Chatting it Up
 

Villian is pretty straightforward ABC. Tight preflop, aggressive when he hits. Button is a super-lag, and I was going for the big check raise on the flop.

I'm going to include some of Villian's chat here during the hand, because i think it's relevant to making a read. Villian hadn't said a word in the last half hour. Do you make this fold? This may be standard and I'm just trying to convince myself I'm not weak-tight, if that's the case, tell me.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Hero ($232.15)
Button ($290.02)
SB ($284.25)
BB ($204.80)
UTG ($201.65)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $8</font>, Hero calls $8, Button calls $8, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($27) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($27) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $45</font>, Button folds, UTG Pushes,

UTG:cya
Me:that has to be a straight
UTG:don't ever try to steal my pots

Hero folds.

Final Pot: $82

Re: Chatting it Up
 

The more I think about this, the more I am hating myself for this fold. Does anyone know how to do the EV calculations that would find out how much villian has to have the straight here?

I'll try -
First pot odds
pot is 27+10+45+148 = 230
103 to call
Pot with call = 333
103 to win 230 2.23:1 odds which means I need 45% equity.

So when I'm ahead we'll say he has five outs (OESD=8 outs,AA+2 outs, KJ=2 outs). This is debatable, I'm mostly just trying to work on my math.

So...

If he has the straight - I have 10 outs = ~20% equity
If he doesn't - he has 5 outs = ~90% equity

% of time I'm ahead(X)(90%)(333) - 103 =
% of time I'm behind(Y)(20%)(333) - 103 =
When the sum of the two = 0 that's the smallest percentage that he needs to be ahead.

{(X)(.9)(330)-103} + {Y(.2)(330)-103} = 0

194X + -37Y = 0
194X = 37Y
5.24X = Y

~84%

It also looks like he could have JJ or KK, meaning I don't on average have 10 outs.

Ok, so how am I actually suppose to make these calculations?

Re: Chatting it Up
 

too bad about the missed c/r.

i agree that the chat shows strength, and i highly doubt villain is saying that because he wants you to think he's strong.

it could be AQ or it could even be KK or JJ. (KK going for checkraise over super lag).

Re: Chatting it Up
 

[ QUOTE ]
The more I think about this, the more I am hating myself for this fold. Does anyone know how to do the EV calculations that would find out how much villian has to have the straight here?

I'll try -
First pot odds
pot is 27+10+45+148 = 230
103 to call
Pot with call = 333
103 to win 230 2.23:1 odds which means I need 45% equity.

So when I'm ahead we'll say he has five outs (OESD=8 outs,AA+2 outs, KJ=2 outs). This is debatable, I'm mostly just trying to work on my math.

So...

If he has the straight - I have 10 outs = ~20% equity
If he doesn't - he has 5 outs = ~90% equity

% of time I'm ahead(X)(90%)(333) - 103 =
% of time I'm behind(Y)(20%)(333) - 103 =
When the sum of the two = 0 that's the smallest percentage that he needs to be ahead.

{(X)(.9)(330)-103} + {Y(.2)(330)-103} = 0

194X + -37Y = 0
194X = 37Y
5.24X = Y

~84%

It also looks like he could have JJ or KK, meaning I don't on average have 10 outs.

Ok, so how am I actually suppose to make these calculations?

[/ QUOTE ]

This post is ENTIRELY wrong. It's actually very funny.

I don't have time to elaborate.

But just a hint. if the pot is 230. and u have 103 to call. U are right that the odds are 2.23 - 1 BUT the EQUITY you need in this case is much less than 45%.

It is 31%.

Another thing. UTG had $203 to start the hand. He puts $8 Pre-Flop and $10 on the turn. So he has arround $180 remaining. Not $148.

I know i wasn't usefull for the answer. But there are just some basic hints. I don't have time to elaborate further.

Re: Chatting it Up
 

dude, when you want to build a pot with a super-LAG, you BET. super-LAGS like to raise.

Re: Chatting it Up
 

Ya, I'm not really worried about the flop. Saying super-lag is probably a stretch and misleading. Button bets 100% of the time it's checked to him. Not just in these sort of situations, but every situation. I'm betting this flop almost all the time, but i saw this as a special opportunity.

I'm more wondering about the turn fold, and what's the correct way to do my laughable EV analysis.

Re: Chatting it Up
 

[ QUOTE ]
Button bets 100% of the time it's checked to him.

[/ QUOTE ]
Wrong. See above.

EV Analysis
 

First off, if he's ahead, he may not have the straight, he might have an overset. As a result, I will reduce your outs to 7.

I will use your assumption for when he's behind: 5 outs.

Pot: 27 + 45 + 193 = 265
To Call: 148

When ahead: Odds he improves: 41:5 = 8.2:1
When behind: Odds you improve: 39:7 = 6.8:1

Calling when Ahead = (-148 + 265*8.2)/9.2 = 220
Calling when Behind = (-148*5.8 + 265)/6.8 = -87

Let X = Number of times out of 100 you are ahead.

220X + ((100-X) * -87) = 0
220X + (-8700 + 87X) = 0
307X = 8700
X = 28

So, you've gotta be ahead 28% of the time.


Edit: FWIW, I don't think you're ahead that often.