Run the chopped pot play?
 

Here's a spot where I decided to run the chopped pot play when the board paired 3's on the turn. Do you guys require more information before running this play?

I think perhaps a check/call, check/raise river all-in based on his bet size would be better. If he is value betting aggressively I can lay it down, but if it feels like Ax I can put in a big raise and take it down. In this hand, the timing of villain's turn call (very fast) made me think he probably didn't have a monster. He could also have the diamond draw which whiffed unless he had Kd Td. He may even lay down AK after that nasty river.

In the future, I think it is prudent to have more information.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero ($245.10)
CO ($234.35)
Button ($28.85)
SB ($198)
BB ($301.95)
UTG ($86.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, CO calls $7, Button calls $7, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $5.

Flop: ($29) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $22</font>, CO calls $22, Button folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($73) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $60</font>, CO calls $60.

River: ($193) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero calls $156.10 (All-In)...

Re: Run the chopped pot play?
 

So you are sure AJ, AQ and A3 are not in villain's range?

Re: Run the chopped pot play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
So you are sure AJ, AQ and A3 are not in villain's range?

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely not. That's why I feel like this play was reckless.

However, I do think that for the most part when an opponent has a AJ or A3, they at least give some thought to my turn bet, and how they might get the rest of my money. As opposed to just insta calling.

AQ on the other hand is a problem.

Re: Run the chopped pot play?
 

To call that flop bet he has to have at least TPGK. JJ is a possibility. KT [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I think is a remote possiblity. I think a 3/4 pot sized bet on the river accomplishes your goal.

Re: Run the chopped pot play?
 

As opposed to 4/5 pot?

Are we in agreement that this play is reckless giving the lack of information I have?

Re: Run the chopped pot play?
 

any reads on this guy? In my experience most people aren't calling a raise without AJ-AK and some people are folding the AJ and maybe even the AQ...not sure though. The only thing you are beating is the diamond draw and you are tied with AT and under. That Queen was a very bad card. I don't absolutely hate the play but I think you could have bet a lot less and gotten the same results if you were going for a fold here.

Re: Run the chopped pot play?
 

I don't see how I could bet any less on the river and expect a fold from AT.

Re: Run the chopped pot play?
 

[ QUOTE ]
As opposed to 4/5 pot?

Are we in agreement that this play is reckless giving the lack of information I have?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Poker is about pushing your edges and I don't see enough of an edge here to justify a push.