Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

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If the only thing you're driving out are better missed flush draws, then your bet is bad.

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I would think that getting any better hand to fold has value. I guess "bad" has me confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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He will only rarely be on a missed flush and even if I will occasionaly bluff him out when he missed a flush the majority of the time I will lose.
So when I will only succeed when he was on a flushdraw the bet would be -EV in the long run.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

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Aaron,

I understand this
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It depends on what hands you think villain has. Would he chase KTo after the ace falls? If so, then your bet probably has value. Would he chase a gutshot to the river in the face of all of the betting? Then your river bet has a little more value.

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but not this:
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If the only thing you're driving out are better missed flush draws, then your bet is bad.

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I would think that getting any better hand to fold has value. I guess "bad" has me confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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When you're bluffing the river, you've got to figure out how many hands villain will fold that are better than yours, and how many he will call that are better than yours. If villain would chase all sorts of draws, then this increases the number of hands that will fold to the river bet which are better than hero's hand (you win when you fold out a better hand). If there are very few hands that villain would chase, then a bet is bad because it's much more likely he has a pair and will call hero's bluff.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

Dude, he's got an 80% VP and a 40% WSD? My WSD is barely over 30% and my VP is only 18%. This guy is showing down absolute garbage.

DO NOT TRY TO BLUFF THE FISH.

You win gobs of money off these guys by flopping top pair and having them chase you down with their pocket 4s or whatever. The corrolary to that is that you cannot expect to bluff them.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

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Dude, he's got an 80% VP and a 40% WSD? My WSD is barely over 30% and my VP is only 18%. This guy is showing down absolute garbage.

DO NOT TRY TO BLUFF THE FISH.

You win gobs of money off these guys by flopping top pair and having them chase you down with their pocket 4s or whatever. The corrolary to that is that you cannot expect to bluff them.

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Showing down "absolute garbage" results in a WSD that looks like 60-80%. 40% WSD is probably showing down most mid-pairs and folding the bottom pair and high card hands. The fact that the board was paired decreases the chance that he has a pair. Therefore, you must consider the types of draws villain could have had.

I don't know why you think that having an 18 VPIP and 30 WSD really makes you that much tighter than villain postflop. You're seeing the showdown 75% of the times he is when you both see the flop (could also be much closer because of the likely sample size issue). That's *NOT* a whole lot more. It's just that you see significantly fewer flops.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

check the turn dude - you're frequently going to get raised there.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

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Villain is 84/0 and WSD 40

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Riverbluff +EV?

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Generally, no. In this hand, no.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

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check the turn dude - you're frequently going to get raised there.

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Even on the turn, you've got equity against a fish. 15 outs? That's around 32% to win on the river assuming he has a pair. If he does not, you have 21 outs (assumption you are not outkicked for simplicity). That's almost 42%. Plus you only need at least 18% fold equity on the turn to make your bet at worst break even. Even fish fold more than 1 in 5 on the turn to continued aggression.

On the issue of getting raised, you're not losing much: 18% on your bets. Unless he has a set which is unlikely. In that case you have about 22 or 23% equity. So you lose a little more than half a big bet. I think your fold equity is crucial for betting here and outweighs the threat of a raise.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

That's all well and good - and correct me if I'm wrong - but you're optimistically thinking that one and not both opponenets will muck when calculating fold equity; and you're also assuming neither will fold when calculating +EV draw equity.
Frequently on this board, 1 villian will fold and the PFR will raise, which would suck, no?

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

Didn't see both were there. But what about when the one on the button raises after the middle boy calls? We're definitely making money then. I like your point though.

Re: Riverbluff +EV?
 

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check the turn dude - you're frequently going to get raised there.

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With 15 outs this was a semi-bluff.
If both stay in it's almost an break-even bet. I don't have an equity edge (it's really close), but with the small fold equity I get I thought betting is superior to check-calling.

On such a drawheavy board I bet the river because there were a lot of draws villain could have been chasing and a bluff would only need to succeed like 1 in 5 times.

In this particular example however, to solve the mystery, villain folded.