trying to question the validity of your picks or your analysis, nor did I think you were being a smartass, I was just asking if you had an overall tally of how you were doing with your picks this year. No more, no less.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

[ QUOTE ]
I wasn't trying to question the validity of your picks or your analysis, nor did I think you were being a smartass, I was just asking if you had an overall tally of how you were doing with your picks this year. No more, no less.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok...Sounds good.

Another factor I forgot to mention (and this one has 2 caveats). DeAngelo Hall is returning punts now for the Falcons. He's a little inexperienced in the pros at this (although he was an phenomenal college punt returner), but he looks like he may break a big one every time he catches one with any kind of room. Don't be surprised to see special teams play a big role in this game and Atlanta, under Joe Decamilis, is frequently one of the best in the business. Caveats are these: I don't know jack about the Bears punter and punt coverage; and despite the general good quality of the Falcons kicking and punting units, the punt return teams get a ridiculous number of block in the back and holding penalties (which obviously would neutralize any big Hall returns).

I guess my point is: watch DeAngelo this Sunday -- he's a difference maker.

Re: Falcons @ Bears: Opportunity Knocks
 

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Actually not keeping a tally. I think I've made about 6-8 predictions and been wrong once.

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If I recall correctly, I'm personally 0-2 on betting your Falcons picks.