98s.
 

Villain:

{{Icon: TP preflop, but Agg postflop.
Hands: 949
VP$IP: 15
PFR: 6
Agg-Factor: 3.0
W$SD: 39
Won: ($416)}}

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

UTG ($241.80)
UTG+1 ($190)
MP1 ($309.10)
MP2 ($91.50)
Hero ($200)
CO ($466.85)
Button ($504.05)
SB ($200.75)
BB ($96.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($9) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $15.

Turn: ($49) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $20</font>, Hero ??
-----

Re: 98s.
 

Makes it 65...

Re: 98s.
 

Call and call river.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Call and call river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm with this guy. I see monsters though.

Re: 98s.
 

Alright, this whole naked statement thing has really got to stop. Do you really think you guys help me by telling me what you would do with absolutely no logic behind your statement? Assign some [censored] hands for Villain or something.. this has happened in the past 30 threads I've made and it's getting annoying.

Either I'm just being a nit, which I am definitely not, or this forum is being a bitch.

http://i.timeinc.net/ew/dynamic/imgs...46__hulk_l.jpg

Re: 98s.
 

Man its like.. the standard on 2+2.

Re: 98s.
 

Dude, chill. You'd also get better responses with reads on villain other than PT stats.

I can see call/call as being a nice conservative line to take with the benefit of you'll get to showdown and then you'll have a nice read to tell us about next time you play a hand against this guy. However, I'd probably raise with the intention of folding to a 3bet and reevaluating if he donks again on the river (checking behind if he doesn't). I think he has 86 here a ton of the time and will call a turn raise but not a river bet.

Re: 98s.
 

But anyway yeah.. I say call and call river without reasoning because I've already explained why calling down here is superior to raising too many times.

Raising accomplishes absolutely nothing here.. what are your protecting your hand from?

A set?

no hold on a set has already made the house.. you want to keep the pot small, the only thing that calls a turn raise is a house or maybe the smaller straight, unlikely though.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, chill. You'd also get better responses with reads on villain other than PT stats.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd also have better reads if there weren't 50,000 playing on Stars at any given time. Me lacking a better read is no excuse for naked advice, which is all too common. In fact, my read has nothing to do with anything in this argument dude.


[ QUOTE ]
I think he has 86 here a ton of the time and will call a turn raise but not a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

VPIP of 15 over 950 hands has 86 UTG+1?


[ QUOTE ]
Raising accomplishes absolutely nothing here.. what are your protecting your hand from?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't thinking of raising. I was thinking of folding against this player and possibly calling.


[ QUOTE ]
no hold on a set has already made the house.. you want to keep the pot small, the only thing that calls a turn raise is a house or maybe the smaller straight, unlikely though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, so what are we putting Villain on.


[ QUOTE ]
I say call and call river without reasoning

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't even know what the river is. You don't even put Villain on a hand. You just blindly decide you will call down no matter what. I like your style.

Re: 98s.
 

Turn bet is so weak and putting him on a hand is hard here. If he turned his boat would he really lead? Is he capable of limping A6s, 46s, or 86s? Those are the only hands I can really see you as being ahead of (possibly 44, 88, and 99 as well) .

I don't like a raise on the turn because if he does have just a lone 6 and decides to push, that's very hard to call. I'd call turn and see what happens on the river. If he makes it half pot or less on the river I'd consider raising.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Turn bet is so weak and putting him on a hand is hard here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think it is weak?


[ QUOTE ]
If he turned his boat would he really lead?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know. I lead a lot with hands like these, but I'd venture a guess and say that I am better than the majority of the players at my level.


[ QUOTE ]
Is he capable of limping A6s, 46s, or 86s?

[/ QUOTE ]

86s, possibly.. some players really love SCs, but with 15 VPIP, doubtful. I also doubt he's calling my raise with it. He's a tight player and I assume he knows I am solid, so he's not calling that much with his crappy transparent draw. A6s? Not a chance, I raised his $5 bet to $20.. he isn't calling with A6. He should be putting me on a set here, that's how I'd be playing one.


[ QUOTE ]
I'd call turn and see what happens on the river. If he makes it half pot or less on the river I'd consider raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have narrowed it down to this or fold.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like your style.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks.

I call down here because he could have the smaller straight or something like 88 possibly TT, depends how much respect villain has for you I guess..

Re: 98s.
 

Yes, with a VPIP of 15 over 950 hands, he is limping UTG+1 with 84 and 43. I suppose it's possible he leads with 88 and TT after my raise, suspecting I am drawing, if so.. good bet.

Re: 98s.
 

It sounds like you've decided he can't have anything but a boat so why post the hand? You're drawing dead to a boat so its a clear fold even if he bets the minimum. I think you see 44 and 88 enough of the time to at least try to get to showdown (barring an 8, 4, or 6 river of course).

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn bet is so weak and putting him on a hand is hard here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think it is weak?

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting 2/5 pot I consider weak, until proven otherwise (ie raise).



[ QUOTE ]
...I assume he knows I am solid, so he's not calling that much with his crappy transparent draw...He should be putting me on a set here, that's how I'd be playing one.

