Riverbluff +EV?
 

Villain is 84/0 and WSD 40

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button folds.

River: (7.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets...</font>

But after missing, do you think a riverbluff is +EV?

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

When I play hands like this I start thinking, If they will call a bb on the turn, they'll proably call one on the river. With 9 high, I would check fold.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 84/0 and WSD 40

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button folds.

River: (7.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets...</font>

But after missing, do you think a riverbluff is +EV?

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It depends on what hands you think villain has. Would he chase KTo after the ace falls? If so, then your bet probably has value. Would he chase a gutshot to the river in the face of all of the betting? Then your river bet has a little more value. If the only thing you're driving out are better missed flush draws, then your bet is bad.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

If your opponnent likes to chase, he could have many hands that beat 9 high but that he will fold on the river.

The texture of the board changes things, here the A falling on 4th street makes it "technically" impossible for someone to keep chasing with just overcards.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If your opponnent likes to chase, he could have many hands that beat 9 high but that he will fold on the river.

The texture of the board changes things, here the A falling on 4th street makes it "technically" impossible for someone to keep chasing with just overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it wasn't against a random person, but against an ultraloose 84%vpip person.... He really can have any two in his hands.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

I would be less inclined to bet because you have two of the diamonds for the flush draw and two of the cards for the straight draw. Odds-wise, then it is less likely that he was on a draw. It becomes more likely he has a hand that he will call with that will beat you. Check.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

Check fold. He will call you down. WSD at 40% is very high and maybe he only has a small pocket pair, but thats the winner.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

That really depends on your opponent of course. Any reads? If you could put him on the flush draw, or another draw, then definitely bet. But in the fish pond, someone could call you down win an underpair.

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Ok, now that I read this:[ QUOTE ]
Well, it wasn't against a random person, but against an ultraloose 84%vpip person.... He really can have any two in his hands.

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Don't bet. Although we like the fact that he may have really weak cards, he's going to call you with K-high or worse here.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
That really depends on your opponent of course. Any reads? If you could put him on the flush draw, or another draw, then definitely bet. But in the fish pond, someone could call you down win an underpair.

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Ok, now that I read this:[ QUOTE ]
Well, it wasn't against a random person, but against an ultraloose 84%vpip person.... He really can have any two in his hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't bet. Although we like the fact that he may have really weak cards, he's going to call you with K-high or worse here.

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Well, but look at it from another point of view.
Would you risk it, that both check and he shows you Q high and takes the pot and you know there was a real good chance he would have folded that crap and you now lost that whole pot to save one bet.
I know everybody hates to lose pots this way and from a psychological point of view it's definately +EV [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Also, I think the 84%vpip don't always mean that they always see the showdown.
Some like to see every flop and then fold when they miss, some always want to see what the river brings and fold there UI or with bottom pair, and some play the sherriff.
Now the question is, with any two starting hands and chasing to the river, is there any value in betting the river here?

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Ok, now that I read this:[ QUOTE ]
Well, it wasn't against a random person, but against an ultraloose 84%vpip person.... He really can have any two in his hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't bet. Although we like the fact that he may have really weak cards, he's going to call you with K-high or worse here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't be absurd. King-high and worse are not calling down.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

According to Pokerstove, you have about 12.5% equity on the river. So if you got called the pot would be 9.25 BB. So if he really called down with any random hand, yes this is barely profitable. But it is very marginal. I don't think any player will call with 85 or worse in his hand here.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
According to Pokerstove, you have about 12.5% equity on the river. So if you got called the pot would be 9.25 BB. So if he really called down with any random hand, yes this is barely profitable. But it is very marginal. I don't think any player will call with 85 or worse in his hand here.

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You don't bluff because you want to get called.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
According to Pokerstove, you have about 12.5% equity on the river. So if you got called the pot would be 9.25 BB. So if he really called down with any random hand, yes this is barely profitable. But it is very marginal. I don't think any player will call with 85 or worse in his hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]
ahem, I don't think I will win the hand ever if I get called

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

Obviously, I agree. I'm just responding to xenthebrain's post:

Now the question is, with any two starting hands and chasing to the river, is there any value in betting the river here?

BTW, your name is Aaron W. Aaron Weil? This is Sam. Proud.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously, I agree. I'm just responding to xenthebrain's post:

Now the question is, with any two starting hands and chasing to the river, is there any value in betting the river here?

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Just because I used the word value it doesn't necessarily mean that I want to get called by a worse hand.
The value I'm talking about comes only from folding equity.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

Perhaps I exaggerated a bit, but you haven't see 80%+ players call down with ridiculous hands?

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps I exaggerated a bit, but you haven't see 80%+ players call down with ridiculous hands?

