How much premium to want a call?
 

Here is a hypothetical situation I've been thinking about lately.

Early in a 10-player SNG. Blinds 10/15, all 10 players in.

You have 950, opponent has 950, pot is 200 (other players have folded). It is the turn round and you know your opponent has exactly a 25% chance to win the pot. There will be no betting on the river. Suppose you know the maximum amount your opponent will call. How high would this amount need to be before you would bet this amount and not 1 chip more to get a fold?

Note that the chipEV of your opponent folding is +200.

Paul

Re: How much premium to want a call?
 

This is why we have ICM.

BTW, this problem changes a lot due to implied odds.

Re: How much premium to want a call?
 

I voted "150," though really I'd prefer a bet size that would give me a ChipEV of around 230-235.