[/ QUOTE ]

One thing I've noticed between this and your 97s post is that you're putting alot of faith in your opponents reads on you. This thinking is going to be a huge advantage to you as you move up (especially $600NL+) but I think you may be putting too much value into image and folding equity at $200NL? People want to make hands on rivers and see showdowns.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd call turn and see what happens on the river. If he makes it half pot or less on the river I'd consider raising.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have narrowed it down to this or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't fold for 2/5 bet on the turn. I'm not going to speculate the river because there are numerous scare cards that could come, but assuming it's a blank (I'd like to see big cards on the river) I'd call a half-pot - 2/3 pot bet and raise any of his weak-ass fraction bets.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
It sounds like you've decided he can't have anything but a boat so why post the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have decided he can't have 84, 43, A6, or 86. A somewhat small overpair is somewhat possible. 88, maybe, but doubtful IMO. 44, almost no chance at all.

I posted the hand because I figured I'd get good responses that'd help me put him on a hand.. not nearly impossible gapped connectors from EP on a player with a VPIP in the 10s.


[ QUOTE ]
Betting 2/5 pot I consider weak, until proven otherwise (ie raise).

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the amount of the bet is nearly as important as the action that precedes it. He just lead into me again, OOP, after I reraised him big on the flop. Usually a weak lead here, which I don't consider $20 into $49 pot, is a draw.


[ QUOTE ]
One thing I've noticed between this and your 97s post is that you're putting alot of faith in your opponents reads on you.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also don't see this. If anything it's my reads on my opponents.


[ QUOTE ]
This thinking is going to be a huge advantage to you as you move up (especially $600NL+) but I think you may be putting too much value into image and folding equity at $200NL?

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually don't put much stock into this whole image thing. I don't advertise bluffs much at all. Recognizing my opponent as a decent and thinking player is as far as that stuff goes for me. Him recognizing me as the same comes with that territory.


[ QUOTE ]
People want to make hands on rivers and see showdowns.

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur, but when I have 950 hands on a person that show he is a very tight player, I disregard the default read on players at $200 NL.


[ QUOTE ]
Don't fold for 2/5 bet on the turn. I'm not going to speculate the river because there are numerous scare cards that could come, but assuming it's a blank (I'd like to see big cards on the river) I'd call a half-pot - 2/3 pot bet and raise any of his weak-ass fraction bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alrighty..

Re: 98s.
 

-----
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

UTG ($241.80)
UTG+1 ($190)
MP1 ($309.10)
MP2 ($91.50)
Hero ($200)
CO ($466.85)
Button ($504.05)
SB ($200.75)
BB ($96.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($9) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $15.

Turn: ($49) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $20</font>, Hero calls $20.

River: ($89) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $40</font>, Hero ??
-----

Re: 98s.
 

I think with this player, you shouldn't raise. I can see him limping in EP with 88-TT (possibly JJ). His turn bet is either a boat or a probe with his overpair. If you raise, he'll fold his overpair and repop with a boat. If he's sort of competent, he might start thinking his hand is still good on the river, and may throw out a blocker. I still you can't raise the river though. I would call and call about a 1/2 pot bet on the river.

Re: 98s.
 

I call the river.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
His turn bet is either a boat or a probe with his overpair. If you raise, he'll fold his overpair and repop with a boat. If he's sort of competent, he might start thinking his hand is still good on the river, and may throw out a blocker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, sounds about right. If he bets again with 88-TT I am screwed. I don't think he would, though. If he put me on a draw with an 8, I missed, so he'd just check and let me bluff.. assuming he thinks on this level, which is probably a stretch. Anyway, he can't expect me to have anything but a set myself, possibly 2 pair (on flop) or the straight.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you said.. we still have him on 84o?

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you said.. we still have him on 84o?

[/ QUOTE ]

No it's sooooooooted, obviously. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I put him on overpair more than 1 time in 4.

Re: 98s.
 

I don't like raising turn or river. Raising scares away the hands he may have that you are ahead of, and costs you the more money/the showdown if you are behind, which is very likely here. If you want to continue with the hand on the turn, don't raise. Let him put more money in with his overpair. With his stats, and given the action, an overpair is possible but not exactly likely, and a weaker straight is very very unlikely. Therefor its either call or fold, and I don't think folding here against this guy is too big of a mistake, if one at all. With those stats, this guy's play screams nut peddled boat. Why would he make such a weak lead with overpair on the turn with an overpair on a board that scary in a limped pot? 88-JJ are possible, and he does have an aggression factor of 3, so calling him down seems somewhat reasonable. I think I may muck turn face up on a good day though.

Re: 98s.
 

There are lots of cards that would cause much grief on the river - I agree with others that would put him on 88-10 here (he seems to raise enough pf to be raising JJ+ here)

SO any 8,9,10 and maybe J+ if for some reason he limped with them are problems given the paired board.

I say he has 88 and puts you on over cards, possibly an over pair but bets due to his many outs even if you have a better pair. Once you called his turn bet he gets nervous and blocks river with the intention of folding to a raise (?)

I dont see him having any SC...maybe 77?

I guess I call down but feel I am seeing monsters under the bed here.

Re: 98s.
 