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Not with hands that weak, no... with the exception of really scary boards where they just want to see if the other guy has it and this board isn't nearly scary enough (I'm thinking double-paired boards, 4-flushes, etc). There are lots of times where they may *SHOW* those hands on the river, but that's because the river got checked through.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, your name is Aaron W. Aaron Weil? This is Sam. Proud.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, you've got the wrong Aaron W.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

When I go through my hand histories and analyze specific hands, I am sometimes shocked by what my opponents call down with. I'd post some of them here but they would be worthless and I might even get chastized for no-content-posting. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

Aaron,

I understand this
[ QUOTE ]
It depends on what hands you think villain has. Would he chase KTo after the ace falls? If so, then your bet probably has value. Would he chase a gutshot to the river in the face of all of the betting? Then your river bet has a little more value.

[/ QUOTE ]

but not this:
[ QUOTE ]
If the only thing you're driving out are better missed flush draws, then your bet is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that getting any better hand to fold has value. I guess "bad" has me confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If the only thing you're driving out are better missed flush draws, then your bet is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that getting any better hand to fold has value. I guess "bad" has me confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
He will only rarely be on a missed flush and even if I will occasionaly bluff him out when he missed a flush the majority of the time I will lose.
So when I will only succeed when he was on a flushdraw the bet would be -EV in the long run.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Aaron,

I understand this
[ QUOTE ]
It depends on what hands you think villain has. Would he chase KTo after the ace falls? If so, then your bet probably has value. Would he chase a gutshot to the river in the face of all of the betting? Then your river bet has a little more value.

[/ QUOTE ]

but not this:
[ QUOTE ]
If the only thing you're driving out are better missed flush draws, then your bet is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that getting any better hand to fold has value. I guess "bad" has me confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

When you're bluffing the river, you've got to figure out how many hands villain will fold that are better than yours, and how many he will call that are better than yours. If villain would chase all sorts of draws, then this increases the number of hands that will fold to the river bet which are better than hero's hand (you win when you fold out a better hand). If there are very few hands that villain would chase, then a bet is bad because it's much more likely he has a pair and will call hero's bluff.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

Dude, he's got an 80% VP and a 40% WSD? My WSD is barely over 30% and my VP is only 18%. This guy is showing down absolute garbage.

DO NOT TRY TO BLUFF THE FISH.

You win gobs of money off these guys by flopping top pair and having them chase you down with their pocket 4s or whatever. The corrolary to that is that you cannot expect to bluff them.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, he's got an 80% VP and a 40% WSD? My WSD is barely over 30% and my VP is only 18%. This guy is showing down absolute garbage.

DO NOT TRY TO BLUFF THE FISH.

You win gobs of money off these guys by flopping top pair and having them chase you down with their pocket 4s or whatever. The corrolary to that is that you cannot expect to bluff them.

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Showing down "absolute garbage" results in a WSD that looks like 60-80%. 40% WSD is probably showing down most mid-pairs and folding the bottom pair and high card hands. The fact that the board was paired decreases the chance that he has a pair. Therefore, you must consider the types of draws villain could have had.

I don't know why you think that having an 18 VPIP and 30 WSD really makes you that much tighter than villain postflop. You're seeing the showdown 75% of the times he is when you both see the flop (could also be much closer because of the likely sample size issue). That's *NOT* a whole lot more. It's just that you see significantly fewer flops.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

check the turn dude - you're frequently going to get raised there.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is 84/0 and WSD 40

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[ QUOTE ]
Riverbluff +EV?

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Generally, no. In this hand, no.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
check the turn dude - you're frequently going to get raised there.

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Even on the turn, you've got equity against a fish. 15 outs? That's around 32% to win on the river assuming he has a pair. If he does not, you have 21 outs (assumption you are not outkicked for simplicity). That's almost 42%. Plus you only need at least 18% fold equity on the turn to make your bet at worst break even. Even fish fold more than 1 in 5 on the turn to continued aggression.

On the issue of getting raised, you're not losing much: 18% on your bets. Unless he has a set which is unlikely. In that case you have about 22 or 23% equity. So you lose a little more than half a big bet. I think your fold equity is crucial for betting here and outweighs the threat of a raise.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

That's all well and good - and correct me if I'm wrong - but you're optimistically thinking that one and not both opponenets will muck when calculating fold equity; and you're also assuming neither will fold when calculating +EV draw equity.
Frequently on this board, 1 villian will fold and the PFR will raise, which would suck, no?

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

Didn't see both were there. But what about when the one on the button raises after the middle boy calls? We're definitely making money then. I like your point though.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

[ QUOTE ]
check the turn dude - you're frequently going to get raised there.

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With 15 outs this was a semi-bluff.
If both stay in it's almost an break-even bet. I don't have an equity edge (it's really close), but with the small fold equity I get I thought betting is superior to check-calling.

On such a drawheavy board I bet the river because there were a lot of draws villain could have been chasing and a bluff would only need to succeed like 1 in 5 times.

In this particular example however, to solve the mystery, villain folded.