-----
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed)

UTG ($241.80)
UTG+1 ($190)
MP1 ($309.10)
MP2 ($91.50)
Hero ($200)
CO ($466.85)
Button ($504.05)
SB ($200.75)
BB ($96.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($9) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $15.

Turn: ($49) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $20</font>, Hero calls $20.

River: ($89) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $40</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $129

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG+1 doesn't show.
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $129. </font>
-----

Re: 98s.
 

Yuck.

I think you see an overpair here a lot.

Re: 98s.
 

flop action doesn't look like a set, maybe two pair or an overpair.

raising turn to $60 makes the river (if you get to it) so much easier.

and, yeah, relax a little.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
flop action doesn't look like a set, maybe two pair or an overpair.


[/ QUOTE ]

In what way?

Re: 98s.
 

call river. U need to be ahead here less than 25%...U are probably ahead here ~60%.

Re: 98s.
 

from my experience people that lead flops with sets like to three bet them on the flop ESPECIALLY when a lot of turns will kill their action and they are out of position. also who the hell would flat call the flop with a set then lead into you on the turn for 1/2 the pot? if they are getting "tricky" on the flop then they will continue to play "tricky" on the turn.

Re: 98s.
 

If you called the turn bet, why aren't you calling the river bet? I don't get it. I think there's a fair amount of time that villian has over pair and missed draw + bluff to make the call profitable.

Any reads?

Re: 98s.
 

That lead is tricky to me.. he expects me to raise it.


[ QUOTE ]
call river. U need to be ahead here less than 25%...U are probably ahead here ~60%.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure?


[ QUOTE ]
I think there a fair amount of time that villian has over pair and missed draw + bluff to make the call profitable.


[/ QUOTE ]

I just didn't put him on those hands at the time.. still don
t, really. Was convinced I was beat. Possibly a bad laydown. I'm not losing sleep.

Re: 98s.
 

I think adding your own thoughts in the OP help spurn a good discussion about the deeper parts of the hand.

So PT tells us this guy is really tight. Is this a weak lead on the flop, or standard? After he calls your raise, I put him on sets or something like 44,88-1010.

His turn lead is either trying to get a cheap showdown or do a donk-style "milking" of you with his newly found boat. Which kind of opponent is this? The kind that mini-bets his big hands because he's afraid of folding, or the kind that makes little bets in hopes you won't make him have to fold? Is he so aggressive post-flop that he'll do this with overs? Either way, I like calling and calling river. This makes the most from a weak hand, and loses the least to a bigger hand. I think raising at any point makes the worse hands go away.

Overall, PT stats are good, but they can mean different things for different players. I like to run PT for about a half hour to get a feel of the tables, and then open up GT+. This makes the stats I get more reliable, and helps work in my personal reads with PT's.

Re: 98s.
 

I see a very tight player doing the exact same things with a small overpair, or also AA. River looks like a really bad fold IMO. Call/call is definitely best. I'd also raise the flop more, he's a tight player who limped UTG and then led a 765 flop, he's got a good hand in this spot.

-SmileyEH

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
call river. U need to be ahead here less than 25%...U are probably ahead here ~60%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno about the 60% part but....puke. Call the river.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd also raise the flop more, he's a tight player who limped UTG and then led a 765 flop, he's got a good hand in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

A good hand in this spot isn't a small overpair.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd also raise the flop more, he's a tight player who limped UTG and then led a 765 flop, he's got a good hand in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

A good hand in this spot isn't a small overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

My two comments aren't contradictory. Not only do they occur in different spots in the hand, I also said that by the river a small overpair or AA is consistent with the opponent's line, not most likely. Snide remarks like yours are really pointless if you actually want to discuss the merits of the hand, otherwise don't bother posting it.

-SmileyEH

Re: 98s.
 

Uh, a 15/6 limping UTG+1 after an UTG limper is consistant with AA?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Villain wasn't the utg limper, he limped AFTER an UTG limper in UTG+1. If you want to discuss the hand, at least look at what is going on in it.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Uh, a 15/6 limping UTG+1 after an UTG limper is consistant with AA?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Villain wasn't the utg limper, he limped AFTER an UTG limper in UTG+1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've seen it done...regardless, take AA out of his hand range and it's still a call on the river.

-SmileyEH

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Snide remarks like yours are really pointless if you actually want to discuss the merits of the hand, otherwise don't bother posting it.

[/ QUOTE ]

That wasn't a snide remark. It was a legit comment about the possible holdings of Villain. I don't see how you can both put him on a "good hand" on the flop, which I don't consider a small overpair to be, while putting him on a different holding as the hand progresses. You've seen every street now, put him on a hand for good, or at least try and make it clear which street your read is for.

Aces in this spot is ludicrous.


[ QUOTE ]
I've seen it done...regardless, take AA out of his hand range and it's still a call on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

And what does he have? The small overpair that can stand raises 4x his current lead and then lead again on the turn? That's definitely possible if he thinks I am bluffing, but I doubt he does. 88 is about all I see here. Does a PFR of 6 raise TT and up from this spot? I know I usually do and my PFR is the same.

I guess we'll never know. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]